We study ergodic properties of a class of Markov-modulated general birth–death processes under fast regime switching. The first set of results concerns the ergodic properties of the properly scaled joint Markov process with a parameter that is taken to be large. Under very weak hypotheses, we show that if the averaged process is exponentially ergodic for large values of the parameter, then the same applies to the original joint Markov process. The second set of results concerns steady-state diffusion approximations, under the assumption that the ‘averaged’ fluid limit exists. Here, we establish convergence rates for the moments of the approximating diffusion process to those of the Markov-modulated birth–death process. This is accomplished by comparing the generator of the approximating diffusion and that of the joint Markov process. We also provide several examples which demonstrate how the theory can be applied.

We discuss a continuous-time Markov branching model in which each individual can trigger an alarm according to a Poisson process. The model is stopped when a given number of alarms is triggered or when there are no more individuals present. Our goal is to determine the distribution of the state of the population at this stopping time. In addition, the state distribution at any fixed time is also obtained. The model is then modified to take into account the possible influence of death cases. All distributions are derived using probability-generating functions, and the approach followed is based on the construction of families of martingales.

We consider compound geometric approximation for a nonnegative, integer-valued random variable W. The bound we give is straightforward but relies on having a lower bound on the failure rate of W. Applications are presented to M/G/1 queuing systems, for which we state explicit bounds in approximations for the number of customers in the system and the number of customers served during a busy period. Other applications are given to birth–death processes and Poisson processes.

During the course of a day an individual typically mixes with different groups of individuals. Epidemic models incorporating population structure with individuals being able to infect different groups of individuals have received extensive attention in the literature. However, almost exclusively the models assume that individuals are able to simultaneously infect members of all groups, whereas in reality individuals will typically only be able to infect members of any group they currently reside in. In this paper we develop a model where individuals move between a community and their household during the course of the day, only infecting within their current group. By defining a novel branching process approximation with an explicit expression for the probability generating function of the offspring distribution, we are able to derive the probability of a major epidemic outbreak.

We study continuous-time birth–death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q] = 1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state (has size) n is α(n). We focus on two important examples, namely α(n) = λ n being a branching process, and α(n) = λn(N - n) / N which corresponds to an SIS (susceptible → infective → susceptible) epidemic model in a homogeneously mixing community of fixed size N. The processes are assumed to start with a single individual, i.e. in state 1. Let T, An, C, and S denote the (random) time to extinction, the total time spent in state n, the total number of individuals ever alive, and the sum of the lifetimes of all individuals in the birth–death process, respectively. We give expressions for the expectation of all these quantities and show that these expectations are insensitive to the distribution of Q. We also derive an asymptotic expression for the expected time to extinction of the SIS epidemic, but now starting at the endemic state, which is not independent of the distribution of Q. The results are also applied to the household SIS epidemic, showing that, in contrast to the household SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic, its threshold parameter R* is insensitive to the distribution of Q.

Let S be a countable set and let Q = (qij, i, j ∈ S) be a conservative q-matrix over S with a single instantaneous state b. Suppose that we are given a real number μ ≥ 0 and a strictly positive probability measure m = (mj, j ∈ S) such that ∑i∈Smiqij = −μmj, j ≠ b. We prove that there exists a Q-process P(t) = (pij(t), i, j ∈ S) for which m is a μ-invariant measure, that is ∑i∈Smipij(t) = e−μtmj, j∈S. We illustrate our results with reference to the Kolmogorov ‘K1’ chain and a birth-death process with catastrophes and instantaneous resurrection.

An explicit, computable, and sufficient condition for exponential ergodicity of single-birth processes is presented. The corresponding criterion for birth–death processes is proved using a new method. As an application, some sufficient conditions are obtained for exponential ergodicity of an extended class of continuous-time branching processes and of multidimensional Q-processes, by comparison methods.

It is shown that the method of deriving bounds on the rate of convergence for birth–death processes developed by Zeifman can be effectively applied to stochastic models of chemical reactions.

A continuous-time Markov chain on the non-negative integers is called skip-free to the right (left) if only unit increments to the right (left) are permitted. If a Markov chain is skip-free both to the right and to the left, it is called a birth–death process. Karlin and McGregor (1959) showed that if a continuous-time Markov chain is monotone in the sense of likelihood ratio ordering then it must be an (extended) birth–death process. This paper proves that if an irreducible Markov chain in continuous time is monotone in the sense of hazard rate (reversed hazard rate) ordering then it must be skip-free to the right (left). A birth–death process is then characterized as a continuous-time Markov chain that is monotone in the sense of both hazard rate and reversed hazard rate orderings. As an application, the first-passage-time distributions of such Markov chains are also studied.

This paper employs the methods currently used to solve many queuing control models in order to investigate the behavior of a firm's optimal advertising and pricing strategies over time. Given that a firm's market position expands or deteriorates in a probabilistic way which depends upon the current position, the rate of advertising, and the price the firm charges, we present conditions which ensure that the optimal level of advertising is a monotonic function of the firm's market position, and we discuss the economic meaning of these conditions. Furthermore, although the primary focus is upon a non-competitive environment, we develop the above model as a non-zero sum, two-person stochastic game and show that an equilibrium strategy exists which is simple to compute.