Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T03:29:42.690Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Economic Risk within the Household and Voting for the Radical Right

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 June 2021

Tarik Abou-Chadi Open the ORCID record for Tarik Abou-Chadi [Opens in a new window]  and
Thomas Kurer
Get access

Abstract

This article investigates how unemployment risk within households affects voting for the radical right. The authors contribute to recent advances in the literature that have highlighted the role of economic threat for understanding the support of radical-right parties. In contrast to existing work, the authors do not treat voters as atomistic individuals; they instead investigate households as a crucial site of preference formation. Combining largescale labor market data with comparative survey data, they confirm the expectations of their theoretical framework by demonstrating that the effect of occupational unemployment risk on radical-right support is strongly conditioned by household-risk constellations. Voting for the radical right is a function not only of a voter’s own risk, but also of his or her partner’s risk. The article provides additional evidence on the extent to which these effects are gendered and on the mechanisms that link household risk and party choice. The results imply that much of the existing literature on individual risk exposure potentially underestimates its effect on political behavior due to the neglect of multiplier effects within households.

Keywords

economic riskelectoral competitionradical right
Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 73 , Issue 3 , July 2021 , pp. 482 - 511
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abou Chadi, Tarik, and Kurer, Thomas. 2021a. “Replication files for: Economic Risk within the Household and Voting for the Radical Right.” Harvard Dataverse, V1. At https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IVKRZY.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abou Chadi, Tarik, and Kurer, Thomas. 2021b. “Supplementary material for: Economic Risk within the Household and Voting for the Radical Right.” At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887121000046.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahlquist, John S., Hamman, John R., and Jones, Bradley M.. 2015. “Dependency Status and Demand for Social Insurance: Evidence from Experiments and Surveys.” Political Science Research and Methods 5, no. 1: 1–23. At https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.58.Google Scholar
Ai, Chunrong, and Norton, Edward C.. 2003. “Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models.” Economics Letters 80, no. 1: 123–29. At https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00032-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aytaç, Selim Erdem. 2017. “Relative Economic Performance and the Incumbent Vote: A Reference Point Theory.” Journal of Politics 80, no. 1: 16–29. At https://doi.org/10.1086/693908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 2020. “Estimating Grouped Data Models with a Binary-Dependent Variable and Fixed Effects via a Logit versus a Linear Probability Model: The Impact of Dropped Units.” Political Analysis 28, no. 1: 139–45. At https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary S. 1974. “A Theory of Social Interactions.” Journal of Political Economy 82, no. 6: 1063–93. At https://doi.org/10.1086/260265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary S. 1991. A Treatise on the Family, enl. ed. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Bonikowski, Bart. 2017. “Ethno-Nationalist Populism and the Mobilization of Collective Resentment.” British Journal of Sociology 68, supp. 1: S181–S213. At https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgoon, Brian, and Fabian, Dekker. 2010. “Flexible Employment, Economic Insecurity and Social Policy Preferences in Europe.” Journal of European Social Policy 20, no. 2: 126–41. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928709358789.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgoon, Brian, van Noort, Sam, Rooduijn, Matthijs, and Underhill, Geoffrey. 2019. “Positional Deprivation and Support for Radical Right and Radical Left Parties.” Economic Policy 34, no. 97: 49–93. At https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiy017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavaille, Charlotte, and Jeremy, Ferwerda. 2019. “How Distributional Conflict over In-Kind Benefits Generates Support for Anti-Immigrant Parties.” Manuscript. At https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/pegroup/files/cavailleferwerdand.pdf, accessed April 16, 2021.Google Scholar
Cohen, Denis. 2018. “Economic Risk, Anti-Immigration Preferences and Voting for the Radical Right.” Manuscript. At https://denis-cohen.github.io/research/eraipvrr, accessed March 30, 2021.Google Scholar
Colantone, Italo, and Piero, Stanig. 2018. “The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe.” American Journal of Political Science 62, no. 4: 936–53. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cusack, Thomas, Iversen, Torben, and Rehm, Philipp. 2006. “Risks at Work: The Demand and Supply Sides of Government Redistribution.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22, no. 3: 365-89. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/23606579.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daenekindt, Stijn, Willem, de Koster, and Waal, Jeroen van der. 2020. “Partner Politics: How Partners Are Relevant to Voting.” Journal of Marriage and Family 82, no. 3: 1124-34. At https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.12619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Graaf, Dirk, and Anthony, Heath. 1992. “Husbands’ and Wives’ Voting Behaviour in Britain: Class-Dependent Mutual Influence of Spouses.” Acta Sociologica 35, no. 4: 311–22. At https://doi.org/10.1177/000169939203500404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DiPrete, Thomas A., and Buchmann, Claudia. 2013. The Rise of Women: The Growing Gender Gap in Education and What It Means for American Schools. New York, N.Y.: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
