8 - Individual-level Causes and Effects of Election Violence

Summary

This chapter shifts from the more inductive approach that guides preceding chapters to a deductive one, using survey data to test existing theories about the causes and consequences of electoral violence. In doing so, the chapter shifts the unit of analysis from the region and group-level to the individual. The chapter has two main parts. The first examines the predictors of electoral violence, focusing specifically on the role of divisive land appeals in increasing an individual’s likelihood of experiencing violence. The second part focuses on the effects of violence, asking how the experience of election violence shapes openness toward ethnic outgroups, trust in political leadership, and engagement across ethnic lines. Broadly, the chapter shows that the experience of election violence has an enduring effect on how an individual perceives and engages with her political and social world. The chapter also emphasizes that studying the effects of electoral violence helps unpack the potential endogeneity of violence, enabling scholars to better specify the mechanisms through which election violence increases or diminishes the prospects for democratic consolidation and durable peace.