12 - Conclusions

Summary

This chapter brings together the analysis of the previous chapters to summarise the main findings and provide certain conclusions. It will be apparent that some periods lend themselves more easily to conclusions at the regional level than others; in particular the period since 1979 has vastly complicated the Central American reality, shifting the balance between conformity and diversity in the region significantly in favour of the latter. While diversity has always been a feature of Central America – both between countries and within countries – conformity has been generated by the existence (at least until the 1980s) of an economic model which imposed similar options, opportunities and constraints for each republic.

A dominant theme of this chapter is macroeconomic performance, making use of the statistical appendix for the period 1920 to 1984. External conditions have heavily influenced each country's performance, but inter-country differences in growth rates still remain and require explanation. The ranking of the five republics in terms of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per head has altered over time and performance has clearly been affected by the policy-mix. ‘Getting policies right’, however, is not just a technical question, but also a political problem requiring the establishment of a minimum consensus.

Central America has pursued since 1920 (and even earlier) an export-led model, but the latter has passed through five phases each of which has carried different implications for economic and social relations.