DiPrete, Thomas A., and McManus, Patricia A.. 2000. “Family Change, Employment Transitions, and the Welfare State: Household Income Dynamics in the United States and Germany.” American Sociological Review 65, no. 3: 343–70. At https://doi.org/10.2307/2657461.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert. 1984. “Social Class of Men, Women and Families.” Sociology 18, no. 4: 500–14. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038584018004003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finseraas, Henning, Jakobsson, Niklas, and Kotsadam, Andreas. 2012. “The Gender Gap in Political Preferences: An Empirical Test of a Political Economy Explanation.” Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society 19, no. 2: 219-42. At https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxs005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Foos, Florian, and de Rooij, Eline A.. 2017. “All in the Family: Partisan Disagreement and Electoral Mobilization in Intimate Networks—A Spillover Experiment.” American Journal of Political Science 61, no. 2: 289–304. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gest, Justin , Tyler Reny, , Jeremy Mayer, . 2017. “Roots of the Radical Right: Nostalgic Deprivation in the United States and Britain.” Comparative Political Studies 51, no. 13: 1694–1719. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017720705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gidron, Noam, and Hall, Peter A.. 2017. “The Politics of Social Status: Economic and Cultural Roots of the Populist Right.” British Journal of Sociology 68, S1: S57–S84. At https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.12319.Google ScholarPubMed
Häusermann, Silja. 2020. “Dualization and Electoral Realignment.” Political Science Research and Methods 8, no. 2: 380–85. At https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.48 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Häusermann, Silja, Kemmerling, Achim, and Rueda, David. 2020. “How Labor Market Inequality Transforms Mass Politics.” Political Science Research and Methods 8, no. 2: 344-55. At https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Häusermann, Silja, Kurer, Thomas, and Schwander, Hanna. 2015. “High-Skilled Outsiders? Labor Market Vulnerability, Education and Welfare State Preferences.” Socio-Economic Review 13, no. 2: 235-58. At https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwu026.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Häusermann, Silja, Kurer, Thomas, and Schwander, Hanna. 2016. “Sharing the Risk? Households, Labor Market Vulnerability, and Social Policy Preferences in Western Europe.” Journal of Politics 78, no. 4: 1045-60. At https://doi.org/10.1086/686972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Incantalupo, Matthew B. 2011. “The Effects of Unemployment on Voter Turnout in US National Elections.” Manuscript. At https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mincanta/files/incantalupo_turnout_0.pdf, accessed April 16, 2021.Google Scholar
Ivarsflaten, Elisabeth. 2007. “What Unites Right-Wing Populists in Western Europe? Re-Examining Grievance Mobilization Models in Seven Successful Cases.” Comparative Political Studies 41, no. 1: 3–23. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414006294168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iversen, Torben, and Frances, Rosenbluth. 2006. “The Political Economy of Gender: Explaining Cross-National Variation in the Gender Division of Labor and the Gender Voting Gap.” American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 1: 1–19. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00166.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iversen, Torben, and David, Soskice. 2001. “An Asset Theory of Social Policy Preferences.” American Political Science Review 95, no. 4: 875–94. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055400400079.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jahoda, Marie. 1979. “Impact of Unemployment in the 1930s and the 1970s.” Bulletin of the British Psychological Society 32, August: 309–14.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos, Tversky. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47 no. 2: 263–92. At https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalmijn, Matthijs. 1991. “Status Homogamy in the United States.” American Journal of Sociology 97, no. 2: 496–523. At https://doi.org/10.1086/229786.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kan, Man Yee, and Anthony, Heath. 2006. “The Political Values and Choices of Husbands and Wives.” Journal of Marriage and Family 68, no. 1: 70–86. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2006.00234.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2014. “The Populist Challenge.” West European Politics 37, no. 2: 361–78. At https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2014.887879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurer, Thomas. 2020. “The Declining Middle: Occupational Change, Social Status, and the Populist Right.” Comparative Political Studies 53, no. 10-11: 1798–1835. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414020912283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurer, Thomas, Häusermann, Silja, Wüest, Bruno, and Enggist, Matthias. 2019. “Economic Grievances and Political Protest.” European Journal of Political Research 58, no. 3: 866-92. At https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lamont, Michèle. 2018. “Addressing Recognition Gaps: Destigmatization and the Reduction of Inequality.” American Sociological Review 83, no. 3: 419–44. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122418773775.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lefkofridi, Zoe, and Elie, Michel. 2014. “Exclusive Solidarity? Radical Right Parties and the Welfare State.” EUI RSCAS Working Paper no. 2014/120. Florence, Italy: European University Institute, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies. At https://cadmus.eui.eu//handle/1814/33877, accessed April 16, 2021.Google Scholar
