Preface

Summary

Regional Outlook was launched in 1992. Designed for the busy executive, professional, diplomat, journalist, and interested observer who face severe time constraints, this annual offers a succinct analysis of political and economic trends in the countries of Southeast Asia and the outlook for the forthcoming two years.

The year 2003 was a difficult one for countries in this part of the world. The SARS virus not only took lives but also dramatized how a non-conventional security threat could spread so easily and quickly. One blessing in this crisis was that it helped the countries in the region to work closely together to contain the virus. In contrast, the U.S. war in Iraq was a rather more contentious issue. When it came to finding common ground in ASEAN, there was none. Member states took very different positions, which only served to underscore the deep strategic differences lurking beneath the appearance of a united ASEAN. Terrorism continues to cast a long shadow. Indonesia, not quite recovered from the Bali bomb incident in October 2002, had another major terrorist attack in its capital Jakarta on 5 August 2003. All these resulted in a more complex and uncertain strategic environment.

Southeast Asia suffered a set-back on its road to economic recovery in 2003. Regional economies were particularly affected by the Iraq war and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. Nevertheless, the impact of SARS on the region has turned out to be less damaging than earlier anticipated. The epidemic which broke out in March 2003, was largely contained by July 2003. Although concerns continued to prevail that SARS might re-occur in the near future, the region's public health sector appeared to be better prepared to deal with the disease.

The relatively quick passing of these two major events as well as the economic recovery in the United States and Japan augur well for the region's economic outlook in 2004 and 2005.