Advice from avian influenza experts suggests that there is a high risk that highly pathogenic avian influenza will arrive in the Southern Ocean during the austral summers.

In the last several decades, avian influenza virus has caused numerous outbreaks around the world. These outbreaks pose a significant threat to the poultry industry and also to public health. When an avian influenza (AI) outbreak occurs, it is critical to make informed decisions about the potential risks, impact, and control measures. To this end, many modeling approaches have been proposed to acquire knowledge from different sources of data and perspectives to enhance decision making. Although some of these approaches have shown to be effective, they do not follow the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). KDD is an iterative process, consisting of five steps, that aims at extracting unknown and useful information from the data. The present review attempts to survey AI modeling methods in the context of KDD process. We first divide the modeling techniques used in AI into two main categories: data-intensive modeling and small-data modeling. We then investigate the existing gaps in the literature and suggest several potential directions and techniques for future studies. Overall, this review provides insights into the control of AI in terms of the risk of introduction and spread of the virus.

Animal disease outbreaks can cause disruptions in domestic and international markets. Business continuity aims to provide a proactive approach to alleviate some of these negative effects on consumers, producers, and agribusinesses. Using a partial equilibrium model of the U.S. egg industry, the economic impacts of business continuity during an epidemiological simulated disease event are modeled. Results show total welfare losses can be reduced by allowing permitted movement during an outbreak given a specified level of biosecurity. Understanding the potential market responses business continuity can have on the market may lead to reductions in the negative implications of a disease event.

Since the first human A/H7N9 infection in Hong Kong, there has been an ongoing threat of human-to-human transmission, potentially causing a pandemic. Because there is no vaccine for A/H7N9, the individual preventive measures become all the more important for reducing transmission. However, due to the ongoing threat of numerous avian influenza viruses, the public may suffer from pandemic-media-fatigue. This study was done to assess the need for a targeted A/H7N9 health promotion campaign. Steven and Gillam’s framework using epidemiological, comparative, and corporate approaches was used to assess the need for a targeted A/H7N9 health promotion campaign.

Local surveillance data showed that Hong Kong faces a double burden of increasing seasonal influenza activity and threat of an avian influenza pandemic. Experts warned of potential severity and difficulties in A/H7N9 control. In contrast, surveys showed that the Hong Kong public were suffering from pandemic-media-fatigue, lacked anxiety, had misconceptions, and were not vigilant in preventive practices. This was more evident in certain demographics. Content analysis showed that health promotion materials were not targeted or tailored in countries with human A/H7N9 cases. Targeted health promotion campaigns and framing the issue to increase public and media awareness are crucial in preventing the current pandemic-media-fatigue. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:596-604)

Almost the full range of 16 haemagglutinin (HA) and nine neuraminidase subtypes of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has been detected either in waterfowl, land-based poultry or in the environment in Bangladesh. AIV infections in Bangladesh affected a wide range of host species of terrestrial poultry. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) H5N1 and low pathogenic AI H9N2 were found to co-circulate and be well entrenched in the poultry population, which has caused serious damage to the poultry industry since 2007. By reviewing the available scientific literature, the overall situation of AIVs in Bangladesh is discussed. All Bangladeshi (BD) H5N1 and H9N2 AIV sequences available at GenBank were downloaded along with other representative sequences to analyse the genetic diversity among the circulating AIVs in Bangladesh and to compare with the global situation. Three different H5N1 clades, 2.2.2, 2.3.2.1 and 2.3.4.2, have been detected in Bangladesh. Only 2.3.2.1a is still present. The BD LP H9N2 viruses mostly belonged to the H9 G1 lineage but segregated into many branches, and some of these shared internal genes with HP viruses of subtypes H7N3 and H5N1. However, these reassortment events might have taken place before introduction to Bangladesh. Currently, H9N2 viruses continue to evolve their HA cleavage, receptor binding and glycosylation sites. Multiple mutations in the HA gene associated with adaptation to mammalian hosts were also observed. Strict biosecurity at farms and gradual phasing out of live-bird markets could be the key measures to better control AIVs, whereas stamping out is not a practicable option in Bangladesh. Vaccination also could be an additional tool, which however, requires careful planning. Continuous monitoring of AIVs through systematic surveillance and genetic characterisation of the viruses remains a hallmark of AI control.

From December 2014 to June 2015, U.S. poultry was affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza that led to destruction of 48 million birds and losses in international trade. During the event, 45 countries placed trade restrictions on U.S. poultry exports, varying from regionalized to national poultry restrictions. Using a gravity model of trade, the effects on quantity traded is estimated for poultry exports at the aggregated and disaggregated commodity level to understand product flows during an event. Results indicate U.S. poultry exports benefit from countries willing to apply limited trade restrictions, and the trade impact varies across disaggregated commodities.

