We consider the long-time behaviour of a West Nile virus (WNv) model consisting of a reaction–diffusion system with free boundaries. Such a model describes the spreading of WNv with the free boundary representing the expanding front of the infected region, which is a time-dependent interval $[g(t), h(t)]$ in the model (Lin and Zhu, Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 75, 1381–1409, 2017). The asymptotic spreading speed of the front has been determined in Wang et al. (Spreading speed for a West Nile virus model with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 79, 433–466, 2019) by making use of the associated semi-wave solution, namely $\lim _{t\to \infty } h(t)/t=\lim _{t\to \infty }[\!-g(t)/t]=c_\nu$, with $c_\nu$ the speed of the semi-wave solution. In this paper, by employing new techniques, we significantly improve the estimate in Wang et al. (Spreading speed for a West Nile virus model with free boundary. J. Math. Biol. 79, 433–466, 2019): we show that $h(t)-c_\nu t$ and $g(t)+c_\nu t$ converge to some constants as $t\to \infty$, and the solution of the model converges to the semi-wave solution. The results also apply to a wide class of analogous Ross–MacDonold epidemic models.

West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) is a severe neurological illness that can result from West Nile virus (WNV) infection, with long-term disability and death being common outcomes. Although WNV arrived in North America over two decades ago, risk factors for WNND are still being explored. The objective of this study was to identify WNND comorbid risk factors in the Ontario population using a retrospective, population-based cohort design. Incident WNV infections from laboratory records between 1 January 2002 – 31 December 2012 were individually-linked to health administrative databases to ascertain WNND outcomes and comorbid risk factors. WNND incidence was compared among individuals with and without comorbidities using risk ratios (RR) calculated with log binomial regression.

Three hundred and forty-five individuals developed WNND (18.3%) out of 1884 WNV infections. West Nile encephalitis was driving most associations with comorbidities. Immunocompromised (aRR 2.61 [95% CI 1.23–4.53]) and male sex (aRR 1.32 [95% CI 1.00–1.76]) were risk factors for encephalitis, in addition to age, for which each 1-year increase was associated with a 2% (aRR 1.02 [95% CI 1.02–1.03]) relative increase in risk. Our results suggest that individuals living with comorbidities are at higher risk for WNND, in particular encephalitis, following WNV infection.

In 2013, the national surveillance case definition for West Nile virus (WNV) disease was revised to remove fever as a criterion for neuroinvasive disease and require at most subjective fever for non-neuroinvasive disease. The aims of this project were to determine how often afebrile WNV disease occurs and assess differences among patients with and without fever. We included cases with laboratory evidence of WNV disease reported from four states in 2014. We compared demographics, clinical symptoms and laboratory evidence for patients with and without fever and stratified the analysis by neuroinvasive and non-neuroinvasive presentations. Among 956 included patients, 39 (4%) had no fever; this proportion was similar among patients with and without neuroinvasive disease symptoms. For neuroinvasive and non-neuroinvasive patients, there were no differences in age, sex, or laboratory evidence between febrile and afebrile patients, but hospitalisations were more common among patients with fever (P < 0.01). The only significant difference in symptoms was for ataxia, which was more common in neuroinvasive patients without fever (P = 0.04). Only 5% of non-neuroinvasive patients did not meet the WNV case definition due to lack of fever. The evidence presented here supports the changes made to the national case definition in 2013.

We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of West Nile patients reported in Québec in 2012 and 2013 and to document physical, mental and functional status 24 months after symptom onset according to illness severity. The cases were recruited by a public health professional. Data were collected from public health files, medical records and two standardised phone questionnaires: the Short Form-36 and the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. In all, 92 persons participated in the study (25 had West Nile fever (WNF), 18 had meningitis and 49 had encephalitis). Encephalitis participants were older, had more underlying medical conditions, more neurological symptoms, worse hospital course and higher lethality than meningitis or WNF participants. Nearly half of the surviving hospitalised encephalitis patients required extra support upon discharge. At 24-month follow-up, encephalitis and meningitis patients had a lower score in two domains of the mental component: mental health and social functioning (P = 0.0025 and 0.0297, respectively) compared with the norms based on age- and sex-matched Canadians. Physical status was not affected by West Nile virus (WNV) infection. In addition, 5/36 (15%) of encephalitis, 1/17 (6%) of meningitis and 1/23 (5%) of WNF participants had new functional limitations 24 months after symptom onset. In summary, mental and functional sequelae in encephalitis patients are likely to represent a source of long-term morbidity. Preventive measures should target patients at higher risk of severe illness after WNV infection.

