Use of intensive longitudinal methods (e.g. ecological momentary assessment, passive sensing) and machine learning (ML) models to predict risk for depression and suicide has increased in recent years. However, these studies often vary considerably in length, ML methods used, and sources of data. The present study examined predictive accuracy for depression and suicidal ideation (SI) as a function of time, comparing different combinations of ML methods and data sources.

Participants were 2459 first-year training physicians (55.1% female; 52.5% White) who were provided with Fitbit wearable devices and assessed daily for mood. Linear [elastic net regression (ENR)] and non-linear (random forest) ML algorithms were used to predict depression and SI at the first-quarter follow-up assessment, using two sets of variables (daily mood features only, daily mood features + passive-sensing features). To assess accuracy over time, models were estimated iteratively for each of the first 92 days of internship, using data available up to that point in time.

ENRs using only the daily mood features generally had the best accuracy for predicting mental health outcomes, and predictive accuracy within 1 standard error of the full 92 day models was attained by weeks 7–8. Depression at 92 days could be predicted accurately (area under the curve >0.70) after only 14 days of data collection.

Simpler ML methods may outperform more complex methods until passive-sensing features become better specified. For intensive longitudinal studies, there may be limited predictive value in collecting data for more than 2 months.

Older brain age – as estimated from structural MRI data – is known to be associated with detrimental mental and physical health outcomes in older adults. Social isolation, which has similar detrimental effects on health, may be associated with accelerated brain aging though little is known about how different trajectories of social isolation across the life course moderate this association. We examined the associations between social isolation trajectories from age 5 to age 38 and brain age assessed at age 45.

We previously created a typology of social isolation based on onset during the life course and persistence into adulthood, using group-based trajectory analysis of longitudinal data from a New Zealand birth cohort. The typology comprises four groups: ‘never-isolated’, ‘adult-only’, ‘child-only’, and persistent ‘child-adult’ isolation. A brain age gap estimate (brainAGE) – the difference between predicted age from structural MRI date and chronological age – was derived at age 45. We undertook analyses of brainAGE with trajectory group as the predictor, adjusting for sex, family socio-economic status, and a range of familial and child-behavioral factors.

Older brain age in mid-adulthood was associated with trajectories of social isolation after adjustment for family and child confounders, particularly for the ‘adult-only’ group compared to the ‘never-isolated’ group.

Although our findings are associational, they indicate that preventing social isolation, particularly in mid-adulthood, may help to avert accelerated brain aging associated with negative health outcomes later in life.

Childhood maltreatment (CM) represents a potent risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD), including poorer treatment response. Altered resting-state connectivity in the fronto-limbic system has been reported in maltreated individuals. However, previous results in smaller samples differ largely regarding localization and direction of effects.

We included healthy and depressed samples [n = 624 participants with MDD; n = 701 healthy control (HC) participants] that underwent resting-state functional MRI measurements and provided retrospective self-reports of maltreatment using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. A-priori defined regions of interest [ROI; amygdala, hippocampus, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC)] were used to calculate seed-to-voxel connectivities.

No significant associations between maltreatment and resting-state connectivity of any ROI were found across MDD and HC participants and no interaction effect with diagnosis became significant. Investigating MDD patients only yielded maltreatment-associated increased connectivity between the amygdala and dorsolateral frontal areas [pFDR < 0.001; η2partial = 0.050; 95%-CI (0.023–0.085)]. This effect was robust across various sensitivity analyses and was associated with concurrent and previous symptom severity. Particularly strong amygdala-frontal associations with maltreatment were observed in acutely depressed individuals [n = 264; pFDR < 0.001; η2partial = 0.091; 95%-CI (0.038–0.166)). Weaker evidence – not surviving correction for multiple ROI analyses – was found for altered supracallosal ACC connectivity in HC individuals associated with maltreatment.

