The goal of this paper is to systematically review the literature on United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast evaluation and critically assess their methods and findings. The fundamental characteristics of optimal forecasts are bias, accuracy and efficiency as well as encompassing and informativeness. This review revealed that the findings of these studies can be very different based on the forecasts examined, commodity, sample period, and methodology. Some forecasts performed very well, while others were not very reliable, resulting in forecast specific optimality record. We discuss methodological and empirical contributions of these studies as well as their shortcomings and potential opportunities for future work.

For the World Health Organization (WHO), the 1978 Alma-Ata Declaration marked a move away from the disease-specific and technologically-focused programmes of the 1950s and 1960s towards a reimagined strategy to provide ‘Health for All by the Year 2000’. This new approach was centred on primary health care, a vision based on acceptable methods and appropriate technologies, devised in collaboration with communities and dependent on their full participation. Since 1948, the WHO had used mass communications strategies to publicise its initiatives and shape public attitudes, and the policy shift in the 1970s required a new visual strategy. In this context, community health workers (CHWs) played a central role as key visual identifiers of Health for All. This article examines a period of picturing and public information work on the part of the WHO regarding CHWs. It sets out to understand how the visual politics of the WHO changed to accommodate PHC as a new priority programme from the 1970s onwards. The argument tracks attempts to define CHWs and examines the techniques employed by the WHO during the 1970s and early 1980s to promote the concept to different audiences around the world. It then moves to explore how the process was evaluated, as well as the difficulties in procuring fresh imagery. Finally, the article traces these representations through the 1980s, when community approaches came under sustained pressure from external and internal factors and imagery took on the supplementary role of defending the concept.

With the advent of new media technologies and approaches in the twentieth century, public health officials became convinced that health needed mass media support. The World Health Organization believed that educating people, as well as informing them about the health situation around the world, could assist in the enduring fight against disease. Yet in an increasingly competitive media landscape, the agency recognized the need to persuade people and hold their attention through attractive presentation. Public information, the name given to the multiple strategies used to communicate with the public, was rarely straightforward and required the agency not only to monitor the impact of its own efforts but also to identify opportunities to further enhance its reputation, especially when this was in danger of damage or misappropriation. The WHO’s understanding of public information provides insights into the development of international information, communication, and education networks and practices after 1945, as well as the increasingly central position of these processes in generating support for and evincing the value of international organizations.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases crop condition reports detailing crop progress and growing conditions for various crops including corn, soybeans, and winter wheat. Previous research has investigated market impacts from various USDA reports, but crop condition reports have received little attention. This article investigates the impact of crop condition reports on winter wheat prices at the national level and for a local market. We employ both parametric and nonparametric tests. Results suggest that crop condition reports for winter wheat do not generally affect market prices. This contrasts with results found in corn and soybean markets.

This article is written by Paul Magrath who is the Head of Product Development and Online Content at the Incorporated Council of Law Reporting for England and Wales (ICLR). His article explores the issues surrounding the custodianship of those public legal documents, such as court judgments, which form primary sources of law but which may also contain private data, and looks at the way custodians of such data can also act as gatekeepers, enhancing or inhibiting access by the public as well as more specialised users. It expands upon an article published by Infolaw.co.uk entitled “Custodians and gatekeepers: maintaining access to public legal information”, and refers to recent case law involving the tension between information in the public domain and the individual's privacy and “right to be forgotten” by search engines. The article also looks at how court documents are made accessible in other jurisdictions and imagines how things might be improved in our own courts, before concluding that the model of a not-for-profit organisation, such as the ICLR or BAILII (the British and Irish Legal Information Institute), may work as well if not better than public or private management of judgments and other legal public information.

