In recent years, a growing number of capital market professionals have projected a low-return environment in US investment portfolios – where returns in most asset classes are expected to drop below historical rates. While these specific forecasts may not fully materialize, it is natural for cyclical investment markets to go through extended periods of lower returns, creating significant risks for public pension systems which rely on investment returns to sustain their long-term solvency and offset budgetary contributions. This paper uses a simulation method to examine the long-term effect of a low-return environment on the unfunded liabilities and contribution costs of US public pension systems while considering the moderating effects of asset allocation strategies, amortization approaches, and contribution policies.

The number of data sources available for academic research on retirement economics and policy has increased rapidly in the past two decades. Data quality and comparability across studies have also improved considerably, with survey questionnaires progressively converging towards common ways of eliciting the same measurable concepts. Probability-based Internet panels have become a more accepted and recognized tool to obtain research data, allowing for fast, flexible, and cost-effective data collection compared to more traditional modes such as in-person and phone interviews. In an era of big data, academic research has also increasingly been able to access administrative records (e.g., Kostøl and Mogstad, 2014; Cesarini et al., 2016), private-sector financial records (e.g., Gelman et al., 2014), and administrative data married with surveys (Ameriks et al., 2020), to answer questions that could not be successfully tackled otherwise.

A quirk in the Social Security benefit formula interacting with the sharp economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause certain groups of near-retirees to suffer significant and permanent reductions to their Social Security retirement benefits. A sudden decline in the Social Security Administration (SSA)'s measure of economywide average wages in the year a worker turns 60 causes the Social Security benefit formula to devalue all the worker's earnings prior to age 60, resulting in a lower measure of career-average earnings and a lower benefit in retirement. A middle-income worker aged 60 in 2020 could receive an annual Social Security benefit reduction of around 9%, with losses through retirement approaching $46,000. Individuals becoming eligible for Social Security Disability Insurance benefits would be subject to similar reductions in percentage terms. Several methods are discussed to reduce or eliminate the likelihood of similar benefit ‘notches’ occurring in the future.

The papers in this volume examine a series of important questions that influence the transition from full time employment to complete retirement. Retirement is shown to be a process as individuals move from career jobs to bridge jobs to being out of the labor force. The articles examine the characteristics of bridge jobs and the employment conditions that older workers prefer. Analysis provided by the authors show the importance of saving throughout work life and how pension plans and retirement saving plans influence the timing of retirement.

We explore the relationships between financial trust and behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, and preferences related to utilizing professional financial advice. Using survey data from the RAND American Life Panel, we find that financial trust is correlated with advice usage and likelihood of seeking advisory services. Leveraging an experiment that randomized provision of and access to advice, we find that trust is an important predictor of who chooses to receive advice, even after controlling for demographic characteristics and financial literacy. However, providing unsolicited advice has little impact on behavior, even for individuals with high levels of trust.

In an effort to promote comparative research on pensions, the Gateway to Global Aging Data is developing harmonized cross-national panel data on pension benefits and retirement incentives. Past research has varied in how it predicts pension benefits for individuals who have not yet claimed their benefits when administrative data on earnings histories is unavailable. We use the Gateway data to evaluate several alternative approaches to computing prospective pension benefits using common survey questions and validate them against matched administrative data. We find that in some settings naïve measures of pension benefit growth from continued work and delayed benefit claiming can perform as well as measures based on administrative data. We also find that prospective benefit levels are sensitive to the heterogeneity of lifecycle earnings dynamics, resulting in substantial measurement error even after accounting for work history.

Gollier proposed in 2008 a model for the analysis of pension schemes that is helpful to focus attention on the impact of intergenerational risk sharing and on the role of the participation constraint. He uses the model to analyze the relative attractiveness of a collective scheme with respect to schemes that may be implemented by individuals for themselves. The analysis makes use of an assumption concerning the ownership rights of investment returns realized by generations that are between career start and retirement at the time of the transition from an individual to a collective system. The present paper investigates the consequences of adopting an alternative assumption. In a calibration exercise, the increase of the effective rate of return obtained by switching from an existing ‘autarky’ scheme to an infinite-horizon ‘collective’ scheme is found to be 8 basis points, as opposed to 72 basis points as reported by Gollier. Additionally, the effects are considered of changes in the specification of agents' preferences, aiming to express the specific nature of retirement income provision in the second pillar. The Black–Scholes assumptions are used to model the economic environment, so that many results can be obtained in closed form.