The majority of previous resting-state connectivity correlates of CM could not be replicated in this large-scale study. The strongest evidence was found for clinically relevant maltreatment associations with altered adult amygdala-dorsolateral frontal connectivity in depression. Future studies should explore the relevance of this pathway for a maltreated subgroup of MDD patients.

Disorders involving compulsivity, fear, and anxiety are linked to beliefs that the world is less predictable. We lack a mechanistic explanation for how such beliefs arise. Here, we test a hypothesis that in people with compulsivity, fear, and anxiety, learning a probabilistic mapping between actions and environmental states is compromised.

In Study 1 (n = 174), we designed a novel online task that isolated state transition learning from other facets of learning and planning. To determine whether this impairment is due to learning that is too fast or too slow, we estimated state transition learning rates by fitting computational models to two independent datasets, which tested learning in environments in which state transitions were either stable (Study 2: n = 1413) or changing (Study 3: n = 192).

Study 1 established that individuals with higher levels of compulsivity are more likely to demonstrate an impairment in state transition learning. Preliminary evidence here linked this impairment to a common factor comprising compulsivity and fear. Studies 2 and 3 showed that compulsivity is associated with learning that is too fast when it should be slow (i.e. when state transition are stable) and too slow when it should be fast (i.e. when state transitions change).

Together, these findings indicate that compulsivity is associated with a dysregulation of state transition learning, wherein the rate of learning is not well adapted to the task environment. Thus, dysregulated state transition learning might provide a key target for therapeutic intervention in compulsivity.

Few studies have examined whether UK military veterans are at an increased risk of dementia. We explored the risk of dementia in Scottish military veterans aged up to 73 years in comparison with people who have never served.

Retrospective cohort study of 78 000 veterans and 253 000 people with no record of service, matched for age, sex and area of residence, with up to 37 years follow-up, using Cox proportional hazard analysis to compare risk of dementia in veterans and non-veterans, overall and by subgroup.

Dementia was recorded in 0.2% of both veterans and non-veterans overall, Cox proportional hazard ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.19, p = 0.879 (landmark age: 50 years), with no difference for men but increased risk in veteran women and Early Service Leavers. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was associated with a higher risk of dementia in both veterans and non-veterans, although possibly to a lesser degree in veterans. A history of mood disorder was strongly associated with developing dementia, greater in veterans than in non-veterans, odds ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.01–2.35, p = 0.045.

There was no evidence to suggest that military service increased the risk of dementia, although this may change as the cohort ages. The well-documented association with PTSD shows no evidence of being stronger in veterans; by contrast, the association of mood disorder with dementia is much stronger in veterans. Healthcare providers should carefully assess the cognitive status of older veterans presenting with depressive illness in order to identify early dementia and ensure optimum management.

The mental health impact of the initial years of military service is an under-researched area. This study is the first to explore mental health trajectories and associated predictors in military members across the first 3–4 years of their career to provide evidence to inform early interventions.

This prospective cohort study surveyed Australian Defence personnel (n = 5329) at four time-points across their early military career. Core outcomes were psychological distress (K10+) and posttraumatic stress symptoms [four-item PTSD Checklist (PCL-4)] with intra-individual, organizational and event-related trajectory predictors. Latent class growth analyses (LCGAs) identified subgroups within the sample that followed similar longitudinal trajectories for these outcomes, while conditional LCGAs examined the variables that influenced patterns of mental health.

Three clear trajectories emerged for psychological distress: resilient (84.0%), worsening (9.6%) and recovery (6.5%). Four trajectories emerged for post-traumatic stress, including resilient (82.5%), recovery (9.6%), worsening (5.8%) and chronic subthreshold (2.3%) trajectories. Across both outcomes, prior trauma exposure alongside modifiable factors, such as maladaptive coping styles, and increased anger and sleep difficulties were associated with the worsening and chronic subthreshold trajectories, whilst members in the resilient trajectories were more likely to be male, report increased social support from family/friends and Australian Defence Force (ADF) sources, and use adaptive coping styles.

