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The Leaning Tower of Pisa, used by Galileo to demonstrate the simplicity of science, is also a testament to the complexity of science. Over an 800-year period, multiple attempts were made to fix the errors in the tower’s construction that caused it to lean. Often, the fixes had unanticipated consequences, necessitating additional compensating fixes. Climate models face a similar problem. The models use approximate formulas called parameterizations, with adjustable parameters, to represent processes like clouds that are too fine to be resolved by the model grids. The optimal values of these parameters that minimize simulation errors are determined by a trial-and-error process known as “model tuning.” Tuning minimizes errors in simulating current and past climates, but it cannot guarantee that the predictions of the future will be free of errors. This means that models can be confirmed, but they cannot be proven to be correct.
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