Engaging in paid employment after claiming retirement benefits may be an important avenue for individuals to work longer as life expectancies rise. After separating from one's career employer, individuals may engage in paid work to stay active or to supplement their current level of retirement savings or both. Individuals who choose not to work after claiming may be expressing their preference to stay retired, perhaps because their retirement income is sufficient. However, the decision to work after claiming may be driven by the lack of retirement planning and insufficient savings, while the lack of post-claiming work may reflect the inability to find adequate employment opportunities. We use administrative records merged with panel data from several surveys of public employees in North Carolina to study the decision to engage in paid work after claiming retirement benefits. More than 60% of active workers plan to work after claiming benefits, while only around 42% of the same sample of individuals have engaged in post-claiming paid work in the first few years after leaving public sector employment. Despite this gap, stated work plans are strongly predictive of actual post-claiming work behavior. Our final analysis uses self-reported measures to gauge the financial well-being of our sample in the early years after leaving career employment.

In many policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but it is vital to most areas of pension policy. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy for Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010, and 2060. These comparisons reveal major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. The implications of using wrong estimates for pension policy, including financial sustainability, are explored.

A large number of Americans do not have bank accounts (the ‘unbanked’) or rely on costly alternative financial services (AFS) such as payday loans (the ‘underbanked’), with implications for wealth accumulation and retirement preparedness. Using primary data, we document large racial/ethnic differences in unbanked and in frequent AFS usage rates. We study the role of socio-economic status (SES), financial literacy, trust in financial institutions, networks, and time preferences in explaining these gaps. While these variables explain a large fraction of the white-minority gaps in unbanked status the same is not true for gaps in AFS use. A Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition confirms these patterns: gaps in unbanked status are mostly explained by differences in endowments across groups, for AFS gaps differences in returns to endowments have the largest explanatory power. Our findings suggest that, while related, unbanked and underbanked are distinct concepts with different underlying causes that may require different policy responses.

Along with data about actual, desired, and anticipated job characteristics, this paper uses a novel data element, the subjective conditional probability of working at age 70, to estimate the causal effects of job characteristics on retirement in the United States. Having flexible work hours is the most consistent predictor of retirement preferences and expectations: if all current workers had flexible hours, the fraction working at age 70 would be 0.322, but it would be just 0.172 if none had this option. Job stress, physical, and cognitive job demands, the option to telecommute, and commuting times were additional predictors of retirement expectations.

This study examines the distribution options of 85 large public retirement plans covering general state employees, teachers, and local government employees. The interest rates used to price annuities vary considerably across the plans. As a result, retirees with the same monthly benefit if a single life benefit is chosen will have substantially different monthly benefits if they select a joint and survivor annuity. We examine the impact of variation in the pricing of annuity options using both cross-plan differences in interest rates and the change in the choice of annuity options in one plan after the price of options changes due to new assumed interest rates and mortality rates.

Working consistently through one's early 60s is key to retirement security. However, workers without access to retirement plans and health insurance will likely struggle to achieve such security. This paper uses the Health and Retirement Study to identify nontraditional jobs – which lack these benefits – and applies sequence analysis to explore how workers aged 50–62 use them. The results suggest that most nontraditional jobs are used by workers consistently, and that fewer workers use these jobs briefly or as a bridge to retirement. Workers consistently in nontraditional jobs end up with less retirement income and are more likely to be depressed.

We examine the role of self-employment in retirement transitions using a panel of administrative tax data. We find that the hazard of self-employment increases at popular retirement ages associated with Social Security eligibility, particularly for those with greater retirement wealth. Late-career transitions to self-employment are associated with a larger drop in income than similar mid-career transitions. Data from the Health and Retirement Study suggest that hours worked also fall upon switching to self-employment. These results suggest that self-employment at older ages may serve as a ‘bridge job,’ allowing workers to gradually reduce hours and earnings along the pathway to retirement.