The emergence of symptoms of mental health problems occurs early in the military lifecycle for a significant proportion of individuals. Modifiable factors associated with wellbeing identified in this study are ideal targets for intervention, and should be embedded and consolidated throughout the military career.

To explore whether emotional expressivity and the patterns of language use could predict benefits from expressive writing (EW) of breast cancer (BC) patients in a culture that strongly discourages emotional disclosure.

Data were obtained from a recent trial in which we compared the health outcomes between a prolonged EW group (12 sessions) and a standard EW group (four sessions) (n = 56 per group) of BC patients receiving chemotherapy. The Chinese texts were tokenized using the THU Lexical Analyser for Chinese. Then, LIWC2015 was used to quantify positive and negative affect word use.

Our first hypothesis that BC patients with higher levels of emotional expressivity tended to use higher levels of positive and negative affect words in texts was not supported (r = 0.067, p = 0.549 and r = 0.065, p = 0.559, respectively). The level of emotional expressivity has a significant effect on the quality of life (QOL), and those who used more positive or fewer negative affective words in texts had a better QOL (all p < 0.05). However, no significant difference was identified in physical and psychological well-being (all p > 0.05). Furthermore, the patterns of affective word use during EW did not mediate the effects of emotional expressivity on health outcomes (all p > 0.05).

Our findings suggest that the level of emotional expressivity and the pattern of affective word use could be factors that may moderate the effects of EW on QOL, which may help clinicians identify the individuals most likely to benefit from such writing exercises in China.

Motivational impairment associated with deficits in processing the anticipation of future reward is hypothesized to be a cardinal feature of schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SZ). Evidence from short-term follow-up (6-week post-treatment) studies suggests that these deficits may improve or be reversed with treatment, although longer-term outcomes are unknown. Here we examined the one-year trajectory of functional activation in brain circuitry associated with reward anticipation in people with recent onset SZ who participated in coordinated specialty care (CSC) treatment, hypothesizing normalization of brain response mirroring previous short-term findings in first-episode individuals.

Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula, and ventral striatum (VS) associated with reward anticipation during the Incentivized Control Engagement Task (ICE-T) was analyzed in a baseline sample of 49 healthy controls (HCs) and 52 demographically matched people with SZ, with follow-up data available for 35 HCs and 17 people with SZ.

In agreement with our hypothesis, significant time × diagnosis interactions were observed across all regions, in which reward anticipation-associated BOLD response increased in SZ to above baseline HC levels at follow-up. Increased VS activation was associated with decreased reality distortion symptoms over the follow-up period. Baseline reward anticipation-associated BOLD response in the right anterior insula was associated with improvement in reality distortion symptoms.

These findings suggest that functional deficits in reward anticipation may be reversed after one year of CSC in recent onset participants with SZ, and that this improvement is associated with reduced positive symptoms in the illness.

Consistent evidence supports the involvement of genetic and environmental factors, and their interactions, in the etiology of psychosis. First-episode psychosis (FEP) comprises a group of disorders that show great clinical and long-term outcome heterogeneity, and the extent to which genetic, familial and environmental factors account for predicting the long-term outcome in FEP patients remains scarcely known.

The SEGPEPs is an inception cohort study of 243 first-admission patients with FEP who were followed-up for a mean of 20.9 years. FEP patients were thoroughly evaluated by standardized instruments, with 164 patients providing DNA. Aggregate scores estimated in large populations for polygenic risk score (PRS-Sz), exposome risk score (ERS-Sz) and familial load score for schizophrenia (FLS-Sz) were ascertained. Long-term functioning was assessed by means of the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS). The relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) was used as a standard method to estimate the effect of interaction of risk factors.

Our results showed that a high FLS-Sz gave greater explanatory capacity for long-term outcome, followed by the ERS-Sz and then the PRS-Sz. The PRS-Sz did not discriminate significantly between recovered and non-recovered FEP patients in the long term. No significant interaction between the PRS-Sz, ERS-Sz or FLS-Sz regarding the long-term functioning of FEP patients was found.

