Counting processes and their compensators are introduced at a heuristic level. The martingale property of stochastic integrals with respect to a compensated counting process leads to moment estimates and asymptotic normal distributions for statistics arising in multiple state, non-parametric and semi-parametric models. The place of survival models in actuarial education is discussed.

Dependability evaluation is a basic component in the assessment of the quality of repairable systems. We develop a model taking simultaneously into account the occurrence of failures and repairs, together with the observation of user-defined success events. The model is built from a Markovian description of the behavior of the system. We obtain the distribution function of the joint number of observed failures and of delivered services on a fixed mission period of the system. In particular, the marginal distribution of the number of failures can be directly related to the distribution of the Markovian arrival process extensively used in queueing theory. We give both the analytical expressions of the considered distributions and the algorithmic solutions for their evaluation. An asymptotic analysis is also provided.

Age replacement policy is commonly used in order to reduce the number of in-service failures. In this paper we define a multivariate version of this policy and develop some of its desirable properties. We also obtain an optimal age replacement policy.

First, some basic concepts from the theory of point processes are recalled and expanded. Then some notions of stochastic comparisons, which compare whole processes, are introduced. The use of these notions is illustrated by stochastically comparing renewal and related processes. Finally, applications of the different notions of stochastic ordering of point processes to many replacement policies are given.

Models for epidemic spread of infections are formulated by defining intensities for relevant counting processes. It is assumed that an infected individual passes through k stages of infectivity. The times spent in the different stages are random. Many well-known models for the spread of infections can be described in this way. The models can also be applied to describe other processes of epidemic character (such as models for rumour spreading). Asymptotic results are derived both for the size and for the duration of the epidemic.

A simple model for the intensity of infection during an epidemic in a closed population is studied. It is shown that the size of an epidemic (i.e. the number of persons infected) and the cumulative force of an epidemic (i.e. the amount of infectiousness that has to be avoided by a person that will stay uninfected during the entire epidemic) satisfy an equation of balance. Under general conditions, small deviances from this balance are, in large populations, asymptotically mixed normally distributed. For some special epidemic models the size of an asymptotically large epidemic is asymptotically normally distributed.

Several different orderings for the comparison of point processes have been introduced and their relationships discussed in Whitt [9], Daley [2] and Deng [4]. It is of some interest to know whether these orderings, in general, are preserved under various operations on point processes. Some results concerning limit operations were given in Deng [4].

In the present paper, we first further introduce some convex and concave orderings for counting processes, and survey the relationships among all orderings mentioned in [9], [4] and this paper. Then we focus our attention on the study of the conditions for the preservation of orderings under the operations of superposition, thinning, shift, and random change of time.

A Markov step process Z equipped with a possibly non-denumerable state space X can model a variety of queueing, communication and computer networks. The analysis of such networks can be facilitated if certain traffic flows consist of mutually independent Poisson processes with respective deterministic intensities λi (t). Accordingly, we define the multivariate counting process N = (N1, N2, · ·· Nc) induced by Z; a count in Ni occurs whenever Z jumps from x (χ into a (possibly empty) target set . We study N through the infinitesimal operator à of the augmented Markov process W = (Z, N), and the integral relationship connecting à with the transition operator Tt of W. It is then shown that Ni depends on a non-negative function ri defined on χ; ri (x) may be interpreted as the expected rate of increase in Ni, given that Z is in state x.

A multivariate N is Poisson (i.e., composed of mutually independent Poisson streams Ni) if and only if simultaneous jumps are impossible in a certain sense, and if the conditional expectation E[ri (Z(t) | 𝒩i] = E[ri (Z(t))] for i = 1, 2, ···, c and each t ≧ 0, where 𝒩i is the σ-algebra σ{N(s), s ≦ t}. Necessary and sufficient conditions are also specified that, for each s ≦ t, the variates [Ni(t)-Ni(s)] are mutually independent Poisson distributed; this involves a weakened version of E[ri(Z(v)) | N(v) – N(u)] = E [ri(Z(v))] for i = 1, 2, ···, c and all 0 ≦ u ≦ v.

It is shown that the above criteria are automatically met by the more stringent classical requirement that N(t) and Z(t) be independent for each t ≧ 0.

Jumping processes which grow by unit jumps, with decreasing sojourn times between successive jumps, are studied. Markovian birth processes, non-Markovian branching processes, and some generalizations of these are special cases. Three classes are described, in one of which growth is explosive, in the second asymptotically continuous, and in the third oscillatory. A theorem is proved which gives an explicit functional expression in the asymptotically continuous case, and borderline cases between the classes are investigated.