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What, If Anything, Have We Learned from Presidential Election Forecasting?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 April 2014

William G. Mayer
William G. Mayer*
Affiliation:
Northeastern University
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Abstract

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Type
Symposium: US Presidential Election Forecasting
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 47 , Issue 2 , April 2014 , pp. 329 - 331
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2014 

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References

REFERENCES

Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. “An Improved Model for Predicting Presidential Election Outcomes.” PS: Political Science and Politics 21 (Autumn): 843–47.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2013. “A First Party-Term Incumbent Survives: The Fundamentals of 2012.” In Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Wink, Kenneth A.. 1990. “Trial-Heat Forecasts of the Presidential Vote.” American Politics Quarterly 18 (July): 251–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1993. “Why Are American Presidential Election Campaigns So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science 23 (October): 409–51.Google Scholar
Mayer, William G. 2012. “How the Romney Campaign Blew It.” The Forum 10 (December): 40–50.Google Scholar