Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is prevalent among livestock and wildlife in many countries including New Zealand (NZ), a country which aims to eradicate bTB by 2055. This study evaluates predictions related to the numbers of livestock herds with bTB in NZ from 2012 to 2021 inclusive using both statistical and mechanistic (causal) modelling. Additionally, this study made predictions for the numbers of infected herds between 2022 and 2059. This study introduces a new graphical method representing the causal criteria of strength of association, such as R2, and the consistency of predictions, such as mean squared error. Mechanistic modelling predictions were, on average, more frequently (3 of 4) unbiased than statistical modelling predictions (1 of 4). Additionally, power model predictions were, on average, more frequently (3 of 4) unbiased than exponential model predictions (1 of 4). The mechanistic power model, along with annual updating, had the highest R2 and the lowest mean squared error of predictions. It also exhibited the closest approximation to unbiased predictions. Notably, significantly biased predictions were all underestimates. Based on the mechanistic power model, the biological eradication of bTB from New Zealand is predicted to occur after 2055. Disease eradication planning will benefit from annual updating of future predictions.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic infection of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. The Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) project was a 5-year intervention (2014–2018) applied to Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) in a 100 km2 area of County Down, Northern Ireland. This observational study used routine bTB surveillance data of cattle to determine if the TVR intervention had any effect in reducing the infection at a herd level. The study design included the TVR treatment area (Banbridge) compared to the three adjacent 100 km2 areas (Dromore, Ballynahinch, and Castlewellan) which did not receive any badger intervention. Results showed that there were statistically lower bTB herd incidence rate ratios in the Banbridge TVR area compared to two of the other three comparison areas, but with bTB herd history and number of bTB infected cattle being the main explanatory variables along with Year. This finding is consistent with other study results conducted as part of the TVR project that suggested that the main transmission route for bTB in the area was cattle-to-cattle spread. This potentially makes any wildlife intervention in the TVR area of less relevance to bTB levels in cattle. It must also be noted that the scientific power of the TVR study (76%) was below the recommended 80%, meaning that results must be interpreted with caution. Even though statistical significance was achieved in two cattle-related risk factors, other potential risk factors may have also demonstrated significance in a larger study.

For the past 25 years, European badgers (Meles meles) have been subject to culling in Britain in attempts to limit the spread of tuberculosis (TB) to cattle. As part of a far-reaching evaluation of the effectiveness and acceptability of badger culling as a TB control measure, this paper assesses one aspect of the welfare of badger populations subjected to culling: the killing of breeding females, which risks leaving their unweaned cubs to starve in the den. To avoid this possibility, a three-month closed season was adopted, running from 1st February to 30th April, based on the best available estimates of the timing of birth and weaning in British badgers. During May 1999–2003, when a total of 4705 adult badgers were culled, field teams failed to capture 12 unweaned litters when their mothers were despatched. In 31 other cases, lactating females were culled but litters of almost-weaned cubs were also caught and despatched at the same dens, usually within a day of capture of the mother. The number of unweaned cubs missed by culling teams — estimated at approximately nine per year on average — was dramatically lower than that projected by a badger welfare lobby group. Our data suggest that the closed season is effective in reducing the suffering of unweaned cubs in badger populations subject to culling, and we recommend that this measure be maintained should badger culling form a component of any future TB control policy.

For over 25 years, European badgers (Meles meles) have been subject to culling in Britain in attempts to limit the spread of tuberculosis (TB) to cattle. As part of a far-reaching evaluation of the effectiveness and acceptability of badger culling as a TB control measure, this paper assesses one aspect of the welfare of badger populations subjected to culling: the risk of badgers confined to cage traps prior to despatch becoming injured as a result of rubbing or biting on the cage. In a large-scale field trial, 88% of badgers received no detectable injuries as a result of being confined in the trap. Of those that were injured, 72% received only minor skin abrasions. A minority (1.8% of the total) acquired damage to the teeth or jaws that may have caused serious pain. Although trap rounds were commenced in the early morning, badgers were no more likely to sustain injuries when they remained in traps until later in the day. Coating of cage traps, intended to give the wire mesh a smoother surface, was associated with a reduction in the incidence of minor skin abrasions, although it may have slightly increased the frequency of less common but more serious abrasions. Modification of the door design reduced tooth damage. Traps will be further modified if appropriate. However, all aspects of the conduct of trapping operations must balance badger welfare with concerns for the health and safety of field staff.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, infectious and zoonotic disease of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. This study investigated farm management factors associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns (n = 2935) disclosed in the period 23 May 2016 to 21 May 2018 and is a follow-up to our 2020 paper which looked at long duration bTB herd breakdowns. A case control study design was used to construct an explanatory set of farm-level management factors associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns. In Northern Ireland, a Department of Agriculture Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) Veterinarian investigates bTB herd breakdowns using standardised guidelines to allocate a disease source. In this study, source was strongly linked to carryover of infection, suggesting that the diagnostic tests had failed to clear herd infection during the breakdown period. Other results from this study associated with recurrent bTB herd breakdowns were herd size and type (dairy herds 43% of cases), with both these variables intrinsically linked. Other associated risk factors were time of application of slurry, badger access to silage clamps, badger setts in the locality, cattle grazing silage fields immediately post-harvest, number of parcels of land the farmer associated with bTB, number of land parcels used for grazing and region of the country.

