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PRIMARY MODEL GETS IT RIGHT AND EARLY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

Helmut Norpoth  and
Michael Bednarczuk
Helmut Norpoth
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University
Michael Bednarczuk
Affiliation:
University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
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Extract

In January of 2012, the Primary Model predicted that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin. He did. Obama's popular vote total topped Romney's by more than four million votes. The Primary Model's forecast was by far the earliest of those assembled in the special 2012 PS symposium (45 (4): 614–617). Even so it predicted an Obama victory with greater certainty (almost 90%) than any other one. To put this performance in perspective, note that several models got it wrong in 2012, and hardly any of the other ones picking Obama to win did so with much certainty. Many preelection polls also failed to predict an Obama victory with their final estimate, including the venerable Gallup Poll. How did the Primary Model get it right so far in advance of Election Day 2012?

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 37
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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