Periodic outbreaks of West Nile virus (WNV), Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and to a lesser extent, California serogroup viruses (CSGV), have been reported in parts of Canada in the last decade. This study was designed to provide a broad assessment of arboviral activity in Quebec, Canada, by conducting serological surveys for these arboviruses in 196 horses, 1442 dogs and 485 humans. Sera were screened by a competitive enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and positive samples confirmed by plaque reduction neutralisation tests. The percentage of seropositive samples was 83·7%, 16·5%, 7·1% in horses, 18·8%, 0·6%, 0% in humans, 11·7%, 3·1%, 0% in adult dogs and 2·9%, 0·3%, 0% in juvenile dogs for CSGV, WNV and EEEV, respectively. Serological results in horses and dogs appeared to provide a meaningful assessment of risk to public health posed by multiple arboviruses.

The identification of specific environments sustaining emerging arbovirus amplification and transmission to humans is a key component of public health intervention planning. This study aimed at identifying environmental factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) infections in southern Quebec, Canada, by modelling and jointly interpreting aggregated clinical data in humans and serological data in pet dogs. Environmental risk factors were estimated in humans by negative binomial regression based on a dataset of 191 human WNV clinical cases reported in the study area between 2011 and 2014. Risk factors for infection in dogs were evaluated by logistic and negative binomial models based on a dataset including WNV serological results from 1442 dogs sampled from the same geographical area in 2013. Forested lands were identified as low-risk environments in humans. Agricultural lands represented higher risk environments for dogs. Environments identified as impacting risk in the current study were somewhat different from those identified in other studies conducted in north-eastern USA, which reported higher risk in suburban environments. In the context of the current study, combining human and animal data allowed a more comprehensive and possibly a more accurate view of environmental WNV risk factors to be obtained than by studying aggregated human data alone.

It has previously been suggested that southern Tunisian oases may be suitable areas for the circulation of flaviviruses. In order to anticipate and prevent possible epidemiological spread of flaviviruses in humans and domestic animals, the ecology of their transmission in the oasis system needs to be better understood. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the seroprevalence of anti-flavivirus antibodies in the laughing dove (Spilopelia senegalensis), an abundant resident bird in Tunisian oases. Anti-flavivirus antibodies were detected in 17% of sampled doves. Ten per cent of the total tested doves were West Nile virus (WNV) seropositive and 4% were Usutu virus (USUV) seropositive, which provides the first evidence of USUV circulation in Tunisian birds. We also found that the occurrence probability of anti-flavivirus antibodies in dove plasma increased with decreasing distance to coast, suggesting that doves inhabiting coastal oases were more exposed to flaviviruses compared with those inhabiting inland oases. We also found significantly higher antibody occurrence probability in adult doves compared with young doves, which underlines the effect of exposure time. Overall, our results suggest that the laughing dove may be used for WNV and USUV surveillance in southern Tunisia. They also stress the need for investigations combining data on birds and mosquitoes to better understand the ecological factors governing the circulation of flaviviruses in this area.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing public health concern in Europe and there is a need to develop more efficient early detection systems. Nervous signs in horses are considered to be an early indicator of WNV and, using them in a syndromic surveillance system, might be relevant. In our study, we assessed whether or not data collected by the passive French surveillance system for the surveillance of equine diseases can be used routinely for the detection of WNV. We tested several pre-processing methods and detection algorithms based on regression. We evaluated system performances using simulated and authentic data and compared them to those of the surveillance system currently in place. Our results show that the current detection algorithm provided similar performances to those tested using simulated and real data. However, regression models can be easily and better adapted to surveillance objectives. The detection performances obtained were compatible with the early detection of WNV outbreaks in France (i.e. sensitivity 98%, specificity >94%, timeliness 2·5 weeks and around four false alarms per year) but further work is needed to determine the most suitable alarm threshold for WNV surveillance in France using cost-efficiency analysis.

