20 - Scenario development for decision making

Summary

Turning the tide is easy. Tides are after all very predictable; just wait for the right moment before pushing the water back. When it comes to re-directing a current it is far more difficult – it takes climate change to shift the Gulf Stream.

What is happening to the world's fisheries, at the local, regional, or global scale appears to be more like a one-way current than a tide with ups and downs (Pauly et al., 2003). Strong enforcement of effort restrictions may bring a relief in the parts of the world where strong governance is in place (Worm et al., 2009), while most of the world's marine ecosystems continue to be overexploited. We are gradually eroding many of the ecosystems on which our food supply from the oceans relies, even if we may not notice it as individuals (Pauly, 1995). What can we do to curb the direction of widespread degradation? It is a daunting task to embark on – one where we cannot explicitly express how we will go about solving the problem. We do, however, have an idea of, and experience with, techniques and materials we can use to deliver a small contribution toward the solution.

What is clear is that if we as scientists are to make such contributions we must speak up and seek to be heard (Baron, this volume). We must convey the best available scientific information to decision and policymakers (Reichert, this volume).