Since 2006, Rwanda has experienced a substantial rise in the facility-based delivery (FBD) rate, attributed to various health initiatives. This paper investigates the impact of multiple health reforms on maternal service utilization and neonatal mortality rates. Employing a difference-in-differences framework utilizing geographical variation in the baseline FBD rate, our estimates indicate a 10–17 percentage point increase in FBD and a 0.15–0.18 times increase in the number of antenatal care visits. While our analysis indicates some evidence of a reduction in neonatal mortality rates, the findings are inconclusive. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the effect of the reforms on neonatal mortality rates was weakly intensified for those residing near district hospitals providing care for complicated pregnancies.

Fertility control strategies became widespread in rural Spain through the twentieth century: a significant number of parents decided to reduce their marital fertility once the advantages of control strategies became widely known. This paper explores the impact of those practices on children through a comparative study of the heights and occupations of grandparents, parents, and children. We analyze more than 1,200 individuals from three different generations born between 1835 and 1959 in 14 rural Spanish villages, studying whether the advantages associated with fertility control were maintained over time favoring a better family status or whether they were diluted in the next generation. The largest increases in height were among children whose parents controlled their fertility by stopping having children before the mother's 36th birthday. However, it does not seem that this increase in biological well-being was accompanied by major episodes of upward social mobility.

Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential.

India has not only maintained its top position among countries with the largest number of underweight adults but has also jumped to a higher position among countries with largest increase in the proportion of overweight people in the last three decades. More studies focus on double burden of malnutrition among women than on men. This study uses the quantile regression model to analyse the covariates associated with low and high body mass index (BMI) primarily among men aged 20–54 years during 2015–2016 in India. Occupations that involve more manual work help in maintaining a normal BMI along with better education, dietary diversity, and less sedentary lifestyle. A gendered comparison of men and their spouses highlights the differences in the association of covariates with BMI for men and women. The results from this study will provide insights for behavioural change at an individual level and inputs for public health intervention for addressing ill health concerns arising from underweight, overweight, or obesity.

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that exposure to the restrictive fertility policies of the Chinese “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in the 1970s contributes to the dynamics and patterns of elderly suicides in China in the period 2004–2017. We apply an identification strategy that exploits variation in exposure to this policy across birth cohorts that is based on the different timing of the implementation of the fertility policies across Chinese provinces. The results show that cohorts with a greater exposure to the restrictive fertility policy in the 1970s exhibit higher suicide rates during old ages.

Although the issue of redistribution is glossed over by Marglin, there are three reasons why decarbonisation must be accompanied by a massive scaling up of redistribution from the global North to South if the agenda is to be founded on a social justice approach. First, constructing a capital infrastructure in the South in a manner that maximises the potential for decarbonisation would tend to be very import-intensive. Hence, it would require external financing or else risk running aground through balance of payment constraints. Second, there is already a tendency in the global economy of siphoning resources from South to North, in particular through the increasing control over flows of value and wealth by Northern corporations from their commanding positions within international networks. Southern productivity needs to be contextualised from this perspective given the risk that climate negotiations lock in the subordination of Southern countries within these global networks, rather than seeking ways for Southern producers to leverage more value for the output and carbon emissions they are already producing. Third, population and labour transitions in the South place relatively greater pressure than in the past on employment generation in tertiary (service) sectors, in which distributive and redistributive processes play essential roles in bolstering labour demand. The neglect of global redistribution could undermine the capacity of Southern countries to face these broader development challenges, which are already immense even in the absence of decarbonisation. A key question is how to organise global redistributive transfers in a manner that does not continue to subordinate Southern populations to Northern interests. The challenge for decarbonisation is the forging of a political will for redistribution that is motivated by climate change rather than geopolitics, and that respects national ownership and self-determination.

Tolerance of sexual minorities is presumed to matter, but its effects are under-studied. Because tolerance can affect both experiences at work and division of labor in the household, we study the relationship between tolerance and the time cohabiting gay men and lesbian women spend in paid work across the United States. In the average state, the increase in tolerance between 2003 and 2015 is associated with an increase in paid work of about 1 week per year among cohabiting gay men. Though not robustly statistically significant, the increase in tolerance is associated with a decrease in paid work among cohabiting lesbian women relative to heterosexual women.