Our results support an additive model of familial antecedents of schizophrenia, environmental risk factors and polygenic risk factors as contributors to a poor long-term functional outcome for FEP patients.

The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking.

Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011–2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016–2018; LS2: 2018–2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs.

The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs.

It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs.

Depression during pregnancy and after the birth of a child is highly prevalent and an important public health problem. Psychological interventions are the first-line treatment and, although a considerable number of randomized trials have been conducted, no recent comprehensive meta-analysis has evaluated treatment effects.

We used an existing database of randomized controlled trials of psychotherapies for adult depression and included studies aimed at perinatal depression. Random effects models were used in all analyses. We examined the effects of the interventions in the short and long term, and also examined secondary outcomes.

Forty-three studies with 49 comparisons and 6270 participants between an intervention and control group were included. The overall effect size was g = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45~0.89; numbers needed-to-be-treated = 4.39] with high heterogeneity (I2 = 80%; 95% CI 75~85). This effect size remained largely unchanged and significant in a series of sensitivity analyses, although some publication bias was found. The effects remained significant at 6–12 months follow-up. Significant effects were also found for social support, anxiety, functional limitations, parental stress and marital stress, although the number of studies for each outcome was low. All results should be considered with caution because of the high levels of heterogeneity in most analyses.

Psychological interventions are probably effective in the treatment of perinatal depression, with effects that last at least up to 6–12 months and probably also have effects on social support, anxiety, functional impairment, parental stress, and marital stress.

Since 2008, the Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme has offered adults in England evidence-based psychological treatments for common mental disorders (CMDs) such as depression and anxiety disorders. However, inequalities in access have not been explored at the national level.

Using a unique individual patient dataset that linked 2011 Census information of English residents to national IAPT data collected between April 2017 and March 2018, we estimated the rate of access by a wide range of socio-demographic characteristics that are not routinely available. A large household survey was used to estimate the prevalence of probable CMDs by these socio-demographic characteristics. We estimated the probability of access to IAPT amongst people with CMDs by comparing the rates of access from IAPT data and the estimates of prevalence of CMDs from the household survey. Both unadjusted and adjusted (for important patient characteristics) access rates were estimated in logistic regression models.

As a proportion of those with a probable CMD, access to IAPT varied markedly by socio-demographic characteristics. Older adults, males, people born outside of the UK, people with religious beliefs, people from Asian ethnic backgrounds, people reporting a disability and those without any academic or professional qualifications were underrepresented in IAPT services nationally, in adjusted models.

The identification of patients who may be underrepresented in IAPT provides an opportunity for services to target outreach and engagement with these groups. Further understanding of barriers to access should help increase equity in access.

Substance-induced psychosis (SIP) is a serious condition and may predispose for schizophrenia. We know too little about SIP incidence over time and across countries, including substance-specific SIPs. We estimated annual incidence rate of SIP in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden according to substance, age, gender, and socioeconomic background.

Data were drawn from registries covering the whole adult population in the countries. Annual incidence rate per 100 000 persons of SIPs was estimated for Denmark and Sweden from 2000 to 2016 and for Norway from 2010 to 2015.

The annual incidence rate of any SIP fluctuated between 9.3 and 14.1. The most commonly occurring SIPs were those induced by alcohol, cannabis, amphetamines, and multiple substances. There was a steady decrease in the incidence rate of alcohol-induced psychosis from the first to the last year of the observation period in Denmark (from 4.9 to 1.5) and Sweden (from 4.5 to 2.2). The incidence rate of cannabis-induced psychosis increased in all countries, from 2.6 to 5.6 in Denmark, from 0.8 to 2.7 in Sweden, and from 1.8 to 3.0 in Norway. Median age of any SIP decreased in Denmark (from 36 to 29 years) and Sweden (from 41 to 31 years). Incidence rates were higher in men and in individuals on disability pension, and increased more among those with high parental education.

