7 - Conclusion: prospects for the Gulf economies

Summary

The Gulf states have come a long way just in the years since the start of the new millennium, and much further still since Dubai began its experiment in conditional but aggressive state-led globalization in the mid-1980s. In differing ways and with different prospects for success, all six of the Arab Gulf states examined here are seeking to continue this transformation, informed by – though not merely copying – the example set by Dubai. These states entered the twenty-first century as wealthy economies and, despite the reforms that remain to be done, with largely stable political orders and economies. They are not likely to collapse in the near future, barring some dramatic unforeseeable event, despite the predictions of their demise that are sometimes made. In fact, the 2011 Arab uprisings affected the Gulf less than it did the republics, turning on its head the assumption that had reigned among observers until that point, that the monarchical systems of the Gulf were passé and that the future belonged to republican forms of government rather than monarchical ones.

This said, there are a range of global shifts taking place that will continue to test the Gulf’s leaders, put pressure on its economies, and impact its societies. Moreover, if these economies begin a period of more intense and deep economic reform, this will bring additional forces to bear on the subregion. Indeed, the pace of change across the subregion may well accelerate in the coming years, even though the basic dynamics underlying these political economies – rentierism, state capitalism, top-down strategies of elite consensus-building – will probably govern these systems for as long as hydrocarbons dominate them.

CONTINUING AND EMERGING ENERGY ISSUES

Although the centrality of oil and gas in the political economies of the Gulf is not something that is about to change any time soon, the global energy system is changing rapidly, bringing with it a new set of challenges for hydrocarbon exporters such as those of the Gulf.

As recently as the early 2000s, a fear in the subregion, and in oil importing states even more so, was of “peak oil”.