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International Bargaining and Domestic Politics: U.S.-China Relations since 1972

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Robert S. Ross
Robert S. Ross
Affiliation:
Columbia University
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Abstract

The concepts of triangular structure and pattern of relations are useful in understanding conflict in U.S.-China relations, particularly over Taiwan, and in explaining the context in which Chinese domestic politics influences the P.R.C.'s policy toward the United States. Through their influence on relative bargaining strengths, shifting patterns of relations have determined Beijing's readiness either to push for change in U.S.-Taiwan relations or to accept the status quo until China's bargaining position improves. The pace of policy change within a particular pattern of relations has been influenced by the P.R.C.'s domestic politics, which has also compelled the leaders to protect their domestic position by issuing statements aimed at the domestic audience.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 38 , Issue 2 , January 1986 , pp. 255 - 287
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1986

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References

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33 Jen Ku-ping, “The Munich Tragedy and Contemporary Appeasement, RMRB, November 26, 1977, in Peking Review, Vol. 20, No. 50 (December 9, 1977). Also see, for example, The Theory of the Three Worlds (fn. 25), 47-48.

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40 Sutter (fn. 2), 24-25.

41 Hua's statement is in Documents of the First Session ... (fn. 26), 111-12.

42 Sutter (fn. 2), 21, 24-25, 46; Barnett (fn. 39), 384, n. 144.

43 The ambassador was Leonard Unger. On this and other aspects of U.S.-Taiwan relations, see Barnett (fn. 39), 205-07, 223-25, 383, 11. 142.

44 Vance (fn. 2), 79-83.

45 Kissinger (fn. 2, 1982), 47; Sutter (fn. 22), 115-16; Ford (fn. 2), 336-37; FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, October 27, 1977, pp. 1-4, and November 30, 1977, pp. 8-10; Xinhua, May 20, 1978, FBIS/DR, May 22, 1978, pp. A2-3. On the Carter period, see the discussion of Brzezinski's May 1978 visit to China, in FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, May 24, 1978, pp. 1-2.

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49 See Sutter (fn. 2), 35; Lieberthal (fn. 2), 112-13; Barnett (fn. 39), 205.

50 Ng-Quinn (fn. 2), 212-15, overstates the case, I believe, when he argues that debates over Chinese foreign policy remained merely debates, solely reflecting attempts to secure domestic political support, and never influencing foreign policy outputs.

51 Kissinger (fn. 2, 1982), 679-81, 684.

52 , Oksenberg, “The Dynamics of the Sino-American Relationship,” in Solomon, Richard, The China Factor (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1981), 72–73Google Scholar.

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54 See, for example, the statement of the Central Committee of the CCP, the Standing Committee of the National Peoples' Congress, the State Council, and the Military Commission of the CCP, Xinhua, November 2, 1976, FBIS/DR, November 2, 1976, pp. A1-2; Chiao Guanhua's speech to the U.N. General Assembly, Xinhua, October 5, 1976, FBIS/PRC, October 6, 1976, pp. A1-6; Agence France Presse, November 1, 1976, FBIS/DR, November 2, 1976, pp. A2-3. Also see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, September 22, 1976, p. 7; October 6, 1976, pp. 10-11; November 3, 1976, pp. 6-7; November 17, 1976, p. 7.

55 Mills (fn. 47), 76-77, 82-85, 132-33.

56 Haig (fn. 1), 201-02.

57 On Carter's changing Soviet policy, see Brzezinski (fn. 2).

58 Ibid., 203-04; Vance (fn. 2), 116.

59 Sutler (fn. 2), 83-84.

60 Oksenberg (fn. 53), 191. On Brown's visit, see Sutter (fn. 2), 86.

61 Qing, Zeng, “Meiguo dui Su zhanlue de dongxiang” [The trend in U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union], Shijie Zhishi, No. 6 (March 16, 1979), 5Google Scholar. Unless otherwise noted, translations are by the present author.