Modification of behaviour in response to changes in the environment or ambientconditions, based on memory, is typical of the human and, possibly, many animalspecies.One obvious example of such adaptivity is, for instance, switching to a saferbehaviour when in danger, from either a predator or an infectious disease. In humansociety such switching to safe behaviour is particularly apparent during epidemics.Mathematically, such changes of behaviour in response to changes in the ambient conditionscan be described by models involving switching. In most cases, this switching is assumedto depend on the system state, and thus it disregards the history and, therefore, memory.Memory can be introduced into a mathematical model using a phenomenon known as hysteresis.We illustrate this idea using a simple SIR compartmental model that is applicable inepidemiology. Our goal is to show why and how hysteresis can arise in such a model, andhow it may be applied to describe a variety of memory effects. Our other objective is tointroduce a unified paradigm for mathematical modelling with memory effects inepidemiology and ecology. Our approach treats changing behaviour as an irreversible flowrelated to large ensembles of elementary exchange operations that recently has beensuccessfully applied in a number of other areas, such as terrestrial hydrology, andmacroeconomics. For the purposes of illustrating these ideas in an application to biology,we consider a rather simple case study and develop a model from first principles. Weaccompany the model with extensive numerical simulations which exhibit interestingqualitative effects.

This Panel Session consisted of three country reports (Bagladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar) and the common issues identified during the Panel discussions relative to water-related hazards and events in the Southeast Asia Region. The primary event discussed regardless of the hazards encountered was flooding. The merits of the responses generated in Bangladesh before, during, and following the 2004 floods provide evidence of what can be accomplished in community and national levels of preparedness.

Many key issues arose in the discussions: (1) command and control systems and SOPs; (2) ready resources; (3) public information and education and human resource development; (4) community-level preparedness; (5) accessibility to health care; (6) increased focus on disease prevention and control; (7) management of dead bodies; (8) need for a legal framework; (9) funding and the management of funds; and (10) relationships with themedia.

Dans son rapport remis aux ministres en 1999, le GRNC a indiqué la nécessité de mener des compléments d'études afin de combler certaines lacunes dans la connaissance de paramètres radiologiques. Le GRNC a également recommandé de prendre en compte des aspects autres que radiologiques. Suite à ces recommandations, les ministres de la Santé et de l'Environnement ont confié au GRNC une deuxième mission portant sur l'étude des incertitudes associées aux résultats de la première mission, et la prise en compte des rejets chimiques. De plus, à la faveur de diverses études publiées récemment par l'IRSN, des informations sur des concentrations de radionucléides peu étudiés jusqu'alors ont été obtenues et des paramètres ont été précisés. Des informations totalement nouvelles ont été acquises comme celles sur le chlore-36. Dans le présent texte les apports scientifiques obtenus depuis la publication du rapport GRNC sont résumés.

Il faut d'abord constater la grande divergence d'appréciation entre les spécialistes et le public sur l'état de la gestion des déchets radioactifs. L'absence de compréhension commune sur ce qui constitue le risque associé aux déchets rend la négociation du risque au sein de la société difficile. Pour avancer vers des solutions qui respectent le très long terme les États concernés ont mis en place des processus, qui ont certains traits en commun. La gestion par étapes – qui va de pair avec la réversibilité – permet d'articuler les différents niveaux et les différentes politiques, tout en donnant le temps à l'observation et à l'apprentissage. La clarté du rôle des différents acteurs, comme leur comportement sont les clés de la consolidation de la confiance. La dimension locale du processus est essentielle, et plus particulièrement en France, qui est pour l'instant le seul pays du monde à étudier des stockages en dehors des zones déjà familières du nucléaire. Trois garanties doivent être apportées : celle de la compréhension de la sûreté des installations ; celle de l'équité dans le choix des sites, avec des opportunités de développement apportées par les projets ; enfin celle du débat local ouvert. À ces conditions, on peut espérer définir des voies pour la gestion à long terme des déchets radioactifs, dans une logique de développement durable.

Mr. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen, first let me thank you for coming to this meeting that has been organized by us in close collaboration with UYDP, OCHA, UNIGEF and IDNOR with generous support from the Canadian, UK, and USA development agencies. It always is a pleasure to recognize our partners.

We have with us here today representatives of a large number of agencies, institutions, NGOs, and private individuals. This cross section of interests is a manifestation of a growing and irreversible trend. The important issues of our time cannot be dealt with solely by nations, agencies, or individuals, even the most powerful ones. The phenomenon of globalization no longer is restricted to economic or financial matters: it is now evoking the wide participation of ranges and numbers of actors that would have been unthinkable a few decades ago. In almost all aspects of our work, we are looking to find the partners and interests that can bring value to the management of the issue or the search for solutions, if definitive solutions ever can be found to the really important human challenges.