5 - STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Changes in technology are likely to be found at the root of many instances where workers are no longer required in some older, declining, industry, while there are vacancies in new industries, requiring different skills, or located in different places. But there are other possible sources of industrial change. As real income rises, there is a tendency in advanced countries for shifts to occur, from agriculture to manufacturing, and from manufacturing to services. No doubt the very increase in real income originates in technical progress in some sectors, but some derived changes in the pattern of demand may not have a technological base. Another, and recent, industrial change was brought about by the discovery of reserves of oil under the North Sea. Exploration and development were already under way in the early 1970s, and when, at the end of 1973, OPEC–the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries – succeeded in quadrupling the world price of oil, rapid expansion became extremely profitable. The first oil came on stream in 1975 and within five years Britain, starting from a position in which virtually all its oil was imported, had reached self-sufficiency and was about to begin a spell as a net exporter. Prior to the North Sea oil, British oil imports had to be paid for by exports of manufactures or of services, such as shipping, banking or insurance. North Sea oil meant that fewer such exports were needed to achieve any given balance in the current account.