We found similar and stable incidence rates of any SIP in all Scandinavian countries through the observation period. The incidence of alcohol-induced psychosis decreased. The incidence of cannabis-induced psychosis increased.

Although executive impairment has been reported in mania, its brain functional correlates have been relatively little studied. This study examined goal management, believed to be more closely related to executive impairment in daily life than other executive tasks, using a novel functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm in patients in this illness phase.

Twenty-one currently manic patients with bipolar disorder and 30 matched healthy controls were scanned while performing the Computerized Multiple Elements Test (CMET). This requires participants to sequentially play four simple games, with transition between games being made either voluntarily (executive condition) or automatically (control condition).

CMET performance was impaired in the manic patients compared to the healthy controls. Manic patients failed to increase activation in the lateral frontal, cingulate and inferior parietal cortex when the executive demands of the task increased, while this increase was observed in the healthy controls. Activity in these regions was associated with task performance.

Manic patients show evidence of impaired goal management, which is associated with a pattern of reduced medial and lateral frontal and parietal activity.

The transition to university and resultant social support network disruption can be detrimental to the mental health of university students. As the need for mental health support is becoming increasingly prevalent in students, identification of factors associated with poorer outcomes is a priority. Changes in social functioning have a bi-directional relationship with mental health, however it is not clear how such measures may be related to effectiveness of psychological treatments.

Growth mixture models were estimated on a sample of 5221 students treated in routine mental health services to identify different trajectories of change in self-rated impairment in social leisure activities and close relationships during the course of treatment. Multinomial regression explored associations between trajectory classes and treatment outcomes.

Five trajectory classes were identified for social leisure activity impairment while three classes were identified for close relationship impairment. In both measures most students remained mildly impaired. Other trajectories included severe impairment with limited improvement, severe impairment with delayed improvement, and, in social leisure activities only, rapid improvement, and deterioration. Trajectories of improvement were associated with positive treatment outcomes while trajectories of worsening or stable severe impairment were associated with negative treatment outcomes.

Changes in social functioning impairment are associated with psychological treatment outcomes in students, suggesting that these changes may be associated with treatment effectiveness as well as recovery experiences. Future research should seek to establish whether a causal link exists to understand whether integrating social support within psychological treatment may bring additional benefit for students.

Cannabis use is a global public health issue associated with increased risks of developing mental health disorders, especially in young people. We aimed to investigate the relationships between cannabis exposure and risks of receiving mental illness diagnoses or treatment as outcomes.

A population based, retrospective, open cohort study using patients recorded in ‘IQVIA medical research data’, a UK primary care database. Read codes were used to confirm patients with recorded exposure to cannabis use who were matched up to two unexposed patients. We examined the risk of developing three categories of mental ill health: depression, anxiety or serious mental illness (SMI).

At study entry, the exposed cohort had an increased likelihood of having experienced mental ill health [odds ratio (OR) 4.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.99–4.27] and mental ill health-related prescription (OR 2.95; 95% CI 2.86–3.05) compared to the unexposed group. During the study period we found that exposure to cannabis was associated with an increased risk of developing any mental disorder [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.73; 95% CI 2.59–2.88], also noted when examining by subtype of disorder: anxiety (aHR 2.46; 95% CI 2.29–2.64), depression (aHR 2.34; 95% CI 2.20–2.49) and SMI (aHR 6.41; 95% CI 5.42–7.57). These results remained robust in sensitivity analyses.

These findings point to the potential need for a public health approach to the management of people misusing cannabis. However, there is a gross under-recording of cannabis use in GP records, as seen by the prevalence of recorded cannabis exposure substantially lower than self-reported survey records.

