2 - Egypt’s Waxing Challenges and Waning Power

Summary

Introduction

With a population well over 100 million and a civilisation going back more than 5,000 years, Egypt's footprint in the Middle East and North Africa is large. Located on a land bridge between Africa and Asia, Egypt has played a consequential and at times dominant regional role as recently as the mid-twentieth century and as far back as ancient times. In the late twentieth and early twenty-first century, however, Egypt has seen its traditional Arab leadership role gradually eclipsed by the Gulf States and its position in Africa diminished compared to that of rivals such as Ethiopia. Signs of these changes include Egypt's deference on many issues to Gulf States – for example, the surrender of two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia and of the struggle with Ethiopia over Nile waters.

While Egypt's large population and strategic location astride key bodies of water (the Suez Canal, the River Nile, and the Mediterranean and Red Seas) keep it ever-relevant, paradoxically it is these very same factors – people and water – that are making the Egyptian state increasingly dependent on external financing and more of a follower than a leader in regional affairs. A rapidly growing population along with inadequate economic reforms has led to a high youth unemployment rate. These factors, combined with political stagnation during the thirty-year presidency of Hosni Mubarak, made Egypt vulnerable to the wave of popular uprisings across the Arab world that began in late 2010 and resulted in the fall of Mubarak. In the decade since, Egypt experienced a military-led transition leading to the election of an Islamist-majority parliament and president, a coup abruptly ending the attempt at a democratic transition and a form of military rule under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that is far more brutal, authoritarian and rapacious than it was under Mubarak.

Amid political chaos and a state that is ever more overtly dominated by the military, the Egyptian government has become less and less capable of addressing the needs of its population. Its economy faltered during the failed democratic transition and subsequently fell ever more heavily under the sway of the military, which directed resources towards massive arms purchases and the construction of mega-projects rather than job generation and labour force development, both of which are crucial to addressing Egypt's economic challenges.