Concluding Remarks: The Context for India's Energy Geopolitics

Summary

It is useful to think about why energy has such strong geopolitical overtones. There are two enormous issues within which all energy policy-making must be embedded. First, and most obviously, to the degree “energy” equals “oil and gas”, the world's predominant energy sources for transport are found in only a few concentrated areas and themselves require transport through such potential chokepoints as the Straits of Malacca. Second, as the evidence on climate change becomes rapidly more convincing and more alarming, it is becoming clear that current energy consumptions patterns around the globe are already threatening water supplies and most likely contributing to massive flooding in the region, with the associated population displacements.

Efforts to address the twin problems of geographical vulnerability and climate change will bring their own geopolitical conundrums. One oft- discussed solution to both problems is the expanded use of nuclear power. But the existing global framework for managing the associated nuclear proliferation risks is already in shambles. Moreover, serious efforts to address climate change will not only have to target fossil fuel use, but will also necessarily involve attention to deforestation and agricultural practices. The world is very far from having in place the rich network of cooperative mechanisms and institutions that will be needed to support such dramatic transformations in humanity's industrial and agricultural systems.

In short, the geopolitics of energy is a grim subject. Efforts at cooperation to date remain extraordinarily feeble compared with the scale of the problems. As then-director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Claude Mandil noted at an energy conference in October 2006, the IEA's projections of where the world is heading on energy are quite simply not compatible with reality in several ways. The growth in oil and gas consumption that would occur if governments simply continue their current policies is not compatible with global security. In addition to the well-known concerns over the security of shipment through chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca, and concerns about potential conflicts between the suppliers and consumers of oil, continued interdependence on energy risks create new points of international conflict.