Introduction

Summary

In 2011, North Africa caught the world's attention when ordinary citizens took to the streets to demand change. From Tunis to Cairo to Tripoli, North Africans succeeded in removing from power dictators who had ruled for decades, silencing the opposition, capturing state wealth and sowing division. The uprisings commonly known as the Arab Spring unleashed a decade of instability and disorder throughout much of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. Today, North Africa – defined here as Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia – is a dynamic region facing several social, economic and political challenges, many of which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with implications for the stability of the broader MENA region and beyond. From global power competition and the broken international order on display in Libya, over rising socio-economic inequality and marginalisation across Tunisia, as well as the climate change and population growth that, along with the continued fight over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, will worsen Egypt's water insecurity, to the decline of Algeria's hydrocarbons-based economies that has added further fire to the ongoing protests, each North African state – whether individually or collectively – is on the precipice of change. Furthermore, the region's geostrategic location at the nexus of Africa, Europe and the Middle East means that what happens in North Africa has broad ramifications outside of the region. And the changing geopolitical dynamics – whether the rise of Russia and China and the decline of US influence, or the intra-regional conflicts in the Middle East – has serious implications for how each country responds to the challenges at home.

A common thread running through all the region's major challenges is the broken social contract. A decade after the Arab Spring began, North Africa is in the midst of a transformation. The factors that led to the Arab Spring have not gone away. Most of the social, economic and political factors that brought people onto the streets in 2010–11 are worse today, and in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, regional governments have been exposed for their failure to deliver the effective governance (including adequate healthcare, social safety nets and stability) that the people demand.