Chapter 19 - Globalization and South Asia

Summary

South Asia has the highest density of futurists in the world – we call them astrologers. Their methodology for making predictions involves stars and planets and generous doses of credulity. Since I don't have access to their methods, I will have to attempt this exercise using what I know: some core principles and a theory about understanding long-term change.

First, if we begin from a limited understanding of globalization – that it is primarily an economic and cultural phenomenon, that too of recent vintage – then we won't get very far, certainly not to 2060. It is necessary, for sure, to pay attention to economics and culture, and I will do so in this essay. But, I believe, it is necessary to begin by thinking of globalization in terms of ideologies and institutions that create the framework of interactions at a global scale. In this sense, globalization has existed from the time global interaction has been possible; what has changed is the intensity and nature of the interactions, which in turn have been guided by ideologies and institutions.

Second, there is a serious problem with extrapolation. It assumes that the rate and direction of change follows a linear logic. This is similar to a core problem in evolution: is it incremental (an accumulation of minute changes over a very long time) or is it discontinuous (there are accumulated minute changes, no doubt, but there are periods of dramatic and large change)?