Trophic competition among top predators is also influenced by environmental variability. However, the magnitude of the changes in contrasting events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is poorly studied. The stomach contents of striped marlin (Kajikia audax), blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), and dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) were analysed. We included the ENSO effect on the diet because we analysed organisms captured during 2010–2011 and 2014–2015, periods that, according to the Ocean Niño Index, were defined as the cold phase (CP) and warm phase (WP), respectively. Trophic diversity, feeding habits and strategy, trophic position (TP), trophic niche amplitude, and diet overlap were calculated. It was found that, despite a wide trophic spectrum, all three species were specialist predators in both phases. The most important prey species during both phases for striped marlin was Dosidicus gigas, while Auxis spp. was the most important prey of blue marlin. Dolphinfish fed mainly on Oxyporhamphus micropterus during the CP and Pleuroncodes planipes during the WP. Our results indicated that during both ENSO phases, all species maintained a trophic position similar to previous reports for the study area. However, for striped marlin, these differences were significant. Greater trophic competition was found during the CP (seven prey taxa shared) than in the WP (three prey taxa shared). These species often share the same environment, but their preference for feeding on different prey makes them occupy different trophic spaces, an aspect that allows their coexistence in time and space.

The Galapagos Islands lie within the oceanic ecoregion of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, which has a unique fish assemblage composition due to the influence of several ocean currents and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. In the El Niño phase of these events, water temperature changes facilitate the movement of fish species between oceanic ecoregions, as well as across the Eastern Pacific Barrier. Here, we present five new fish records for the Galapagos Marine Reserve based on underwater imagery. These include two rays (Mobula thurstoni and Myliobatis longirostris) and three bony fishes (Lobotes pacifica, Lutjanus colorado and Sphyraena stellata). Of these, the first species is proposed as potentially resident to the Galapagos, and the latter four as vagrant species in the Galapagos until further sightings can conclusively determine their status. The effects of ENSO, the use of underwater video technology, and the importance of up-to-date and accurate species listings to understand the impact of the climate crisis are discussed.

The physical and socioeconomic environments in which we live are intrinsically linked over a wide range of time and space scales. On monthly intervals, the price of many commodities produced predominantly in tropical regions covary with the dominant mode of climate variability in this region, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, for the spot prices returns of vegetable oils produced in Asia, we develop autoregressive (AR) models with exogenous ENSO indices, where for the first time these indices are generated by a purpose-built state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM) climate forecasting system. The GCM is a numerical simulation which couples together the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice, with the initial conditions tailored to maximize the climate forecast skill at multiyear timescales in the tropics. To serve as additional benchmarks, we also test commodity forecasts using: (a) no ENSO information as a lower bound; (b) perfect future ENSO knowledge as a reference upper bound; and (c) an econometric AR model of ENSO. All models adopting ENSO factors outperform those that do not, indicating the value here of incorporating climate knowledge into investment decision-making. Commodity forecasts adopting perfect ENSO factors have statistically significant skill out to 2 years. When adopting the GCM-ENSO factors, there is predictive power of the commodity beyond 1 year in the best case, which consistently outperforms commodity forecasts adopting an AR econometric model of ENSO.

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929–1931 compared with 1913–1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942–1946) to 26.4% (1947–1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009–2018) when compared with 1957–1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.

The South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens, has been considered vulnerable and under the threat of extinction in Peru due to the drastic demographic changes as a result of the impact of low food availability and the unusual timing of the severe El Niño event of 1997–1998. We present the first estimate of effective population size (Ne) for the species that takes into account the effects of mating system and variation in population size in different generations caused by the severe El Niño event of 1997–1998. The resulting Ne was 7715 specimens. We believe that the estimated Ne for the Peruvian population is not a critical value, because it is higher than the mean minimum viable population generally accepted for vertebrates (ca. 5000 breeding adults). However, the viability of O. flavescens on the Peruvian coast may depend primarily on local availability of food resources. Climatic change models predict stronger and more frequent El Niño events. In this sense, the Ne of 7715 should be considered as a value to be maintained in order to keep the population large enough to avoid inbreeding or to retain adaptive genetic variation to survive to future El Niño events. Moreover, this Ne estimate is important data in discussions about resuming culling activities, based on the statement of an increasing competition between fishery activity and sea lions during El Niño events. Thus, this Ne should be taken into account in future management plans to ensure the conservation of the species on the Peruvian coast.

Daily striae on the shell of the scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, were used to investigate its growth in a protected population within La Rinconada Bay, near Antofagasta (2nd Region, Northern Chile), and to determine how environmental forcings control shell growth. This sclerochronological approach was useful to describe daily shell growth a posteriori. Mean shell growth rates were calculated daily between February and October 1999 from shells of six specimens harvested on 15 October 1999. A multiple regression analysis performed on shell growth and environmental data shows that a temperature increase stimulates shell growth whereas particulate organic carbon concentration might be stressful above 2.5 mg L−1. The lunar cycle might also have an effect on growth, most potent around New Moons, by synchronizing an endogenous oscillator. The age at commercial size (90 mm) was only 10–11 months in La Rinconada Marine Reserve and the von Bertalanffy growth parameters were K = 2.24 y−1 and H ∞ = 117 mm. Differences in shell growth performances between this study and previous ones dealing with A. purpuratus growth may be explained by the different methods used for shell growth modelling, higher growth rate on the seabed compared to suspended cultures, and particular environmental forcings (e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation-ENSO events). Growth performance seems better during La Niña than during El Niño events, probably because of the large temperature increase (above the highest temperatures recorded in “normal” conditions) and the decline in coastal upwelling (which affects food availability) during El Niño. La Rinconada Marine Reserve appears as a very favourable site for A. purpuratus growth, probably because of the active upwelling zone off Antofagasta. These new insights on A. purpuratus shell growth confirm the importance of La Rinconada Marine Reserve as an area supporting repopulation of endangered wild stocks and scallop aquaculture in Chile.

