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Rationality and Deterrence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Frank C. Zagare
Frank C. Zagare
Affiliation:
State University of New York at Buffalo
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Abstract

This essay explores the relationship between deterrence theory and two distinct notions of rationality associated with it. The author argues that the concept of procedural irrationality, which is the basis of many critiques of contemporary deterrence theory, is not necessarily inconsistent with the instrumental definition of rationality implicit in many models of deterrence. He also argues that some recent rational choice models of deterrence are, nonetheless, deficient in their application of the rationality postulate. Finally, he provides an outline of a possible resolution of the paradox of deterrence.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 2 , January 1990 , pp. 238 - 260
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1990

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References

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3 Morgan (fn. 1), 13.

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15 This is not to suggest that normative questions are outside the scope of legitimate inquiry. It is simply to say that, in general, instrumentalists have used this concept for purposes that are different from, though not necessarily inconsistent with, more traditional normative concerns.

16 Lebow (fn. 6).

17 E.g., Samuelson's theory of revealed preferences. Samuelson, Paul A., “A Note on the Pure Theory of Consumer's Behaviour,” Economica 5 (February 1938), 61–71CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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19 See, for example, Bueno de Mesquita's expected utility model developed in The War Trap (fn. 2) and “The War Trap Revisited” (fn. 2), which postulates decision makers who, by way of their risk functions, distort objective reality.

20 See Stein, Arthur A., “When Misperception Matters,” World Politics 34 (July 1982), 505–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar, for an example of such a merger.

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23 This is why a game theorist would object to Karl W. Deutsch's suggestion that each player in a Chicken game choose his cooperative (C) strategy. Since the resulting outcome (3,3) is not an equilibrium outcome, it is inconsistent with the instrumentalists' definition of rationality. See Deutsch, , The Analysis of International Relations, 3d ed. (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1988), 149–50Google Scholar.

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25 A dominant strategy provides at least as good an outcome for a player as any other, no matter what strategy the other player(s) in the game select. For a further discussion of this and related concepts, see Zagare, Frank C., Game Theory: Concepts and Applications (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1984)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

26 Harsanyi (fn. 24), 332.

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28 The irony of this misunderstanding is hard to miss.

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35 Jervis, Robert, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1984), 19Google Scholar.

36 Achen (fn. 31).

37 There is actually a third option. For their part, micro-level theorists have attempted to recast the theory by placing it on a firmer psychological foundation. This, in my opinion, is constructive, but not necessarily at odds with the second alternative.

38 Ellsberg (fn. 13).

39 Schelling (fn. 34, 1960, 1966).

40 For a critique of the logical foundations of the earlier theoretical literature, see Zagare (fn. 2, 1987), chap. 1.

41 Schelling (fn. 34, 1960, 1966); Ellsberg (fn. 13); Snyder, Glenn H., “Crisis Bargaining,” in Hermann, Charles F., ed., International Crises: Insights From Behavioral Research (New York: Free Press, 1972)Google Scholar; Robert Jervis, “Bargaining and Bargaining Tactics,” in J. Roland Pennock and John W. Chapman, eds., Coercion, Nomos XIV, Yearbook of the American Society for Political and Legal Philosophy (Chicago: Aldine-Atherton, 1972); Kahn, Herman, On Thermonuclear War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1960)Google Scholar.

42 Or, as many have noted, with a “sufficiently” high probability.

43 Gauthier (fn. 2).

44 Brams and Kilgour (fn. 2).

45 Schelling (fn. 4, 1960), 26.

46 Gauthier (fn. 2), 494, to his credit, maintains logical consistency by admitting other possible commitment strategies. “Rational nations,” he writes, “recognizing the need to seek peace and follow it given the costs of war, can unilaterally renounce the first use of nuclear weapons and thereby end all strike policies.” But if this prescription strikes the reader as hopelessly naive, then so should the prescriptions of deterrence theory. Each rests upon self-abnegating choices. Brams and Kilgour assume the same when they allow each player to commit, albeit probabilistically, to a level of nonpreemption.

47 Powell (fn. 2, 1987).

48 Powell's model thereby provides a formalization of Schelling's “strategy-that-leaves-something-to-chance” (fn. 34, 1960).

49 When information is complete, deterrence is never stable. The player with the highest “effective” resolve simply escalates and wins. A similar conclusion is found in Zagare (fn. 2, 1987). 53–54.

50 Gray, Colin S., “Nuclear Strategy: The Case for a Theory of Victory,” International Security 4 (Summer 1979), 54–87CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Nitze, Paul H., “Deterring Our Deterrent,” Foreign Policy 25 (Winter 1976–1977), 195–210CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Wohlstetter, Albert, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs 37 (January 1959), 211–35CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

51 Why, for instance, don't the Soviets simply invade western Europe, given that each side's strategic arsenal is mutually deterred?

52 Maxwell, Stephen, Rationality in Deterrence, Adelphi Paper No. 50 (London: Institute for Strategic Studies, 1968)Google Scholar.

53 Achen (fn. 31), 92.

54 Powell (fn. 2, 1987) 725, admits as much when he writes “One might object that requiring the states' strategies to be sequentially rational and then relying on Nature to impose the irrational sanction does not really solve the credibility problem. I agree with this criticism.” Powell goes on to note, however, that “it is important to realize that this is not so much a criticism of the model as it is a fundamental criticism of the way that the strategy-that-leaves-something-to-chance has attempted to overcome the credibility problem. The model only exposes this weakness.” I concur with this observation. One of the unrecognized advantages of formal models like Powell's is that they facilitate the exposure of underlying assumptions to careful scrutiny.

55 Young, Oran R., The Politics of Force: Bargaining During International Crises (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1968), 218Google Scholar.

56 Ellsberg (fn. 13), 357.

57 Zagare (fn. 2, 1987).

58 Ellsberg (fn. 13), 358.

59 Wagner (fn. 2, 1982), 343.

60 Specifically, if each player prefers executing the deterrent threat, nuclear deterrence is stable; if neither player has a credible threat, it is not; and if only one player's retaliatory threat is credible, that player wins (Zagare [fn. 2, 1987], chap. 2).

61 D. Marc Kilgour and Frank C. Zagare, “Uncertainty and Deterrence” (Paper delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, August 31-September 3, 1989).

62 Intriligator, Michael D. and Brito, Dagobert L., “Nuclear Proliferation and the Probability of Nuclear War,” Public Choice 37, No. 2 (1984), 247–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mueller, John, Retreat From Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War (New York: Basic Books, 1989)Google Scholar.