6 - Elite Misperception and Election-Related Violence

Summary

Chapter 6 addressed the puzzle of why politicians employ violence as an electoral tactic in Kenya when the benefits of doing so are uncertain at best. Data from survey experiments with politicians that parallel those conducted with voters – as well as evidence from qualitative interviews – show that, contrary to what the literature assumes, politicians misperceive the effects of violence and violent ethnic rhetoric on voter preferences over candidates for office, underestimating the size and breadth of voter backlash against the use of these tactics. This misperception explains why election-related violence continues to occur in Kenya despite its questionable efficacy as an electoral tactic. Furthermore, access to information alone does not appear to be enough to correct politicians misperceptions in this domain. Elite misperception can explain why violence occurs in the course of electoral competition even when its efficacy is in doubt.