Overshoot pathways to CO<span class='sub'>2</span> stabilization in a multi-gas context

doi:10.1017/CBO9780511619472.009

7 - Overshoot pathways to CO2 stabilization in a multi-gas context

from Part I - Climate system science

Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 December 2010

T. M. L. Wigley ,

R. G. Richels and

J. A Edmonds

Edited by

Michael E. Schlesinger ,

Haroon S. Kheshgi ,

Joel Smith ,

Francisco C. de la Chesnaye ,

John M. Reilly ,

Tom Wilson and

Charles Kolstad

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T. M. L. Wigley: Affiliation:
National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO 80307–3000, USA
R. G. Richels: Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Institute 2000 L Street NW, Suite 805 Washington, DC 20036, USA
J. A Edmonds: Affiliation:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland
Michael E. Schlesinger: Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Haroon S. Kheshgi: Affiliation:
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
Joel Smith: Affiliation:
Stratus Consulting Ltd, Boulder
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye: Affiliation:
US Environmental Protection Agency
John M. Reilly: Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tom Wilson: Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto
Charles Kolstad: Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Barbara

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Summary

Introduction

Stabilization of the climate system requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. Most work to date has considered only stabilization of CO2, where there are choices regarding both the concentration stabilization target and the pathway towards that target. Here we consider the effects of accounting for non-CO2 gases (CH4 and N2O), for different CO2 targets and different pathways. As primary cases for CO2 we use the standard “WRE” pathways to stabilization at 450 ppm or 550 ppm. We also consider a new “overshoot” concentration profile for CO2 in which concentrations initially exceed and then decline towards a final stabilization level of 450 ppm, as might occur if an initial target choice were later found to be too high.

Emissions reductions for CH4 and N2O are optimized for the different pathways using an energy-economics model (MERGE). The optimization procedure minimizes the total cost of emissions reductions. The CH4 and N2O emissions reductions lead to substantially reduced future warming and future sea-level rise relative to stabilization cases where likely emissions reductions for these gases are ignored. For central climate and sea level model parameter values the reductions are 0.3–0.4 °C and 2–3 cm in 2100 and 0.9–1.0 °C and about 14 cm in 2400. Reduced CH4 and N2O emissions also allow larger CO2 emissions by reducing the magnitude of climate feedbacks on the carbon cycle.

Type: Chapter
Information: Human-Induced Climate Change
An Interdisciplinary Assessment
, pp. 84 - 92

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511619472.009 [Opens in a new window]

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Print publication year: 2007

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