Due to structural and policy shifts, pension deficit in North Macedonia doubled over a decade and significantly outpaced the central budget deficit. The objective of the paper is to examine fiscal and development effects of few pension-reform designs. We constructed MK-PENS Dynamic Microsimulation Pension Model and simulated the effects of few reforms affecting one stakeholder and few combined reforms. Results robustly suggest that without reform and assuming only statutory pension adjustment, the deficit will remain as is. Simulated scenarios suggest that proposed pension reforms significantly reduce the pension deficit, with the most favourable results obtained within the combined scenarios of shared burden. Gradual introduction of reform's elements should come into play in case large political cost is envisaged.

To ensure the long-term sustainability of the US Social Security System, several policy alternatives can theoretically be implemented. However, in practice, consumer responses can be challenging for policymakers to anticipate. We conducted a randomized survey on the nationally-representative Understanding America Study (UAS) panel where respondents were presented with a series of ‘policy scenarios’ in which the government enacts alternative reforms aimed to reduce the expected shortfall in the trust fund that pays Social Security retirement benefits. These scenarios included an increase in the Social Security payroll tax, an increase in the wage ceiling, and a reduction of benefits. We find that changes in respondents’ subjective expectations about their benefits and how this will affect their behaviors are directionally consistent with what would be expected when individuals are attentive to the available information and form rational expectations (e.g., monthly benefit expectations increase upon the announcement of an increase in the Social Security tax rate or in the wage ceiling, and they decrease less-than-proportionally with hypothetical benefit cuts). However, surprisingly, these changes are not sensitive to the magnitudes of policy change (e.g., the increase in expected benefits is about the same regardless of the size of Social Security payroll tax increases). Individuals with higher levels of education, cognitive ability, and financial literacy are more likely to adjust their expectations as predicted by theory.

Defined contribution (DC) pension plans have been gaining ground in the last 10–20 years as the preferred system for many countries and other agencies, both private and public. The central question for a DC plan is how to invest in order to reach the participant's retirement goals. Given the financial illiteracy of the general population, it is common to offer a default policy for members who do not actively make investment choices. Using data from the Chilean system, we discuss an investment model with fixed contribution rates and compare the results with the existing default policy under multiple objectives. Our results indicate that the Chilean default policy has good overall performance, but specific closed-loop policies have a higher probability of achieving desired retirement goals and can reduce the expected shortfall at retirement.

Explaining cross-country differences in current accounts is difficult. While pay-as-you-go pensions reduce the need to save for retirement, contributions to capital-funded pensions are saved for future consumption. An overlapping-generations analysis shows that capital-funded pensions increase net foreign assets holdings. With a multi-pillar system whose capital-funded part accounts for 18% of pensions, the Austrian current account balance would be 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) higher than with pure pay-as-you-go pensions in 20 years. By comparison, the Austrian current account surplus averages 1.8% of GDP. Empirically, I find that the current account of high-income countries increases with the coverage and replacement rates of capital-funded pensions.

This paper presents results from an online experiment that tested the effect of simple, concise information on respondents' knowledge of the rules of Social Security's Retirement Earnings Test (RET). We find that a straightforward, simple information treatment has a large effect on knowledge of the RET and on prospective choices regarding working and claiming benefits. We tested two additional information treatments that provided more comprehensive information and used illustrative examples. One of the additional treatments used only text, while the other one included a visual tool. Our results suggest that the additional treatments did not further improve knowledge; the simplest intervention yielded the same effect as the more comprehensive ones.

Over the past several decades, private sector workers in the USA with employed-sponsored pensions have experienced a dramatic shift from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution plans, while this trend has been less pronounced for public sector workers. In this paper, we use data from the Health and Retirement Study to explore changes in the retirement incentives and retirement behavior of public and private sector workers over the past quarter-century. We find that both groups have become less likely to report having a DB pension or any pension. Compared to their private sector counterparts, public sector workers have a higher level of retirement wealth and a larger financial gain from continued work at older ages, and these differences by sector are growing across cohorts. Both groups respond to financial incentives in making retirement decisions. However, growing differences by sector in the gain to continued work do not appear to have translated into diverging retirement behavior, as we observe similar trends in the two groups.