The aim of this study was to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of Toxoplasma gondii infection in long-term monitoring of domestic cats (8–15 years) in three populations living in rural France. Overall seroprevalence was 52·7% (modified agglutination test ⩾1:40). Incidence was 0·26–0·39 seroconversions/cat per year, and the estimated rate of soil contamination by T. gondii oocysts ranged between 31 and 3600 oocysts/m2 per year, depending on the population. Incidence risk in cats was related to mean precipitation, explaining both the spatial and temporal variability in risk: local conditions explained differences between the three study sites and incidence risk increased during rainy years. This study brings rare quantitative information on the level of contamination of the environment by T. gondii oocysts, and suggests that the spatio-temporal distribution of incidence risk in cats may reflect both the influence of rain on prey populations and infectivity of T. gondii oocysts.
