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11 - Developments in health models for integrated assessments

from Part II - Impacts and adaptation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 December 2010

By
Kristie L. Ebi  and
Sari R. Kovats
Edited by
Michael E. Schlesinger ,
Haroon S. Kheshgi ,
Joel Smith ,
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye ,
John M. Reilly ,
Tom Wilson  and
Charles Kolstad
Kristie L. Ebi
Affiliation:
Exponent Health Group USA
Sari R. Kovats
Affiliation:
Centre on Global Change and Health UK
Michael E. Schlesinger
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Haroon S. Kheshgi
Affiliation:
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
Joel Smith
Affiliation:
Stratus Consulting Ltd, Boulder
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye
Affiliation:
US Environmental Protection Agency
John M. Reilly
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tom Wilson
Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto
Charles Kolstad
Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Barbara
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Summary

Introduction

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) has facilitated the development of integrated assessment models of economic activity and the resulting anthropogenic emissions, the relevant Earth system responses to the forcings from these emissions, and the costs of policies to mitigate anthropogenic emissions. Initially these integrated assessment models focused solely on the market impacts of climate change. EMF has been a leader in developing cross-disciplinary interactions between integrated assessment modelers and health researchers, with the result that some of the recent developments in population health models arose from the EMF workshops held in Snowmass. The appropriate and robust incorporation of health impacts into integrated assessment models will help policymakers visualize the dimensions of the possible health impacts of climate change and will inform the design of climate and adaptation policy responses.

The current burden of disease due to environmental factors is considerable (WHO, 2002). If trends continue, climate change is very likely to increase the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, including morbidity and mortality due to temperature extremes, extreme weather events (i.e., floods and droughts), air pollution, food- and water-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases; some of these relationships are better understood than others (McMichael et al., 2001). Climate change is one of many factors that will affect the burden of these health outcomes. Significant changes are expected to continue to occur in major factors determining population health, such as per capita income, provision of medical care, obesity, and access to adequate nutrition, clean water, and sanitation.

Type
Chapter
Information
Human-Induced Climate Change
An Interdisciplinary Assessment
 , pp. 135 - 146
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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