The Black Death and Mortality: A Reassessment

Summary

The pipe rolls of the bishopric of Winchester, England's best-recorded and wealthiest see in the Middle Ages, may be used to provide an account of the agricultural, demographic, economic and social conditions on the estate. This chapter has a demographic focus, examining evidence from the pipe roll of 1348–49 for the impact of the plague on fifteen Hampshire units of account. Over 50 per cent of the bishop's estate in Hampshire has been selected, with varied locations across the county from the coast to the northern reaches. Only one of these units (Cheriton) has been studied previously with regard to the Black Death. After examining the question of the arrival date of the plague in Hampshire, the vexed topic of mortality is addressed. Based on close examination of evidence from these select units, this chapter reveals the number of deaths from the Black Death on each unit of account while also addressing the question of whether the mortality rate was evenly distributed. The methodology of such calculations extracts data solely from the pipe rolls and re-examines the number of heriots received and debates their value for measuring mortality.

The Black Death was England's worst natural disaster in history. In 1347 this great plague arrived in Europe, ravaging cities and countryside alike and causing widespread depopulation and death. The Black Death swept into England from France during 1348, crossing the Channel to strike Bristol, Dorset, London, Plymouth and Southampton. Contemporary chroniclers offered various dates and locations for its first entry into England and it is probable that the bacterium arrived independently in a number of ports and coastal areas over the course of several months before spreading inland, as my research suggests. In recent decades historians have suggested that up to one half of the population of Europe died. Philip Ziegler opted for a figure of between 30 and 40 per cent; Robert Gottfried between 40 and 50 per cent and Rosemary Horrox 47 to 48 per cent. Ten years later the Norwegian demographer Professor Ole Jørgen Benedictow calculated that Europe's population dropped from eighty to thirty million as a direct consequence of the disease. Therefore an average mortality of 50 per cent does not seem unreasonable; however my research suggests a much higher mortality figure. This chapter explains my findings.