H9N2 is the most widespread avian influenza virus subtype in poultry worldwide. It infects a broad spectrum of host species including birds and mammals. Infections in poultry and humans vary from silent to fatal. Importantly, all AIV, which are fatal in humans (e.g. H5N1, H7N9) acquired their ‘internal’ gene segments from H9N2 viruses. Although H9N2 is endemic in the Middle East (ME) and North Africa since the late 1990s, little is known about its epidemiology and genetics on a regional level. In this review, we summarised the epidemiological situation of H9N2 in poultry and mammals in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. The virus has been isolated from humans in Egypt and serosurveys indicated widespread infection particularly among poultry workers and pigs in some countries. Some isolates replicated well in experimentally inoculated dogs, mice, hamsters and ferrets. Insufficient protection of immunised poultry was frequently reported most likely due to concurrent viral or bacterial infections and antigenic drift of the field viruses from outdated vaccine strains. Genetic analysis indicated several distinct phylogroups including a panzootic genotype in the Asian and African parts of the ME, which may be useful for the development of vaccines. The extensive circulation of H9N2 for about 20 years in this region where the H5N1 virus is also endemic in some countries, poses a serious public health threat. Regional surveillance and control strategy are highly recommended.

Chicken meat is an economically important part of Chinese food security, but has suffered relatively consistent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2004. This review evaluates the extent of quantity losses caused by HPAI events on Chinese chicken meat supply and demand (domestic production, consumption, imports and exports) between 2004 and 2013, using a partial equilibrium model. The largest losses were experienced in 2004 and 2005 (4,496,700 tons) which accounted for 38.84% and 33.76% of total respectively. Across the full review period the largest impacts were on per capita consumption (2.7 million tons) followed by production (2.5 million tons), imports (0.73 million tons) and exports (0.21 million tons). Research suggests that higher imports of chicken meat during HPAI events, branding strategies and investment in food safety management through the sector may help to avoid or minimise future HPAI losses in China.

Preliminary evidence suggests that direct poultry contact may play a lesser role in transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) than A(H5N1) to humans. To better understand differences in risk factors, we quantified the degree of poultry contact reported by H5N1 and H7N9 World Health Organization-confirmed cases. We used publicly available data to classify cases by their degree of poultry contact, including direct and indirect. To account for potential data limitations, we used two methods: (1) case population method in which all cases were classified using a range of sources; and (2) case subset method in which only cases with detailed contact information from published research literature were classified. In the case population, detailed exposure information was unavailable for a large proportion of cases (H5N1, 54%; H7N9, 86%). In the case subset, direct contact proportions were higher in H5N1 cases (70·3%) than H7N9 cases (40·0%) (χ2 = 18·5, P < 0·001), and indirect contact proportions were higher in H7N9 cases (44·6%) than H5N1 cases (19·4%) (χ2 = 15·5, P < 0·001). Together with emerging evidence, our descriptive analysis suggests direct poultry contact is a clearer risk factor for H5N1 than for H7N9, and that other risk factors should also be considered for H7N9.

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia, Europe, and Africa have caused severe impacts on the poultry sector through bird mortality and culling, as well as resulting trade restrictions and negative demand shocks. Although poultry producers play a major role in preventing and controlling avian influenza, little research has examined the influence of their farm-level decision making on the spread of the disease. In this study, we describe farm behavior under livestock disease risk and discuss data and analyses necessary to generate sound empirical evidence to inform public avian influenza prevention and control measures.

The U.S. poultry industry has spent considerable resources to date preparing for an outbreak of avian influenza in this country. This research quantifies the potential effects of two alternative avian influenza scenarios on the poultry industry. In addition, this research looks at effects on other agriculture sectors including the loss of feed demand from an outbreak and the impacts on aggregate measures like farm income and consumer food expenditures. The economic sector model maintained by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) is employed for these scenarios.

This article addresses the dynamic impact of the 2005 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak on the Turkish poultry sector. Contemporary time-series analyses with historical decomposition graphs are used to address differences in monthly price adjustments between market levels along the Turkish poultry supply channel. The empirical results show that price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to both speed and magnitude along the marketing channel. Results also reveal a differential impact of the exogenous shock on producers and retailers. The findings have critical efficiency and equity implications for the supply-chain participants.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) is an important zoonotic pathogen, resulting in global human morbidity and mortality and substantial economic losses to the poultry industry. Poultry and wild birds have transmitted AIV to humans, most frequently subtypes H5 and H7, but also different strains and subtypes of H6, H9, and H10. Determining which birds are AIV reservoirs can help identify human populations that have a high risk of infection with these viruses due to occupational or recreational exposure to the reservoir species. To assess the prevalence of AIV in tropical birds, from 2010 to 2014, we sampled 40 099 birds at 32 sites in Central Africa (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon) and West Africa (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo). In Central Africa, detection rates by real-time RT–PCR were 16·6% in songbirds (eight passerine families, n = 1257), 16·4% in kingfishers (family Alcedinidae, n = 73), 8·2% in ducks (family Anatidae, n = 564), and 3·65% in chickens (family Phasianidae, n = 1042). Public health authorities should educate human cohorts that have high exposure to these bird populations about AIV and assess their adherence to biosecurity practices, including Cameroonian farmers who raise small backyard flocks.

Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more ‘risky’ option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.

