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1 results

  • On the asymptotic distribution of the size of a stochastic epidemic

  • Thomas Sellke
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 20 / Issue 2 / June 1983
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 390-394
    Print publication:
    June 1983

  • For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey [1] and Kendall [3], Daniels [2] showed that ‘when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels's assumption that the original number of infectives is ‘small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description.