A short, effective therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) could decrease barriers to implementation and uptake, reduce dropout, and ameliorate distressing symptoms in military personnel and veterans. This non-inferiority RCT evaluated the efficacy of 2-week massed prolonged exposure (MPE) therapy compared to standard 10-week prolonged exposure (SPE), the current gold standard treatment, in reducing PTSD severity in both active serving and veterans in a real-world health service system.

This single-blinded multi-site non-inferiority RCT took place in 12 health clinics across Australia. The primary outcome was PTSD symptom severity measured by the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5) at 12 weeks. 138 military personnel and veterans with PTSD were randomised. 71 participants were allocated to SPE, with 63 allocated to MPE.

The intention-to-treat sample included 138 participants, data were analysed for 134 participants (88.1% male, M = 46 years). The difference between the mean MPE and SPE group PTSD scores from baseline to 12 weeks-post therapy was 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI) −4.19 to +6.07]. The upper endpoint of the 95% CI was below +7, indicating MPE was non-inferior to SPE. Significant rates of loss of PTSD diagnosis were found for both groups (MPE 53.8%, SPE 54.1%). Dropout rates were 4.8% (MPE) and 16.9% (SPE).

MPE was non-inferior to SPE in significantly reducing symptoms of PTSD. Significant reductions in symptom severity, low dropout rates, and loss of diagnosis indicate MPE is a feasible, accessible, and effective treatment. Findings demonstrate novel methods to deliver gold-standard treatments for PTSD should be routinely considered.

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) is common, first-line treatments are often only partially effective, and reliable predictors of treatment response are lacking. Here, we assessed resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) at pre-treatment and during early treatment as a potential predictor of response to a novel attention bias modification procedure, gaze-contingent music reward therapy (GC-MRT).

Thirty-two adults with SAD were treated with GC-MRT. rsFC was assessed with multi-voxel pattern analysis of fMRI at pre-treatment and after 2–3 weeks. For comparison, 20 healthy control (HC) participants without treatment were assessed twice for rsFC over the same time period. All SAD participants underwent clinical evaluation at pre-treatment, early-treatment (week 2–3), and post-treatment.

SAD and depressive symptoms improved significantly from pre-treatment to post-treatment. After 2–3 weeks of treatment, decreased connectivity between the executive control network (ECN) and salience network (SN), and increased connectivity within the ECN predicted improvement in SAD and depressive symptoms at week 8. Increased connectivity between the ECN and default mode network (DMN) predicted greater improvement in SAD but not depressive symptoms at week 8. Connectivity within the DMN decreased significantly after 2–3 weeks of treatment in the SAD group, while no changes were found in HC over the same time interval.

We identified early changes in rsFC during a course of GC-MRT for SAD that predicted symptom change. Connectivity changes within the ECN, ECN-DMN, and ECN-SN may be related to mechanisms underlying the clinical effects of GC-MRT and warrant further study in controlled trials.

The mechanisms underlying the antipsychotic potential of cannabidiol (CBD) remain unclear but growing evidence indicates that dysfunction in the insula, a key brain region involved in the processing of motivationally salient stimuli, may have a role in the pathophysiology of psychosis. Here, we investigate whether the antipsychotic mechanisms of CBD are underpinned by their effects on insular activation, known to be involved in salience processing.

A within-subject, crossover, double-blind, placebo-controlled investigation of 19 healthy controls and 15 participants with early psychosis was conducted. Administration of a single dose of CBD was compared with placebo in psychosis participants while performing the monetary incentive delay task, an fMRI paradigm. Anticipation of reward and loss were used to contrast motivationally salient stimuli against a neutral control condition.

No group differences in brain activation between psychosis patients compared with healthy controls were observed. Attenuation of insula activation was observed following CBD, compared to placebo. Sensitivity analyses controlling for current cannabis use history did not affect the main results.

Our findings are in accordance with existing evidence suggesting that CBD modulates brain regions involved in salience processing. Whether such effects underlie the putative antipsychotic effects of CBD remains to be investigated.