7 - A theory of foreign policy decision making

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Having reviewed the major concepts, theoretical approaches, and empirical findings of this field, we are now in a position to integrate them into a general theory which attempts to address three fundamental issues: (1) What are the factors that influence the procedures and substantive contents of individual decision making processes in foreign policy settings? (2) What is the relationship between individual preferences and collective choice processes in such settings? (3) What are the political and other characteristics of foreign policy groups and how do these characteristics influence the processes of collective choices on foreign affairs? The fundamental premise of this analysis is that the knowledge available to date on foreign policy decision making – both of the propositions that have received some empirical support and the propositions that have not yet been subjected to empirical tests – forms a sufficient basis for a general theory of foreign policy decision making.

The theory presented in this chapter is abstract, and the extent to which its propositions conform with reality is beyond the scope of the present study. Nonetheless, since none of the elements of the theory is novel (in the sense that they represent original ideas which are in some way different from those presented in previous research), it is possible to present some preliminary evidence for the plausibility of the various propositions by using studies of decision making that have been reviewed in previous chapters.