The tragic Andrée balloon expedition of 1897 serves as a haunting reminder of the dangers posed by ice drift during polar exploration. This paper examines Andrée’s initial decision after his balloon flight to march towards Cape Flora in Franz Josef Land, despite its much greater distance compared to the Sjuøyane archipelago. The rationale behind this choice remains unclear, but potential factors include stored supplies, the demonstrated winter survival in Franz Josef Land and the scientific interest in unexplored regions. By analysing historical accounts and employing scenario analyses, this study contributes to a better understanding of Andrée’s perception of ice drift and its impact on their ill-fated journey. The paper explores major forces affecting ice drift, reviews the historical development of understanding ice drift in the area, and presents an analysis of Andrée’s understanding and decision-making. The overall conclusion is that Andrée probably was unaware of the substantial deflection to the right of the direction of the wind that ice drift in the Arctic on average is characterised of due to the Earth’s rotation (the Coriolis effect). Without this deflection, the decision to march towards Cape Flora would have made sense under the assumption of continued northerly winds.

Recent research suggests that the members of the 1897 Andrée balloon expedition could have survived if they had marched towards the depot at Seven Islands instead of the Cape Flora depot after the forced landing at 82°56’N 29°52’E, and furthermore, that they reasonably should have done so given what they knew about the ice drift in the area. This paper comprises an analysis of the expedition’s depots based on a review of original sources, and the results elucidate Andrée’s initial decision to march towards Cape Flora. The Seven Island depot was not yet laid when Andrée departed in his balloon, and the information he had at the time indicated that it was highly uncertain that depot could be laid at all. Moreover, he knew it might be difficult to find the depot even if it had been laid since no exact position for it could be determined in advance. If he arrived at the Seven Islands without being able to obtain supplies there, Andrée knew he would have to continue all the way to Nordenskiöld’s old hut in Mossel Bay. Cape Flora, on the other hand, was certain to offer both supplies and shelter.