Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
Drawing on historical and rational choice institutionalism, this article seeks to explain the evolution of the Workers' Party as it moved from opposition to government between 1989 and 2002. The Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), a once radical and programmatic party, came to look more like its catchall competitors over time. This shift resulted from the heightened emphasis placed on immediate vote maximization after Brazil's adoption of market reforms rendered the party's socialist project unviable. Vote maximization made the PT more susceptible to the institutional incentives for building electoral and political support in Brazil, incentives that induce parties to weaken their programmatic positions, forge opportunistic alliances, and resort to patronage and even corruption. To grow, the PT ended up applying such tactics, which it had long condemned. Yet its adaptation was incomplete and uneven due to historical legacies that hindered change. The analysis thus suggests that institutions evolve in response to changing environmental conditions but in ways constrained by past trajectories.
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29 Much of the information in this paragraph was gleaned from an interview with Luiz Gushiken, former party president (1988–90) and close adviser to Lula until 2006. Author interview, Luiz Gu-shiken, Brasilia, August 14,2006.
30 Plinio de Arruda Sampaio, “Sucessão Presidential-Depende Da Gente,” Teoria e Debate 6 (April/May/June 1989).
31 Yan de Souza Carreirāo and Maria D'Alva G. Kinzo, “Partidos Politicos, Preferência Partidária E Decisāo Eleitoral No Brasil (1989/2002),” Dados 47, no. 1 (2004), 141.
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33 Many of the insights in this paragraph come from an interview with a long established PT member and close associate of Lula. Author interview with Paulo Vannuchi, Brasilia, August 17, 2006.
34 Author interview with PT senator Ana Julia Carepa, Brasilia, August 14, 2003.
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37 Compatible with this institutional arrangement is the fact that PT politicians with more radical views are to the present day more likely to be found in the Chamber than in positions requiring an electoral majority (namely, the presidency, mayorships of cities with more than two hundred thousand registered voters, and senatorial and gubernatorial positions).
38 IBOPE poll, no. 339, February 1994.
39 Catholics in organized base communities showed nearly universal support for Lula in the 1994 presidential election. Unorganized Catholics showed an average propensity to vote for Lula in that election. See Flávio Pierucci, Antônio and , Reginaldo Prandi, “Religóes E Voto: A Eleiçāo Presidencial De 1994,” Opiniāo Pública 3 (May 1995Google Scholar).
40 DATAKOLHA poll, no. 00730, August 1997.
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44 Carreirāo (fn. 42), 130.
45 Guillermo Rosas and Elizabeth Zechmeister, “Ideological Dimensions and Left-Right Semantics in Latin America” (Paper presented at the Latin American Studies Association Congress, Miami, Fla., March 16–18, 2000).
46 “Em busca do bilion´rio liberal,” Veja on-line, February 27, 2002.
47 do Amaral, Oswaldo E., A Estrela nāo é Mais Vermelha: as Mudanças do Programa Petista nosAnos 90 [The Star Is No Longer Red: Programmatic Changes in the Workers' Party in the 1990s] (São Paulo:Editora Garçoni, 2003Google Scholar).
48 Baker, Andy, Consuming the Washington Consensus: Mass Responses to the Market in Latin America (Cambridge:Cambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar, forthcoming).
49 Ibid.; Celso Lafer and Fernando Kasinski Lottenberg, “Nacionalismo E Reestructuração Da Economia,” in Lamoumer, Bolívar, ed., Ouvmdo o Brasil: uma Anáhse da Opiniāo Pública Brastleira Hoje [Listening to Brazil: An Analysis of Contemporary Brazilian Public Opinion] (Sāo Paulo:Editora Sumaré, 1992), 72–73Google Scholar; Maílson da Nóbrega, “Presença do Estado na Economia e na Sociedade,” also in Lamounier, 33–34.
50 Baker (fn. 48).
51 For a discussion of improvements in the Brazilian economy, especially the sustained control of inflation and its resonance with the Brazilian public, see Leslie Elliott Armijo, Philippe Faucher, and Magdalena Dembinska, “Compared to What? Assessing Brazil's Political Institutions,” Comparative Political Studies 39 (August 2006).
52 Many indicators suggested growing state institutionalization. Key among them was lower ministerial turnover. Notably, whereas Brazil had thirteen finance ministers between 1985 and 1994, Cardoso had the same minister of finance (Pedro Malan) during his entire tenure in office (1995–2002). Also, electoral volatility diminished considerably over the 1990s and political competition became more structured. See Panizza, Francisco, “Is Brazil Becoming a Boring Country?” Bulletin of Latin American Research 19 (October 2000), 515Google Scholar.
