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Prediction of Ground Level Enhancements

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Marlon Núñez Open the ORCID record for Marlon Núñez [Opens in a new window] ,
Pedro J. Reyes-Santiago  and
Olga E. Malandraki
Marlon Núñez
Affiliation:
Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, University of Málaga, Campus de Teatinos, 29071 Málaga, Spain, email: [email protected]
Pedro J. Reyes-Santiago
Affiliation:
Department of Languages and Computer Sciences, University of Málaga, Campus de Teatinos, 29071 Málaga, Spain, email: [email protected]
Olga E. Malandraki
Affiliation:
IAASARS, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15236 Penteli, Greece, email: [email protected]
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Abstract

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This paper summarizes the first tool that is able to predict Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). It makes real-time predictions of the occurrence of GLE events from the analysis of soft X-ray and differential proton flux measured by the GOES satellite network. Before the development of this tool, space weather systems have been warning users about evolving GLE events by processing neutron measurements recorded on ground level. This tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min and 15 min with respect to the first NM station’s alert and the GLE Alert Plus warning, respectively. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under agreement No 637324.

Keywords

Ground Level Enhancementsprediction
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 301 - 303
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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