Accurate data on the incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) disease are important for directing public health education and control activities. The objective of this project was to assess the underdiagnosis of WNV neuroinvasive disease through laboratory testing of patients with suspected viral meningitis or encephalitis at selected hospitals serving WNV-endemic regions in three states. Of the 279 patients with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens tested for WNV immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies, 258 (92%) were negative, 19 (7%) were positive, and two (1%) had equivocal results. Overall, 63% (12/19) of patients with WNV IgM-positive CSF had WNV IgM testing ordered by their attending physician. Seven (37%) cases would not have been identified as probable WNV infections without the further testing conducted through this project. These findings indicate that over a third of WNV infections in patients with clinically compatible neurological illness might be undiagnosed due to either lack of testing or inappropriate testing, leading to substantial underestimates of WNV neuroinvasive disease burden. Efforts should be made to educate healthcare providers and laboratorians about the local epidemiology of arboviral diseases and the optimal tests to be used in different clinical situations.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne neurotropic viral pathogen maintained in an enzootic cycle between mosquitoes (vectors) and birds (natural hosts) with equids, humans, and other vertebrates acting as dead-end hosts. WNV activity in Mexico has been reported in several domestic and wild fauna and in humans, and the virus has been isolated from birds, mosquitoes, and humans. However, no serological studies have been conducted in monkeys, and only two in a limited number of crocodiles (Crocodylus moreletii). Here we present data on the prevalence of neutralizing antibodies against WNV in 53 healthy wild monkeys (49 Ateles geoffroyi and four Alouatta pigra), and 80 semi-captive healthy crocodiles (60 C. acutus and 20 C. acutus–C. moreletti hybrids) sampled during 2012. None of the monkey sera neutralized WNV, whereas 55% of the crocodile sera presented neutralizing antibodies against WNV. These results can contribute to the design of surveillance programmes in Mexico.

A serosurvey of 349 military working horses and 231 military working dogs was conducted in ten sites in Morocco in 2012. This survey revealed a high level of exposure of these animals to flaviviruses: seroprevalence rates of 60% in horses and of 62% in dogs were observed using a competitive West Nile virus (WNV) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). Seroneutralization test results showed that the majority of cELISA-positive results were due to exposure to WNV. Further assays conducted in vaccinated horses with a DIVA (Differentiating Infected from Vaccinated Animals) test indicated that anti-WNV antibodies had been stimulated through WNV natural infection. Moreover, in both species, seroneutralization tests suggested an exposure to Usutu virus (USUV). Data analysis did not show any significant difference of cELISA seropositivity risk between horses and dogs. Dogs may thus represent an interesting alternative to equines for the serological surveillance of WNV or USUV circulation, especially in areas where equine vaccination precludes passive surveillance (based on the detection of West Nile fever cases) in horses.

The 2012 West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic was the largest since 2003 and the North Texas region was the most heavily impacted. We conducted a serosurvey of blood donors from four counties in the Dallas–Fort Worth area to characterize the epidemic. Blood donor specimens collected in November 2012 were tested for WNV-specific antibodies. Donors positive for WNV-specific IgG, IgM, and neutralizing antibodies were considered to have been infected in 2012. This number was adjusted using a multi-step process that accounted for timing of IgM seroreversion determined from previous longitudinal studies of WNV-infected donors. Of 4971 donations screened, 139 (2·8%) were confirmed WNV IgG positive, and 69 (1·4%) had IgM indicating infection in 2012. After adjusting for timing of sampling and potential seroreversion, we estimated that 1·8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·5–2·2] of the adult population in the Dallas–Fort Worth area were infected during 2012. The resulting overall estimate for the ratio of infections to reported WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases was 238:1 (95% CI 192–290), with significantly increased risk of WNND in older age groups. These findings were very similar to previous estimates of infections per WNND case, indicating no change in virulence as WNV evolved into an endemic infection in the United States.