Lundberg, Shelly, and Pollak, Robert A.. 1996. “Bargaining and Distribution in Marriage.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, no. 4: 139–58. At https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.4.139.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magni, Gabriele. 2017. “It’s the Emotions, Stupid! Anger about the Economic Crisis, Low Political Efficacy, and Support for Populist Parties.” Electoral Studies 50, December: 91–102. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2019a. “Political Responses to Economic Shocks.” Annual Review of Political Science 22: 277–95. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050517-110713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2019b. “Economic Insecurity and the Causes of Populism, Reconsidered.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 4: 152–70. At https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moene, Karle Ove, and Michael, Wallerstein. 2001. “Inequality, Social Insurance, and Redistribution.” American Political Science Review 95, no. 4: 859–74. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/3117718.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 2007. Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mughan, Anthony, Bean, Clive, and McAllister, Ian. 2003. “Economic Globalization, Job Insecurity and the Populist Reaction.” Electoral Studies 22, no. 4: 617-33. At https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00047-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 2018. “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. At https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718155115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2005. Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oesch, Daniel. 2006. Redrawing the Class Map: Stratification and Institutions in Britain, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pardos-Prado, Sergi, and Carla, Xena. 2019. “Skill Specificity and Attitudes toward Immigration.” American Journal of Political Science 63, no. 2: 286–304. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pleck, Joseph H. 1977. “The Work-Family Role System.” Social Problems 24, no. 4: 417–27. At https://doi.org/10.2307/800135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rehm, Philipp. 2009. “Risks and Redistribution: An Individual-Level Analysis.” Comparative Political Studies 42, no. 7: 855–81. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414008330595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rehm, Philipp. 2016. Risk Inequality and Welfare States: Social Policy Preferences, Development, and Dynamics. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rico, Guillem , Marc Guinjoan, Anduiza, Eva. 2017. “The Emotional Underpinnings of Populism: How Anger and Fear Affect Populist Attitudes.” Swiss Political Science Review 23, no. 4: 444-61. At https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12261.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrik, Dani. 2018. “Populism and the Economics of Globalization.” Journal of International Business Policy 1, no. 1-2: 12–33. At https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-018-0001-4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rooduijn, Matthijs, and Brian, Burgoon. 2018. “The Paradox of Well-Being: Do Unfavorable Socioeconomic and Sociocultural Contexts Deepen or Dampen Radical Left and Right Voting among the Less Well-Off?” Comparative Political Studies 51, no. 13: 1720–53. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017720707.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rovny, Jan, and Allison, Rovny. 2017. “Outsiders at the Ballot Box: Operationalizations and Political Consequences of the Insider-Outsider Dualism.” Socio-Economic Review 15, no. 1: 161–85. At https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mww039.Google Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth, and Slaughter, Matthew J.. 2004. “Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production.” American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 4: 662–74. At https://doi.org/10.2307/1519926.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shelton, Beth Anne, and Daphne, John. 1996. “The Division of Household Labor.” Annual Review of Sociology 22: 299–322. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.22.1.299.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steenvoorden, Eefje, and Eelco, Harteveld. 2018. “The Appeal of Nostalgia: The Influence of Societal Pessimism on Support for Populist Radical Right Parties.” West European Politics 41, no. 1: 28–52. At https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2017.1334138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strøm, Marte. 2014. “How Husbands and Wives Vote.” Electoral Studies 35, September: 215–29. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.01.006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel, Kahneman. 1991. “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, no. 4: 1039–61. At https://doi.org/10.2307/2937956.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Western, Bruce, Bloome, Deirdre, Sosnaud, Benjamin, and Tach, Laura. 2012. “Economic Insecurity and Social Stratification.” Annual Review of Sociology 38: 341-59. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071811-145434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zuckerman, Alan S. 2005. The Social Logic of Politics: Personal Networks as Contexts for Political Behavior. Philadelphia, Pa.: Temple University Press.Google Scholar
Zuckerman, Alan S., and Kotler-Berkowitz, Laurence A.. 1998. “Politics and Society: Political Diversity and Uniformity in Households as a Theoretical Puzzle.” Comparative Political Studies 31, no. 4: 464–97. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414098031004004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Abou-Chadi and Kurer Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IVKRZY
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Abou-Chadi and Kurer supplementary material

Tables A1-A11

Download Abou-Chadi and Kurer supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 450.4 KB