The role of the Eurasian badger (Meles meles) as a wildlife host has complicated the management of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Badger ranging behaviour has previously been found to be altered by culling of badgers and has been suggested to increase the transmission of bTB either among badgers or between badgers and cattle. In 2014, a five-year bTB intervention research project in a 100 km2 area in Northern Ireland was initiated involving selective removal of dual path platform (DPP) VetTB (immunoassay) test positive badgers and vaccination followed by release of DPP test negative badgers (‘Test and Vaccinate or Remove’). Home range sizes, based on position data obtained from global positioning system collared badgers, were compared between the first year of the project, where no DPP test positive badgers were removed, and follow-up years 2–4 when DPP test positive badgers were removed. A total of 105 individual badgers were followed over 21 200 collar tracking nights. Using multivariable analyses, neither annual nor monthly home ranges differed significantly in size between years, suggesting they were not significantly altered by the bTB intervention that was applied in the study area.

The Ethiopian government has several initiatives to expand and intensify the dairy industry; however, the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread is a challenge. To assess the rate of expansion and risk factors for transmission of bTB within-herds, we carried out a repeated cross-sectional survey at two time points, 2016/17 and 2018, in three regional cities, namely, Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle, representing the emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. The total number of herds involved was 128, comprising an average of 2303 cattle in each round. The Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test was used to identify reactor status and data on herd-level risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. In the first survey, the apparent prevalence of bTB, as measured by the SICCT test, was 4.5% (95% CI 3.7–5.4%) at the individual animal-level and 24% (95% CI 17.5–32%) at the herd-level. There was no statistically significant change in the overall apparent prevalence or regional distribution at the second survey, consistent with the infection being endemic. The incidence rate was estimated at 3.6 (95% CI 2.8–4.5) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.0–12.6) cases/100 cattle (or herd)-years at the animal- and herd-levels, respectively. Risk factors significantly associated with the within-herd transmission of bTB were age group and within-herd apparent prevalence at the start of the observation period. We noted that farmers voluntarily took steps to remove reactor cattle from their herds as a consequence of the information shared after the first survey. Removal of reactors between surveys was associated with a reduced risk of transmission within these herds. However, with no regulatory barriers to the sale of reactor animals, such actions could potentially lead to further spread between herds. We therefore advocate the importance of setting up regulations and then establishing a systematic bTB surveillance programme to monitor the impact prior to implementing any control measures in Ethiopia.

Mycobacterial infections are widely distributed in animals and cause considerable economic losses, especially in livestock animals. Bovine paratuberculosis and bovine tuberculosis, which are representative mycobacterial infections in cattle, are difficult to diagnose using current-generation diagnostics due to their relatively long incubation periods. Thus, alternative diagnostic tools are needed for the detection of mycobacterial infections in cattle. A biomarker is an indicator present in biological fluids that reflects the biological state of an individual during the progression of a specific disease. Therefore, biomarkers are considered a potential diagnostic tool for various diseases. Recently, the number of studies investigating biomarkers as tools for diagnosing mycobacterial infections has increased. In human medicine, many diagnostic biomarkers have been developed and applied in clinical practice. In veterinary medicine, however, many such developments are still in the early stages. In this review, we summarize the current progress in biomarker research related to the development of diagnostic biomarkers for mycobacterial infections in cattle.

This study determined farm management factors associated with long-duration bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns disclosed in the period 23 May 2016 to 21 May 2018; a study area not previously subject to investigation in Northern Ireland. A farm-level epidemiological investigation (n = 2935) was completed when one or more Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Test (SICCT) reactors or when one or more confirmed (positive histological and/or bacteriological result) lesion at routine slaughter were disclosed. A case-control study design was used to construct an explanatory set of management factors associated with long-duration bTB herd breakdowns; with a case (n = 191) defined as an investigation into a breakdown of 365 days or longer. Purchase of infected animal(s) had the strongest association as the most likely source of infection for long-duration bTB herd breakdowns followed by badgers and then cattle-to-cattle contiguous herd spread. However, 73.5% (95% CI 61.1–85.9%) of the herd type contributing to the purchase of infection source were defined as beef fattening herds. This result demonstrates two subpopulations of prolonged bTB breakdowns, the first being beef fattening herds with main source continuous purchase of infected animals and a second group of primary production herds (dairy, beef cows and mixed) with risk from multiple sources.

Disease surveillance can be made more effective by either improving disease detection, providing cost savings, or doing both. Currently, cattle herds in low-risk areas (LRAs) for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in England are tested once every 4 years. In Scotland, the default herd testing frequency is also 4 years, but a risk-based system exempts some herds from testing altogether. To extend this approach to other areas, a bespoke understanding of at-risk herds and how risk-based surveillance can affect bTB detection is required. Here, we use a generalized linear mixed model to inform a Bayesian probabilistic model of freedom from infection and explore risk-based surveillance strategies in LRAs and Scotland. Our analyses show that in both areas the primary herd-level risk factors for bTB infection are the size of the herd and purchasing cattle from high-risk areas of Great Britain and/or Ireland. A risk-based approach can improve the current surveillance system by both increasing detection (9% and 7% fewer latent infections), and reducing testing burden (6% and 26% fewer animal tests) in LRAs and Scotland, respectively. Testing at-risk herds more frequently can also improve the level of detection by identifying more infected cases and reducing the hidden burden of the disease, and reduce surveillance effort by exempting low-risk herds from testing.

Post-mortem examination continues to play an important surveillance role in the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) eradication programme in Northern Ireland. It is estimated that 18–28% of new bTB herd breakdowns are disclosed by the detection of bTB lesions in animals routinely slaughtered. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of different slaughterhouses in Northern Ireland in detecting bTB-lesioned animals at routine slaughter (LRS) and to apply the findings to maximize the sensitivity of bTB slaughterhouse surveillance. Univariate statistical analysis on cattle slaughtered in Northern Ireland during 2011–2013 revealed that the risk of LRS disclosure varied between slaughterhouses, ranging from 0·08% to 0·54%. Furthermore, the risk of confirmation of these LRS as bTB varied between slaughterhouses, ranging from 57·9% to 72·4%. Logistic regression modelling of selected risk factors found that the risk of LRS disclosure increased with age, and was higher in purchased animals, during winter months, in animals coming from high bTB incidence areas and in animals slaughtered from herds with a bTB restriction in the last 2–3 years. Adjusting for these selected factors, the risk of LRS disclosure and bTB confirmation changed very little from the univariable analysis, suggesting that differences in disclosure risks between slaughterhouses were likely to be due to factors related to the slaughterhouses, rather than to the risk status of the animals presented. Examination of procedures within these slaughterhouses is recommended to identify ways that could increase the sensitivity of their bTB surveillance.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis, a pathogen that may be extremely difficult to eradicate in the presence of a true wildlife reservoir. Our objective was to identify and review relevant literature and provide a succinct summary of current knowledge of risk factors for transmission of infection of cattle. Search strings were developed to identify publications from electronic databases to February 2015. Abstracts of 4255 papers identified were reviewed by three reviewers to determine whether the entire article was likely to contain relevant information. Risk factors could be broadly grouped as follows: animal (including nutrition and genetics), herd (including bTB and testing history), environment, wildlife and social factors. Many risk factors are inter-related and study designs often do not enable differentiation between cause and consequence of infection. Despite differences in study design and location, some risk factors are consistently identified, e.g. herd size, bTB history, presence of infected wildlife, whereas the evidence for others is less consistent and coherent, e.g. nutrition, local cattle movements. We have identified knowledge gaps where further research may result in an improved understanding of bTB transmission dynamics. The application of targeted, multifactorial disease control regimens that address a range of risk factors simultaneously is likely to be a key to effective, evidence-informed control strategies.

