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1 results

  • 2 - The Story of Polling in 21/2 Fiascos

  • from Part I - Polling in Context
  • Michael A. Bailey, Georgetown University, Washington DC
  • Book:
    Polling at a Crossroads
    Published online:
    29 February 2024
    Print publication:
    07 March 2024, pp 23-46

  • Summary

    This chapter uses history of polling to explain how pollsters have dealt with challenges of nonresponse. It tells the tale of three polling paradigms: large-scale polling, quota sampling, and random sampling. The first two paradigms came crashing down after pollsters made poor predictions for presidential elections. The third paradigm remains vibrant intellectually, but is increasingly difficult to implement. We do not yet know if the bad polling predictions in 2016 and 2020 will push the field to a new paradigm, but certainly they raised doubts about the current state of the field.