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2 - Effect of black carbon on mid-troposphere and surface temperature trends

from Part I - Climate system science

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 December 2010

By
Joyce E. Penner ,
Minghuai Wang ,
Akshay Kumar ,
Leon Rotstayn  and
Ben Santer
Edited by
Michael E. Schlesinger ,
Haroon S. Kheshgi ,
Joel Smith ,
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye ,
John M. Reilly ,
Tom Wilson  and
Charles Kolstad
Joyce E. Penner
Affiliation:
Department of Atmospheric, University of Michigan
Minghuai Wang
Affiliation:
Department of Atmospheric, University of Michigan
Akshay Kumar
Affiliation:
Bowie New Town Center, USA
Leon Rotstayn
Affiliation:
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Aspendale, Australia
Ben Santer
Affiliation:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Michael E. Schlesinger
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Haroon S. Kheshgi
Affiliation:
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
Joel Smith
Affiliation:
Stratus Consulting Ltd, Boulder
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye
Affiliation:
US Environmental Protection Agency
John M. Reilly
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tom Wilson
Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto
Charles Kolstad
Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Barbara
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Summary

Introduction

There is a continuing controversy over whether satellite-observed temperature trends in the mid and lower troposphere based on Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) satellite data since 1979 are consistent with surface-observed trends. The satellite trends are as much as 0.14 °C/decade smaller than the surface-observed trends. However, the satellite-inferred temperatures must be corrected for drifts and calibration differences between different satellites, and different procedures for doing so among different groups have led to different mid-tropospheric trend estimates. Here, we examine whether model-predicted trends are consistent with the satellite-based trends from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), and from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group. It is important to re-examine model results in light of new evidence that indicates that the inclusion of black carbon aerosols tends to cool the surface and heat the troposphere, whereas the satellite data imply the opposite. Unlike previous model studies, we include an estimate of the effects of direct forcing by fossil fuel organic matter and black carbon aerosols, and by biomass aerosols, on trend estimates, as well as direct and indirect sulfate aerosol forcing, stratospheric ozone forcing and long-lived greenhouse gas forcing. We use the quasi-steady state results from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) global climate model with a q-flux ocean model to correct transient simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) parallel climate model and from the CSIRO model that did not include the effects of fossil fuel carbon and biomass burning aerosols.

Type
Chapter
Information
Human-Induced Climate Change
An Interdisciplinary Assessment
 , pp. 18 - 33
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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