Three broad categories of transformative changes have been recommended in The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review (henceforth Review): (i) The need to address the imbalance between our demands on Nature and its supply. (ii) The need to change our measures of economic success. (iii) The need for institutional change. However, what the private citizen would like to find in the Review differs from what someone in a government department or an international agency or a private company seeks. These notes have been prompted by the many virtual meetings I have had since the Review’s launch and they further explore aspects of the Review’s recommendations.

The twentieth century has seen a phenomenal decline in mortality and an increase in productivity level. These two important events likely affect people's choices of schooling years and retirement age. We first show that in a standard life-cycle model, positive feedback exists between optimal schooling years and retirement age choices. We then evaluate the impact of a mortality or productivity shock on an endogenous variable (schooling years or retirement age) by decomposing it into the direct and indirect effects, where the indirect effect arises from feedback from the other endogenous variable. Finally, we extend the model by including the utility benefit of schooling and show that a negative correlation of schooling years and retirement age is possible. Apart from clarifying the apparently similar concepts of positive co-movement and positive feedback, our results have implications relevant to the economic demography literature.

This paper explores the extent to which child labor perpetuates the cycle of household poverty, as well as food insecurity using the sixth round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey. The study employs a counterfactual framework and an endogenous treatment effect econometric technique to accurately examine the causal link between child labor and long-term household poverty and food security. Results suggest a positive relationship between early paid work and long-term poverty and food insecurity. This finding provides empirical evidence to indicate that child labor has the potential to create and perpetuate poverty traps. From a policy perspective, findings from this study also contribute to the modern policy debates surrounding the achievement of the sustainable development goals on reducing poverty and hunger in developing countries.

We derive optimal portfolio choice patterns in retirement (ages 66–105) for a constant relative risk aversion utility maximising investor facing risky capital market returns, stochastic mortality risk, and income-reducing health shocks. Beyond the usual stocks and bonds, the individual can invest his assets in tontines. Tontines are cost-efficient financial contracts providing age-increasing, but volatile cash flows, generated through the pooling of mortality without guarantees, which can help to match increasing financing needs at old ages. We find that a tontine invested in the risk-free asset dominates stock investments for older investors without a bequest motive. However, with a bequest motive, it is optimal to replace the tontine investment over time with traditional financial assets. Our results indicate that early in retirement, a tontine is only an attractive investment option, if the tontine funds are invested in a risky asset. In this case, they crowd out stocks and risk-free bonds in the optimal portfolios of younger investors. Over time, the average optimal portfolio weight of tontines decreases. Introducing systematic mortality risks noticeably reduces the peak allocation to tontines.

The current study assesses the role of the pay-as-you-go system as an intergenerational redistributive mechanism while immigration control is considered. A theoretical model of a small open economy populated with overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents is used to show that skill-favouring immigration policies are, under rather permissive conditions, welfare depriving for the overall population. However, the policy-setting generation is shown to benefit from immigration control, thus decreasing the welfare for the future population.

In the coming decades, the countries of the South will be facing the aging of the population faster than the countries of the North. This will have long-term economic consequences for the South but also for the North through the changing of international capital flows. To study the latter, we build a simple two-region two-period overlapping generations (OLG) model, assuming fully integrated financial markets. This allows us to determine the analytical expression of the world interest rate dynamics at general equilibrium and the resulting capital flows accruing to each of the two regions (the North and the South). From there, we analyze how a reduction in either fertility or mortality alters the magnitude of the international capital flows. Contradictory effects are evidenced. To clear-up any ambiguity and to study the South's demographic transition, which involves a succession of shocks, we propose numerical simulations. Even if the results stress that the institutional context and technological catching-up may matter, they suggest in a rather general way that the declines in both fertility and mortality tend to reduce the relative capital needs of the Southern economies and consequently their capital inflows. This, in turn, would be beneficial to the North's productive capacity, which should then hold more capital.

Developing countries often lack an adequate social security system, and elderly parents rely heavily on their children for support. Aging populations and low-fertility rates are an emerging trend in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the effects of sibship size on individuals' internal migration decisions in China. We find that the number of siblings has a positive effect on individual migration decisions, but this effect is non-linear and marginally increasing. Second, we find that having brothers has a more significant effect on migration decisions than having sisters. Finally, although of different magnitudes, the effects are persistent across genders, Hukou status, and education levels.

We analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of a simple model of macroeconomic geography in which demography and pollution dynamics mutually affect each other. Pollution, by reducing the carrying capacity of the natural environment – which determines the maximum amount of people a given location can effectively bear – crucially affects labor force dynamics which in turn alter the amount of resources available for abatement activities aiming to reduce pollution. Such mutual links determine the eventual sustainability of the development process in different locations and economies, and spatial interactions further complicate the picture. We show that neglecting the existence of mutual feedback between population and pollution leads to misleading conclusions about the eventual sustainability of a specific location. We also show that even neglecting the existence of spatial externalities can lead to misleading conclusions about the sustainability of different regions in the spatial economy. This suggests thus that both the nature of the population and pollution relationship and geographical factors may play a critical role in the process of sustainable development.

The process of structural transformation from the farm to a nonfarm sector is accompanied by technological change in both sectors and massive population growth. We investigate the effects of increasing population size (the population effect) and sector-specific productivity (the push and pull effects), both factor-neutral and factor-biased, in a parsimonious general equilibrium model under general forms of utility and production functions. All three effects may co-exist and interact in important ways. Generalizing the agricultural sector production function to CES is crucial for the population growth effect. Our analysis highlights how the relative importance of the three effects changes as the country develops and production and consumption conditions become more flexible.

In times of decreasing mortality, one way to stabilise a PAYG pension system is to interrelate the retirement age to the anticipated average lifespan. This paper investigates two approaches for Germany: one is to keep the average retirement duration constant, the other to define a constant share of the total lifespan for the retirement period. Our simulation model uses a Leslie matrix population projection, a Solow-Swan growth model and a detailed calculation of the German pension insurance budget. Our results show quite a significant impact on the insurance level and a rather small effect on the contribution rate, which is characteristic of a Bismarckian system.

Life expectancy at birth has more than doubled in Europe since the early 19th century. This demographic trend constitutes a major victory against scarcity, but raises also deep challenges to the Welfare State, concerning the sustainability and the equity of the social protection system. This paper surveys recent developments in the economic analysis of longevity, both at the positive and the normative levels. Taking mortality risks into account is shown to affect the study of the life cycle model significantly, in particular concerning the strength of life horizon effects. It raises also, at the level of normative foundations for policy-making, a dilemma between ex ante and ex post valuations. Finally, we explore the design of policy reforms under varying longevity, in fields including preventive and curative policies, education, pension, and wealth taxation.

Recent papers have suggested that the Industrial Revolution in Europe ultimately derives from the labor scarce economy of northwest Europe, which some trace back to the Black Death [Voigtländer and Voth (2013a) and Allen (2011)]. This paper examines the effects of the Black Death in England. Specifically, did it merely change relative factor prices, or did it lead to lasting gains in the efficiency of the economy after 1348? Extensive wage and price data from England 1210–1800 suggest that the population losses of the Black Death were associated with a surprising increase in economic efficiency, despite the decline in the scale of the economy. But this efficiency gain disappeared when population rose again in the 16th century. There is no sign of a connection between a labor scarce economy, and a switch to faster long run economic growth through technological advance.

The data show that an increase in government provided old-age pensions is strongly correlated with a reduction in fertility. What type of model is consistent with this finding? We explore this question using two models of fertility, the one by Barro and Becker (1989), and the one inspired by Caldwell and developed by Boldrin and Jones (2002). In the Barro and Becker model parents have children because they perceive their children’s lives as a continuation of their own. In the Boldrin and Jones’ framework parents procreate because the children care about their old parents’ utility, and thus provide them with old age transfers. The effect of increases in government provided pensions on fertility in the Barro and Becker model is very small, and inconsistent with the empirical findings. The effect on fertility in the Boldrin and Jones model is sizeable and accounts for between 55 and 65% of the observed Europe–US fertility differences both across countries and across time and over 80% of the observed variation seen in a broad cross section of countries. Another key factor affecting fertility the Boldrin and Jones model is the access to capital markets, which can account for the other half of the observed change in fertility in developed countries over the last 70 years.