Germany has been an officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB)-free (OTF) country since 1996. Gradually rising numbers of bTB herd incidents due to Mycobacterium bovis and M. caprae in North-Western and Southern Germany during the last few years prompted the competent authorities to conduct a nationwide bTB survey in 2013/2014. This led to the detection of a dairy herd in which as many as 55 cattle reacted positively to consecutive intra vitam testing. Test-positive animals lacked visible lesions indicative of bTB at necropsy. Extensive mycobacterial culturing as well as molecular testing of samples from 11 tissues for members of the M. tuberculosis complex (MTC) yielded negative results throughout. However, caseous lymphadenitis of Ln. mandibularis accessorius was observed during meat inspection of a fattening pig from the same farm at regular slaughter at that time. Respective tissue samples tested MTC positive by polymerase chain reaction, and M. tuberculosis T1 family were identified by spoligotyping. Four human reactors within the farmer's family were also found to be immunoreactive. As exposure of livestock to M. tuberculosis is not generally considered, its impact may result in regulatory and practical difficulties when using protocols designed to detect classical bTB, particularly in OTF countries.

Despite many years of state-sponsored efforts to eradicate the disease from cattle through testing and slaughter, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is still regarded as the most important and complex of animal health challenges facing the British livestock agricultural industry. This paper provides a historical analysis of the ongoing bTB statutory eradication programme in one part of the UK – Northern Ireland (NI) – which began in 1949 as a voluntary scheme, but between 1959 and 1960 became compulsory for all cattle herd-owners. Tracing bTB back through time sets the eradication efforts of the present day within a deeper context, and provides signposts for what developed in subsequent decades. The findings are based primarily on empirical research using historical published reports of the Ministry of Agriculture and state documents held in the public archives in NI, and they emphasize the need to consider the economic, social and political contexts of disease eradication efforts and their influences on both the past and the present.

Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis), the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, has been identified in nine geographically distinct wildlife populations in North America and Hawaii and is endemic in at least three populations, including members of the Bovidae, Cervidae, and Suidae families. The emergence of M. bovis in North American wildlife poses a serious and growing risk for livestock and human health and for the recreational hunting industry. Experience in many countries, including the USA and Canada, has shown that while M. bovis can be controlled when restricted to livestock species, it is almost impossible to eradicate once it has spread into ecosystems with free-ranging maintenance hosts. Therefore, preventing transmission of M. bovis to wildlife may be the most effective way to mitigate economic and health costs of this bacterial pathogen. Here we review the status of M. bovis infection in wildlife of North America and identify risks for its establishment in uninfected North American wildlife populations where eradication or control would be difficult and costly. We identified four common risk factors associated with establishment of M. bovis in uninfected wildlife populations in North America, (1) commingling of infected cattle with susceptible wildlife, (2) supplemental feeding of wildlife, (3) inadequate surveillance of at-risk wildlife, and (4) unrecognized emergence of alternate wildlife species as successful maintenance hosts. We then propose the use of integrated and adaptive disease management to mitigate these risk factors to prevent establishment of M. bovis in susceptible North American wildlife species.

Mycobacterium bovis causes bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in many mammals including cattle, deer and brushtail possum. The aim of this study was to estimate the strength of association, using model selection (AICc) regression analyses, between the proportion of cattle and farmed deer herds with bTB in New Zealand and annual costs of TB control, namely disease control in livestock, in wildlife or in a combination of the two. There was more support for curved (concave up) than linear models which related the proportion of cattle and farmed deer herds with bTB to the annual control costs. The curved, concave-up, best-fitting relationships showed diminishing returns with no positive asymptote and implied TB eradication is feasible in New Zealand.

The European badger (Meles meles) has been identified as a wildlife reservoir of bovine tuberculosis and a source of transmission to cattle in Britain and Ireland. Both behavioural ecology and statistical ecological modelling have indicated the long-term persistence of the disease in some badger communities, and this is postulated to account for the high incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle across large tracts of England and Wales. This paper questions this consensus by using historical cartographic evidence to show that tuberculosis in cattle had a very different spatial distribution before 1960 to the present day. Since few of the badgers collected in road traffic accidents between 1972 and 1990 had tuberculosis in counties such as Cheshire, where the disease had until shortly before that been rife in the cattle population, the role of badgers as reservoirs in spreading disease in similar counties outside the south-west of England has to be questioned.