West Nile virus (WNV) circulation dynamics in the context of the urban environment is not yet elucidated. In this perspective, three groups of eight rock pigeons (Columbia livia) were inoculated with three WNV lineage 1 strains isolated in Italy between 2009 and 2012. The pigeons did not develop any clinical signs consistent with WNV acute infection. All animals seroconverted and shed virus up to 15 days post-infection by the oral or cloacal routes. In all infected groups viraemia lasted for 4 days post-infection. No WNV-specific gross or histological lesions were found in infected birds compared to control birds and immunohistochemistry remained constantly negative from all tissues. The reservoir competence index was also assessed and it ranged between 0·11 and 0·14. This study demonstrates that pigeons are competent reservoir hosts for Italian WNV lineage 1 circulating strains thus potentially posing a risk to the public health system.

Birds play a central role in the epidemiology of several flaviviruses of concern for public and veterinary health. Seabirds represent the most abundant and widespread avifauna in the western Indian Ocean and may play an important role as host reservoirs and spreaders of arthropod-borne pathogens such as flaviviruses. We report the results of a serological investigation based on blood samples collected from nine seabird species from seven islands in the Indian Ocean. Using a commercial competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay directed against the prototypic West Nile flavivirus, antibodies against flaviviruses were detected in the serum of 47 of the 855 seabirds tested. They were detected in bird samples from three islands and from four bird species. Seroneutralization tests on adults and chicks suggested that great frigatebirds (Fregata minor) from Europa were infected by West Nile virus during their non-breeding period, and that Usutu virus probably circulated within bird colonies on Tromelin and on Juan de Nova. Real-time polymerase chain reactions performed on bird blood samples did not yield positive results precluding the genetic characterization of flavivirus using RNA sequencing. Our findings stress the need to further investigate flavivirus infections in arthropod vectors present in seabird colonies.

During the last few years, several cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans have been reported in Tunisia. However, detailed information on WNV infection in wild birds, the primary amplifying host of WNV, are lacking. In this work, we investigated the exposure of wild sparrows (hybrid Passer domesticus × hispaniolensis) living in two oases in southern Tunisia (Gabès and Kébili oases) to WNV, through the detection of WNV-specific antibodies by using ELISA and microneutralization tests. In total, 208 birds were sampled (54 from Kébili, 154 from Gabès). Anti-WNV antibodies were detected in two birds, corresponding to an overall seroprevalence of 1%. There was no significant difference between the two sampled populations [1·85% (1/54) in Kébili, 0·65% (1/154) in Gabès]. These data provide indirect evidence of the exposure of resident sparrows in southern Tunisia to WNV.

This study describes the first large-scale serosurvey on West Nile virus (WNV) conducted in the equine population in Pakistan. Sera were collected from 449 equids from two provinces of Pakistan during 2012–2013. Equine serum samples were screened using a commercial ELISA kit detecting antibodies against WNV and related flaviviruses. ELISA-positive samples were further investigated using virus-specific microneutralization tests (MNTs) to identify infections with Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), WNV and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV). Anti-WNV antibodies were detected in 292 samples by ELISA (seroprevalence 65·0%) and WNV infections were confirmed in 249 animals by MNT. However, there was no animal found infected by JEV or TBEV. The detection of WNV-seropositive equines in Pakistan strongly suggests a widespread circulation of WNV in Pakistan.

The epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV) in Israel is different from other neighbouring countries in the Middle East where disease burden has been minimal. We analysed a cohort of Ashkenazi Jewish patients with symptomatic WNV infection (n = 39), and WNV-negative controls (n = 61), for nine genetic variants that has been suggested to be associated with susceptibility to WNV. Two single nucleotide polymorphisms were significantly more frequent in WNV-infected than non-infected individuals, rs7280422 (MX1) [odds ratio (OR) 4·05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·04–8·03, P < 0·001] and rs3213545 (OASL) (OR 1·85, 95% CI 1·03–3·3, P = 0·03). Genetic polymorphism may play a significant role in susceptibility to WNV infection in Ashkenazi Jews