Educational assessment concerns inference about students' knowledge, skills, and accomplishments. Because data are never so comprehensive and unequivocal as to ensure certitude, test theory evolved in part to address questions of weight, coverage, and import of data. The resulting concepts and techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty. Issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from this perspective.

A method for robust canonical discriminant analysis via two robust objective loss functions is discussed. These functions are useful to reduce the influence of outliers in the data. Majorization is used at several stages of the minimization procedure to obtain a monotonically convergent algorithm. An advantage of the proposed method is that it allows for optimal scaling of the variables. In a simulation study it is shown that under the presence of outliers the robust functions outperform the ordinary least squares function, both when the underlying structure is linear in the variables as when it is nonlinear. Furthermore, the method is illustrated with empirical data.

Several neural networks have been proposed in the general literature for pattern recognition and clustering, but little empirical comparison with traditional methods has been done. The results reported here compare neural networks using Kohonen learning with a traditional clustering method (K-means) in an experimental design using simulated data with known cluster solutions. Two types of neural networks were examined, both of which used unsupervised learning to perform the clustering. One used Kohonen learning with a conscience and the other used Kohonen learning without a conscience mechanism. The performance of these nets was examined with respect to changes in the number of attributes, the number of clusters, and the amount of error in the data. Generally, the K-means procedure had fewer points misclassified while the classification accuracy of neural networks worsened as the number of clusters in the data increased from two to five.

This paper presents a new procedure called TREEFAM for estimating ultrametric tree structures from proximity data confounded by differential stimulus familiarity. The objective of the proposed TREEFAM procedure is to quantitatively “filter out” the effects of stimulus unfamiliarity in the estimation of an ultrametric tree. A conditional, alternating maximum likelihood procedure is formulated to simultaneously estimate an ultrametric tree, under the unobserved condition of complete stimulus familiarity, and subject-specific parameters capturing the adjustments due to differential unfamiliarity. We demonstrate the performance of the TREEFAM procedure under a variety of alternative conditions via a modest Monte Carlo experimental study. An empirical application provides evidence that the TREEFAM outperforms traditional models that ignore the effects of unfamiliarity in terms of superior tree recovery and overall goodness-of-fit.

Factor analysis and principal component analysis are usually followed by simple structure rotations of the loadings. These rotations optimize a certain criterion (e.g., varimax, oblimin), designed to measure the degree of simple structure of the pattern matrix. Simple structure can be considered optimal if a (usually large) number of pattern elements is exactly zero. In the present paper, a class of oblique rotation procedures is proposed to rotate a pattern matrix such that it optimally resembles a matrix which has an exact simple pattern. It is demonstrated that this method can recover relatively complex simple structures where other well-known simple structure rotation techniques fail.

A split-sample replication stopping rule for hierarchical cluster analysis is compared with the internal criterion previously found superior by Milligan and Cooper (1985) in their comparison of 30 different procedures. The number and extent of overlap of the latent population distributions was systematically varied in the present evaluation of stopping-rule validity. Equal and unequal population base rates were also considered. Both stopping rules correctly identified the actual number of populations when there was essentially no overlap and clusters occupied visually distinct regions of the measurement space. The replication criterion, which is evaluated by clustering of cluster means from preliminary analyses that are accomplished on random partitions of an original data set, was superior as the degree of overlap in population distributions increased. Neither method performed adequately when overlap obliterated visually discernible density nodes.

With random assignment to treatments and standard assumptions, either a one-way ANOVA of post-test scores or a two-way, repeated measures ANOVA of pre- and post-test scores provides a legitimate test of the equal treatment effect null hypothesis for latent variable Θ. In an ANCOVA for pre- and post-test variables X and Y which are ordinal measures of η and Θ, respectively, random assignment and standard assumptions ensure the legitimacy of inferences about the equality of treatment effects on latent variable Θ. Sample estimates of adjusted Y treatment means are ordinal estimators of adjusted post-test means on latent variable Θ.

A well-known result is that the usual correlation coefficient, ρ, is highly nonrobust: very slight changes in only one of the marginal distributions can alter ρ by a substantial amount. There are a variety of methods for correcting this problem. This paper identifies one particular method which is useful in psychometrics and provides a simple test for independence. It is not recommended that the new test replace the usual test of H0: ρ = 0, but the new test has important advantages over the usual test in terms of both Type I errors and power.