62 Qubing, Zhuang, “Meiguo dui Meisu junshi liliang duibi de jizhong kanfa” [Various U.S. views of the U.S.-Soviet balance of military strength], Shijie Zhishi, No. 2 (January 16, 1979), 14–15Google Scholar. Also see, for example, Xiong, Chen and Mei, Yao, “‘Lianggeban zhangzheng’ yu ‘yigeban zhanzheng’” [Two-and-a-half war and one-and-a-half war], Shijie Zhishi, No. 23 (December 1, 1979), 3–5Google Scholar; Fang Zhidan, “Illusion and Reality,” RMRB, May 14, 1979, FBIS/DR, May 24, 1979, pp. A1-4; Bu Qing, “Contention in the Persian Gulf,” RMRB, August 7, 1979, FBIS/DR, August 15, 1979, pp. A1-2.

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69 See William Hyland, “The Sino-Soviet Conflict: Dilemmas of the Strategic Triangle,” in Solomon (fn. 52), 141-45: Kyodo News Service, October 18, 1979, FBIS/PRC, October 18, 1979, p. C1.

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75 See Vance (fn. 2), 117; Brzezinski (fn. 2), 231.

76 Commentary, “Do No Harm to Sino-U.S. Relations,” Xinhua, June 20, 1980, FBIS/DR, June 23, 1980, pp. B2-3. Also see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, June 25, 1980, pp. 7-8. For a later indirect threat of greater conflict with the U.S., see the pro-P.R.C. Hong Kong newspaper Wen Wei Po, October 22, 1980, FBIS/DR, October 27, 1980, pp. U1-2.

77 On the protest note, see Xinhua, October 15, 1980, FBIS/PRC, October 16, 1980, p. B1; Agence France Presse, October 11, 1980, FBIS/DR, October 14, 1980, p. B1. The Commentator article cited is “An Inadvisable Move” RMRB, October 9, 1980, FBIS/DR, October 9, 1980, pp. B1-2. Shijie Zhishi issued a similar warning; see Wen Fu, “Sunhai Zhongmei guanxi de Meiguo ‘yu Taiwan guanxifa’ “[The United States “Taiwan Relations Act,” which harms U.S.-China relations], Shijie Zhishi, No. 21 (November 1, 1980), 14-15. For additional information, see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, October 16, 1980, pp. 1-3.

78 Zhou Lifang and Zhou Cipu, “George Bush's Difficult Mission,” Xinhua, August 23, 1980, and RMRB, August 24, 1980, FBIS/DR, August 25, 1980, pp. B2-3.

79 Benkan Pinglunyuan [RMRB Commentator], “Ligen xiang ba Zhongmei guanxi yin-xiang nali?” [Where does Reagan intend to lead Sino-U.S. relations?], RMRB, August 28, 1980.

80 Also see Pollack (fn. 66), 67-68.

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85 Yuan Xianlu, “A New Round of Struggle,” RMRB, September 27, 1981, FBIS/DR, September 28, 1981, pp. B1-2.

86 Fang Min, “On the Eve of the U.S.-Soviet Nuclear Talks,” RMRB, November 30, 1981, FBIS/DR, November 30, 1981, pp. A1-2.

87 Lu Shipu, “A New Round of the Arms Race Between the Soviet Union and the United States,” RMRB, June 2, 1982, FBIS/DR, June 3, 1982, pp. A1-3. Also see Chen Weibin, “A Prolonged and Fruitless Process,” Xinhua, January 12, 1982, FBIS/DR, January 13, 1982, p. A1; Fang Min, “Reasons for Reagan's Disarmament Statement and His Stand,” RMRB, April 7, 1982, FBIS/DR, April 8, 1982, pp. B1-3; Fang Min, Special Commentary, “U.S. Dual Tactics Toward the Soviet Union,” RMRB, June 29, 1982, FBIS/DR, June 29, 1982, PP. B1-3.

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90 See Barnett (fn. 74), 29; Zagoria, Donald, “The Moscow-Beijing Detente,” Foreign Affairs 61 (Spring 1983), 853-73CrossRefGoogle Scholar, at 856. Also see Barnett (fn. 88), 92-93.

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92 Qubing, Zhuang, Hongzeng, Zhang, and Tongwen, Pan, “Ping Meiguo de ‘yu Taiwan guanxi fa'” [Criticize the U.S. ‘Taiwan Relations Act'], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu, No. 1 (July 1981), 21–27Google Scholar, at 25.

93 Ibid., 26. Also see Commentary, “A Key Link in the Development of Sino-U.S. Relations,” Xinhua, June 18, 1981, FBIS/DR, June 19, 1981, pp. B1-2.

