Understanding the Impact of the First Presidential Debate
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 May 2024
Presidential debates are now a fixture in the landscape of fall campaigns for the presidency. They attract worldwide media attention, as well as the interest of tens of millions of potential voters, and are held in close proximity to Election Day. In 2020, the first general election debate was a donnybrook. In this chapter, we show that citizens develop clear opinions about who won the debate and who performed well; more people viewed Biden as the winner of the first debate and his performance ratings were significantly higher than Trump’s ratings, except among Republicans. We also demonstrate that people who have low tolerance for conflict develop significantly more negative views of Trump’s performance and are significantly more likely to consider Biden the winner of the debate. Furthermore, people’s level of racism and conspiratorial thinking shape views of Trump’s and Biden’s performances during the first presidential debate. Finally, evaluations of the candidates’ performance in the debate as well as people’s views of who won the debate influence overall evaluations of Trump and Biden and produce significant changes in the ratings of Trump and Biden from September to October.
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