A severe outbreak of Lepidoptera followed the 1997–98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event, during which the climate in central Panama was unusually dry. The outbreak involved the larvae of at least 12 species of Lepidoptera and occurred at a seasonally dry, deciduous forest site, where extensive background data were available regarding climate, tree species and non-outbreak herbivory levels. Most Lepidoptera were associated with only one or two larval host plant species belonging to the same family, and the majority were monophagous during this study. During the outbreak, caterpillar densities for the major outbreak species averaged 1.6 larvae per young leaf and 0.18 larvae per leaf for leaves of all ages. For canopy trees and lianas, the mean level of leaf damage was 13.8%, ranging from 1–100%. Seven out of 20 tree species sustained most of the damage, with 21–37% of the leaf area consumed. Relative to non-outbreak years, damage levels increased by more than 250% during the outbreak. Single-species outbreaks were observed in other areas with a similar drought, but wetter forests in central Panama did not experience outbreaks during this period. Historically, fewer outbreaks have been reported from tropical forests than from temperate forests, however, similar El Niño-related outbreaks have occurred recently in several other locations throughout the tropics.

Landscape-scale studies of community traits such as species richness and community composition are sorely needed to explore the impact of large-scale disturbance events such as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)-induced burning and habitat isolation on rain-forest communities. Here we assess butterflies in continuous forest, in unburned isolates surrounded by burned forest and in burned forest, in addition to areas sampled before the most recent (1997/98) large-scale burn event in Borneo. Overall levels of species richness were significantly higher pre-ENSO and in continuous forest than in unburned isolates and burned forest. There was, however, some variation among butterfly families in these patterns, with no significant differences among habitats (continuous forest, isolates and burned forest) for the Hesperiidae and significant differences for the other butterfly families. Patterns of community composition showed that similarity was greater between distant continuous forest and isolates than between either of these and burned forest. Since the unburned isolates were surrounded by the burned forest this indicates that the habitat (burned or unburned) overrides geographical differences. Dominant species that contributed substantially to differences among habitats were often completely absent from either burned or unburned forest. The combined patterns of species richness and community structure suggest that burning affects forest ecosystems by a replacement of dominant species while habitat isolation may affect areas by leading to the local extinction of rare species.

The population trend over the last decade for subantarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus tropicalis) on Amsterdam and St. Paul islands and on Possession Island (Crozet Archipelago) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) on Possession Island are analysed. At Amsterdam Island, based on pup counts, the subantarctic fur seal population appears to have stabilized after a period of rapid growth. At Possession Island subantarctic fur seal and Antarctic fur seal, with respective annual growth rates of 19.2 and 17.4%, are reaching the maximum growth rate for the genus Arctocephalus. Annual pup censuses at Possession Island since 1978 indicate important variations from year to year with pup production for A. gazella significantly lower the year after an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, but with no such relationship for A. tropicalis. Several other long term demographic studies of seabirds and marine mammals at different breeding locations in the Southern Ocean indicate that the breeding success of several of these predators appears to be widely affected in years which appear to be related to the ENSO events. To clarify this, it is necessary to analyse in more detail the demographic data obtained for the different subantarctic and Antarctic locations where long term monitoring programmes are conducted.

In tropical forests, severe droughts caused by El Niño events may strongly influence the water relations of tree seedlings and thereby increase their mortality. Data on known-aged seedlings of three common shade-tolerant canopy tree species (Trichilia tuberculata, Tetragastris panamensis and Quararibea asterolepis) in a Panamanian moist forest are presented. Seedling survival during a severe El Niño dry season (1997-98) was compared with prior long-term survival data, and levels of drought stress were assessed by measuring plant water potentials and gas exchange characteristics. Contrary to prediction, dry-season seedling survival was not dramatically reduced in any species compared with that expected in ‘normal’ years. In Trichilia and Quararibea, pre-dawn water potentials averaged −2 MPa and midday water potentials about −3 MPa. Stomatal conductances were very low, averaging 26 mmol m-2 s-1 for Tetragastris and 11–13 mmol m-2 s-1 for Trichilia and Quararibea. Photosynthetic rates also were very low but consistently positive, averaging 0.8–1.1 μmol m-2 s-1. The findings suggest that, once established, seedlings of common tree species in this semi-deciduous forest may be tolerant of drought events.

The mechanism of general flowering in Dipterocarpaceae in the Malay Peninsula is revealed through field survey and meteorological data analyses. The regions of general flowering coincide with those which experienced a low night-time temperature (LNT) c. 2 mo before flowering. This supports the hypothesis that low air temperature induces the development of floral buds of dipterocarps. LNT was found to be caused by radiative cooling during dry spells in winter when the northern subtropical ridge (STR) occasionally migrates southwards with a dry air mass into the equatorial region. LNT events usually occur in La Niña episodes, not in El Niño episodes as believed previously. This is because the southward migration of the STR is associated with the intensification of local meridional Hadley Circulation in the western Pacific, which is strengthened in a La Niña episode. Results suggest that El Niño-like climate change in increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may be critical for the tropical rain forest biome in south-east Asia.