Avian influenza is a highly pathogenic poultry disease found around the globe. It is caused by different strains of avian influenza virus. The H5N1 strain is not spread worldwide in humans, although, sporadic contaminations have been reported. It is known that the virus spreads from animals to humans however, there is concern regarding the evolution of the virus and that it is now possible for the virus to spread from human to human. There is currently no vaccine available that can act against all strains of the virus, although some vaccines have reached clinical trial stage. Regardless, there is a great need to develop a vaccine which will be effective against all strains of avian influenza. This review will focus on recent advances with special reference to the development of DNA vaccines against avian influenza. The specific importance, the hurdles to development and the possible future strategies for the development of DNA vaccines against multiple strains of avian influenza will be discussed.

Prevalence monitoring of avian influenza in wild bird populations is important to estimate risks for the occurrence of potentially zoonotic and economically disastrous outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry worldwide. A targeted, cost-effective monitoring method for AIV in wild birds was developed, which is based on monitoring results for AIV in Germany and information on the distribution and abundance of wild bird species in selected habitat types. Spatial data were combined with virological and outbreak data for the period of 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010. Using Germany as an example, we identified 11 indicator species. By concentrating monitoring efforts on these species in spatially confined locations, we propose a targeted and more cost-effective risk-based AIV monitoring approach that can be adapted universally for the identification of wild bird indicator species worldwide with the perspective of reducing sample sizes (and costs) without impairing the validity of the results.

The potential for direct transmission of type A influenza viruses from wild waterfowl to humans is undefined. This study estimated exposure of hunters to avian influenza virus (AIV) resulting from direct contact with potentially infected waterfowl in Georgia (GA), Louisiana (LA) and Minnesota (MN), and demonstrated variation in the risk of exposure to AIV by hunting location and time. Hunting begins earlier in MN, starting in October, and later in GA and LA, usually starting in November. In addition, the numbers of hunters and birds harvested varies considerably in each state, with LA hosting the largest harvest in the USA Temporal effects resulted in variation of the exposure risk per hunter-day, with a higher risk associated with the earlier months of the hunting season. Exposure risk in locations varied due to AIV prevalence during each hunting season, average bird harvest per hunter-day, and ratio of juveniles/adult birds harvested (higher risk associated with higher ratios). Population risk is discussed based on the exposure risk and number of active hunters in each state per month. The risk of human exposure to AIV was also shown to be temporally distinct from the time of greatest risk of human influenza A infection during circulation of seasonal human influenza viruses, making recombination events due to co-infection unlikely.

Ducks are considered to play an important role in the transmission and maintenance of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus. However, there is limited information on duck management practices in countries where HPAI is endemic. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted on 96 ‘stationary’ smallholder duck farms in Indonesia to describe the management of ducks and to identify practices that could potentially promote the risk of HPAI spread. The mean flock size was 29 ducks, ranging from 1 up to 150 birds. Both the sale and the consumption of eggs were the most important purposes of duck keeping, followed by the use of droppings for fertilizer and the production of meat ducks. About 77% of duck owners allowed their ducks to scavenge. Important hazards for interspecies HPAI virus transmission related to scavenging were identified: 1) intermingling between ducks and chickens on duck farms (48%); 2) frequent contact with neighbours’ chickens (44%); 3) visits to the same paddies by duck flocks from other farms (88%); 4) in the paddies, contact between duck flock and other ducks, chickens, people and wild birds as reported by 88%, 30%, 80% and 77% of duck owners respectively; 5) the keeping of singing birds by 17% of farmers; 6) predators such as the small Asian mongoose (Herpestes javanicus) (25%) and feral cats (20%) visiting the duck farms (these species are susceptible to HPAI infection and might play a role in the spread of the HPAI virus). Many duck owners associated deaths of their birds with the use of pesticides in the rice paddies, and appeared to be more concerned about pesticide toxicity, problems that inhibit scavenging ability and external parasites than about HPAI, which in general was not considered to be of high importance. Hence HPAI vaccination or preventive culling of ducks during disease outbreaks was not conducted on the study farms.

Data from a three-year panel (2006–2008) obtained from selected respondents, was used to investigate the impact of the avian influenza (AI) outbreak on the chicken markets in Benin. The trends in sales volume and profit were used as proxy for performance. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression model was used to examine the factors affecting profit. In general, the AI outbreak adversely affected the performance of the markets during the imposition of restrictions on poultry trade. When AI broke out in Benin and poultry trade restrictions were imposed, the volume of chickens sold per market day per seller declined by 69%. Overall, the AI outbreak did not have an adverse effect on the profit made by the poultry producer/sellers and middlemen. The regression results suggested that the chicken market is more favourable in terms of profit margin for women, literates, young people, middlemen and sellers in Kolokonde regional market. The municipal authority's levy has a negative effect on profitability, while the undersupply of chickens and average volume of sales per market day and provision of market shelters have positive effects. The level of state authority's levy, provision of market infrastructure, women and youth empowerment programmes and behaviour of poultry suppliers have implications for policy measures in the poultry sector.