This article introduces a comprehensive framework that effectively combines experience rating and exposure rating approaches in reinsurance for both short-tail and long-tail businesses. The generic framework applies to all nonlife lines of business and products emphasizing nonproportional treaty business. The approach is based on three pillars that enable a coherent usage of all available information. The first pillar comprises an exposure-based generative model that emulates the generative process leading to the observed claims experience. The second pillar encompasses a standardized reduction procedure that maps each high-dimensional claim object to a few weakly coupled reduced random variables. The third pillar comprises calibrating the generative model with retrospective Bayesian inference. The derived calibration parameters are fed back into the generative model, and the reinsurance contracts covering future cover periods are rated by projecting the calibrated generative model to the cover period and applying the future contract terms.

The decreasing cost and improved sensor and monitoring system technology (e.g., fiber optics and strain gauges) have led to more measurements in close proximity to each other. When using such spatially dense measurement data in Bayesian system identification strategies, the correlation in the model prediction error can become significant. The widely adopted assumption of uncorrelated Gaussian error may lead to inaccurate parameter estimation and overconfident predictions, which may lead to suboptimal decisions. This article addresses the challenges of performing Bayesian system identification for structures when large datasets are used, considering both spatial and temporal dependencies in the model uncertainty. We present an approach to efficiently evaluate the log-likelihood function, and we utilize nested sampling to compute the evidence for Bayesian model selection. The approach is first demonstrated on a synthetic case and then applied to a (measured) real-world steel bridge. The results show that the assumption of dependence in the model prediction uncertainties is decisively supported by the data. The proposed developments enable the use of large datasets and accounting for the dependency when performing Bayesian system identification, even when a relatively large number of uncertain parameters is inferred.

Data-driven analysis of complex networks has been in the focus of research for decades. An important area of research is to study how well real networks can be described with a small selection of metrics, furthermore how well network models can capture the relations between graph metrics observed in real networks. In this paper, we apply machine-learning techniques to investigate the aforementioned problems. We study 500 real-world networks along with 2000 synthetic networks generated by four frequently used network models with previously calibrated parameters to make the generated graphs as similar to the real networks as possible. This paper unifies several branches of data-driven complex network analysis, such as the study of graph metrics and their pair-wise relationships, network similarity estimation, model calibration, and graph classification. We find that the correlation profiles of the structural measures significantly differ across network domains and the domain can be efficiently determined using a small selection of graph metrics. The structural properties of the network models with fixed parameters are robust enough to perform parameter calibration. The goodness-of-fit of the network models highly depends on the network domain. By solving classification problems, we find that the models lack the capability of generating a graph with a high clustering coefficient and relatively large diameter simultaneously. On the other hand, models are able to capture exactly the degree-distribution-related metrics.

Noy-Meir's simple but insightful model of grazing-system dynamics was used to draw broader inferences from empirical data generated by a 17-year field trial with beef cattle grazing a Mediterranean grassland in northern Israel. After calibration of its parameters against the field results, the model predictions were tested against an independent set of data obtained from the study site; they were within acceptable deviations from the inherently noisy field data. The calibrated model was used to analyse the effects of changes to two key grazing-management factors – stocking density and early-season grazing deferment – on biomass dynamics and forage consumption. The simulated results were used to calculate forage deficits and supplementary feed requirements for optimum herd performance during the growth (‘green’) season and throughout the year. The results revealed a critical stocking density of 0.7 Animal Units (AU)/ha, above which early-season deferment reduced the amount of supplementary feed required to maintain the optimum production of the herd. Optimum stocking is higher when the grassland is used mainly in the highly nutritious green season. Responses of the strongly seasonal Mediterranean grassland to the interaction between stocking density and early-season grazing deferment were expressed by a calibrated model, in terms that determine the efficiency of forage supplementation of the herd during the green season and throughout the year.

What is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and, moreover, highly informative experiments via optimal experiment design. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design.

Predicting the off-target movement of agrochemicals applied to turf is an essential component for assessing risk to aquatic environments. For surface transport, a fully validated model does not exist. Such a model is required to make cost effective risk assessments and regulatory evaluations. To address this deficiency, a turf model validation program is outlined in this paper. The effect of turf characteristics on the fate and movement of pesticides is presented followed by the discussion of the selection for a proper turf runoff model. The design and implementation of small plot runoff studies and their usefulness in model validation are discussed. The procedures of model calibration and model verification are explained for model validation purpose.

We consider minimum relative entropy calibration of a given prior distribution to a finite set of moment constraints. We show that the calibration algorithm is stable (in the Prokhorov metric) under a perturbation of the prior and the calibrated distributions converge in variation to the measure from which the moments have been taken as more constraints are added. These facts are used to explain the limiting properties of the minimum relative entropy Monte Carlo calibration algorithm.