94 Guoji Wenti Yanjiu (fn. 92), 26.

95 Haig (fn. 1), 204-05, 206-07; Barnett (fn. 74), 29. On China's response to U.S. policy of evenhanded arms sales, also see, for example, Xiu, Hua, “China Won't Accept U.S. ‘Balanced Arms Sales,’” Beijing Review, Vol. 24 (June 22, 1981), 11–12Google Scholar.

96 See Deng's statement in Pollack (fn. 66), 89. For additional Chinese warnings, see Haig (fn. 1), 208.

97 Haig (fn. 1), 209-10.

98 Special Commentator, “Zhongmei guanxi de zhengjie hezai?” [Where lies the crux of Sino-American relations?], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu, No. 2 (April 1982), 6–7Google Scholar.

99 Haig (fn. 1), 211-15. This has been confirmed in discussion with former Reagan administration officials. Also see Garrett, Banning, “China Policy and the Constraints of Triangular Logic,” in Oye, Kenneth A., Lieber, Robert J., and Rothchild, Donald, eds., Eagle Defiant: United States Foreign Policy in the 1980s (Boston: Little, Brown, 1983), 237-71Google Scholar.

100 See Lieberthal, Kenneth, “Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy,” in Harding, Harry, ed., China's Foreign Relations in the 1980s (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1984), 55–66Google Scholar; Hamrin (fn. 1); Barnett (fn. 74). Also see FBIS, Trends in Communist Media, August 6, 1980, PP. 3-5.

101 Cited in Lieberthal (fn. 100), 65.

102 Hamrin (fn. 1); Lieberthal (fn. 100), 55-66.

103 Hamrin (fn. 1); Lieberthal (fn. 100); and Barnett (fn. 74).

104 Indeed, in his January 1980 speech placing reunification on the agenda for the 1980s, Deng suggested that combatting hegemonism was of greater importance; see Deng Xiaoping Wenxuan (fn. 72), 203-04. Also see Mills (fn. 47), 251; Barnett, A. Doak, U.S. Arms Sales: The China-Taiwan Tangle (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1982)Google Scholar. For Deng's remarks on U.S.-China relations, see “Deng fuzongli tong Meiguo guangbo dianshijie de tanpan” [Vice Premier Deng's talk with people in U.S. television circles], Shijie Zhishi, No. 5 (March 1, 1979), 1–4Google Scholar.

105 Pollack (fn. 66), 89.

106 Hamrin (fn. 1), 226-27.

107 See, for example, Barnett (fn. 74). For a critique of the argument that Reagan's policy errors can explain the deterioration of relations, see Steven I. Levine, “China and the United States: The Limits of Interaction,” in Kim (fn. 6), 123-25.

108 On U.S.-China relations, see Ibid., 118-31. For Sino-Soviet relations, see Chi Su, “China and the Soviet Union: ‘Principled, Salutary, and Tempered’ Management of Conflict,” in Kim (fn. 6), 136-41. China's third-world posture is discussed by Harry Harding, “China's Changing Roles in the Contemporary World,” in Harding (fn. 100), 195-201.

109 Also see Dittmer (fn. 1), 504-07.

110 For a harsh P.R.C. response to the shift in Reagan's Asia policy, see Jialin, Zhang, “The New Romanticism in the Reagan Administration's Asian Policy,” Asian Survey 10 (October 1984), 997–1011CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For P.R.C. analyses of U.S. assertiveness and confidence in world affairs, and its recent “ascendency over the Soviet Union,” see, for example, Junhui, Jin, “Reagan's Diplomacy: An Overview,” Beijing Review 28 (June 17, 1985), 21–25Google Scholar; Jirong, Zhou, Baoqin, Wang, and Guanfu, Gu, “Sumei zhengba taishi de bianhua yu qianjing” [Change and the prospect for the Soviet-U.S. struggle for hegemony], Xiandai Guoji Guanxi 6 (March 1984), 1–6Google Scholar; Su'an, Huang and Changjiu, Li, “Meiguo jingji liliang de huifu yu duiwai zhengce” [U.S. economic recovery and foreign policy], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu 3 (July 1985), 1–7Google Scholar.