53 Interview with Gushiken (fn. 29).
54 Singer, André, “Collor Na Periferia: A Volta Por Cima Do Populismo?” in Lamounier, Bolivar, ed., De Geisela Collor: O Balanço da Transiçāo [From Geisel to Collor: Assessing the Transition] (Sāo Paulo:Sumaré, 1990Google Scholar).
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59 Interviews with two key actors from opposing sides of the moderate/radical divide confirmed the use of such arguments at these debates. Author interview withJose Genoino, several-time national deputy and party president (2002–5), São Paulo, August 7, 2006; and author interview with Valter Pomar, Sao Paulo, August 3, 2006. Genoino was an outspoken advocate of electoral pragmatism. Party militant Valter Pomar led the resistance to this trend. See also “Baixos Teores de Radicalismo,” IstoÉ (November 2, 1994), 30–31.
60 José Genoino (fn. 59) and Paulo Vannuchi (fn. 33) stressed in author interviews the difficulty of gaining internal acceptance of the view that the PT should reorient its strategy around the premise that most poor people cared less about the PT'S ideological vision and more about the personal appeal of Lula and any immediate benefits they could receive from him as president. Their instincts received strong confirmation in the groundswell of support that Lula received in his 2006 bid for reelection from recipients of the Bolsa Família, a minimal income transfer program provided to the poorest Brazilians.
61 Jorge Almeida, “Esquerda, Pesquisas e Marketing Politico,” Teoria e Debate 34 (March/April/ May 1997); Luiz Dulci, “Por Uma Nova Estratégia,” Teoria e Debate 34 (March/April/May 1997).
62 Schickler (fn. 17);Thelen (fn. 17,2003).
63 See “PT reelege José Dirceu e abre para alianças,” Gazeta Mercantile September 1, 1997, A-8; and “Partido começa a discutir alianças,” Jornal do Brasil, September 13, 1999, 2-A.
64 At least 15 percent of all Brazilian voters identify as evangelicals. Evangelical Protestantism is expanding rapidly among the working class.
65 The perceived importance of Minas Gerais was one reason the PT also cultivated the support of PMDB governor, Itamar Franco. “PT nao vence sem Itamar, afirma Dirceu,” Folha de Sāo Paulo, May 20, 2000, A-6.
66 “Em busca do bilionário liberal,” Veja on-line, February 27, 2002.
67 Author interview with Gustavo Venturi, Sāo Paulo, August 9,2006.
68 Almeida (fn. 61), 12–15.
69 IBOPE poll, no. 00198, October 1989.
70 IBOPE poll, no. 00339, Februaryl994.
71 IBOPE poll, no. 01259, September 1998.
72 DATAPOIX, February 2002; DATAFOLHA, September 2002.
73 Almeida (fn. 35), 215.
74 IBOPE poll, no. 1811, November 2002, question 28.
75 Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro, Centro de Estudos de Opiniāo Pública (CESOP) (Campinas:University of Campinas, 2002Google Scholar).
76 Space constraints preclude a presentation of evidence to this effect. A binomial logit analysis suggests that anticlientelistic sentiments and reservations about some aspects of market reform were important predictors of voting for Lula in the first and second rounds of the 2002 presidential contest. See Wendy Hunter, “Growth and Transformation of the Workers' Party in Brazil, 1989–2002,” Working Paper no. 326 (The Helen Kellogg Institute of International Studies, University of Notre Dame, August 2006), 20–21.
77 Kirchheimer (fn. 1), 192.
78 Samuels, David, “Money, Elections, and Democracy in Brazil,” Latin American Politics and Society 43 (Summer 2001CrossRefGoogle Scholar).
79 Whereas Cardoso's declared contributions in the 1994 campaign were $41,366,843, Lula's were $1,741,401. The numbers for 1998 were $37,088,337 and $1,933,129, respectively; Samuels (fn. 78), 31. In 1994 PT candidates (for various offices) each raised only about 10 percent of the amount from business that candidates from nonleftist parties raised. They did only slightly better in 1998 (p. 39).
80 Vannuchi (fn. 33) confirmed the left-wing's reservations about the party developing closer relations with big business.
81 “How a Murder Is Reviving Brazil's Furor over Corruption,” Financial Times, March 28, 2006.
82 Roma (fn. 27).
83 Souza (fn. 27).
84 Hagopian (fn. 27); Leal (fn. 27).
85 Payne, Zovatto, and Diaz (fn. 25), 154.
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91 Hall and Taylor (fn. 2); Katznelson and Weingast (fn. 2); Thelen (fn. 2).
92 Hall and Taylor (fn. 2), 955.
93 Ibid.
94 Katznelson and Weingast (fn. 2).
95 Keck (fn. 4), 19.