Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jkksz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T02:27:07.989Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Using National Surveys to Measure Dynamic U.S. State Public Opinion: A Guideline for Scholars and an Application

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Julianna Pacheco
Julianna Pacheco*
Affiliation:
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA
*
Julianna Pacheco, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 3650 SPH Tower, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48103 Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The author improves on the measurement of U.S. state public opinion by (1) applying previous methods used only on cross-sectional data to create dynamic measures of state public opinion and (2) providing a systematic comparison of the performance of the various methodological approaches on these dynamic measures. The author shows that scholars can use multilevel regression, imputation, and poststratification (MRP) coupled with a simple moving average to measure state public opinion over time. Compared to aggregation, the MRP approach has less error and is more reliable, particularly for the less populated states. The author shows the applicability of the MRP approach by measuring and validating state partisanship and state ideology over time. The validated measures are available for public use. Armed with a method to measure state public opinion over time, scholars can begin to more fully understand the dynamic relationship between public opinion and policy in the U.S. states.

Keywords

dynamic state opinionmeasuring state opinionstate ideologystate partisanshipmultilevel regression and poststratification
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 11 , Issue 4 , December 2011 , pp. 415 - 439
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arceneaux, Kevin. 2002. “Direct Democracy and the Link between Public Opinion and State Abortion Policy.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2:372–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, William, Ringquist, Evan, Fording, Richard, and Hanson, Russell. 1998. “Measuring Citizen and Government Ideology in the American States, 1960–93.” American Journal of Political Science 42:327–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, William, Ringquist, Evan, Fording, Richard, and Hanson, Russell. 2007. “The Measurement and Stability of State Citizen Ideology.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7:111–32.Google Scholar
Boehmke, Frederick J., and Witmer, Richard. 2004. “Disentangling Diffusion: The Effects of Social Learning and Economic Competition on State Policy Innovation and Expansion.” Political Research Quarterly 57:39–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul, Arceneaux, Kevin, Johnson, Martin, and Ulbig, Stacy G.. 2004. “Does State Political Ideology Change over Time?” Political Research Quarterly 57:529–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul, Arceneaux, Kevin, Johnson, Martin, and Ulbig, Stacy G.. 2007. “Reply to: ‘The Measurement and Stability of State Citizen Ideology.‘” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7:133–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul, Butler, Kellie Sims, Arceneaux, Kevin, and Johnson, Martin. 2002. “Public Opinion in the American States: New Perspectives Using National Survey Data.” American Journal of Political Science 46:173–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brace, Paul, and Jewett, Aubrey. 1995. “The State of State Politics Research.” Political Research Quarterly 48:643–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burstein, Paul. 2003. “The Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy: A Review and an Agenda.” Political Research Quarterly 56:29–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Tom, and Harden, Jeffrey J.. 2010. “New Measures of Partisanship, Ideology, and Policy Mood in the American States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 10:136–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E. 2006. “Conclusions: Where We Have Been, Where We Should Go.” In Public Opinion in State Politics, ed. Cohen, Jeffrey. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 254–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E., and Barrilleaux, Charles. 1993. “Public Opinion, Interest Groups, and Public Policy Making Abortion Policy in the American States.” In Understanding the New Politics of Abortion, ed. Goggin, Malcolm L.. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 203–21.Google Scholar
Dye, Thomas R. 1969. “Income Inequality and American State Politics.” American Political Science Review 63:157–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, Christopher, and Stimson, James. 2007. “On Conservatism in America.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 2006. “Public Opinion in the States: A Quarter Century of Change and Stability.” In Public Opinion in State Politics, ed. Cohen, Jeffrey E.. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 229–53.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 2007. “Measuring the Public's Ideological Preferences in the 50 States: Survey Responses versus Roll Call Data.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7:141–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew. 2003. “Bugs.R: Functions for Calling Bugs from R.” http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/bugsR.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Hill, Jennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Little, Thomas C.. 1997. “Poststratification into Many Categories Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression.” Survey Methodology 23:127–35.Google Scholar
Groves, Robert M., Fowler, Floyd J. Jr., Couper, Mick P., Lepkowski, James M., Singer, Eleanor, and Tourangeau, Roger. 2004. Survey Methodology. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Haider-Markel, Donald P., and Kaufman, Matthew S.. 2006. “Public Opinion and Policy Making in the Culture Wars: Is There a Connection between Opinion and State Policy on Gay and Lesbian Issues?” In Public Opinion in State Politics, ed. Cohen, Jeffrey E.. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 163–82.Google Scholar
Hofferbert, Richard I. 1966. “The Relation between Public Policy and Some Structural and Environmental Variables in the American States.” American Political Science Review 60:73–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Martin, Brace, Paul, and Arceneaux, Kevin. 2005. “Public Opinion and Dynamic Representation in the American States: The Case of Environmental Attitude.” Social Science Quarterly 86:87–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. Jr. 1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009. “How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States?” American Journal of Political Science 53:107–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mooney, Christopher Z., and Lee, Mei-Hsien. 1995. “Legislative Morality in the American States: The Case of Pre-Roe Abortion Regulation Reform.” American Journal of Political Science 39:599–627.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 2000. “The Multi-Layered Impact of Public Opinion on Capital Punishment Implementation in the American States.” Political Research Quarterly 53:771–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara. 2001. “Measuring State Public Opinion with the Senate National Election Study.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 1:111–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norrander, Barbara, and Wilcox, Clyde. 1999. “Public Opinion and Policymaking in the States: The Case of Post-Roe Abortion Policy.” Policy Studies Journal 27:707–22.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, and Bafumi, Joseph. 2004. “Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State Level Estimates from National Polls.” Political Analysis 12:375–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, and Bafumi, Joseph. 2006. “State-Level Opinions from National Surveys: Poststratification Using Multilevel Logistic Regression.” In Public Opinion in State Politics, ed. Cohen, Jeffrey E.. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 209–28.Google Scholar
R Development Core Team. 2003. “R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.” http://www.R-project.org.Google Scholar
Ruggles, Steven, Sobek, Matthew, Alexander, Trent, Fitch, Catherine A., Goeken, Ronald, Hall, Patricia Kelly, King, Miriam, and Ronnander, Chad. 2008. “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 4.0” [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: Minnesota Population Center.Google Scholar
Spiegelhalter, David, Thomas, Andrew, and Best, Nicky. 1999. “WinBugs Version 1.4.” Cambridge, UK: MRC Biostatistics Unit.Google Scholar
Weber, Ronald E., Hopkins, Anne H., Mezey, Michael L., and Munger, Frank J.. 1972. “Computer Simulation of State Electorates.” Public Opinion Quarterly 36:549–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar