Log-concave random variables and their various properties play an increasingly important role in probability, statistics, and other fields. For a distribution F, denote by 𝒟F the set of distributions G such that the convolution of F and G has a log-concave probability mass function or probability density function. In this paper, we investigate sufficient and necessary conditions under which 𝒟F ⊆ 𝒟G, where F and G belong to a parametric family of distributions. Both discrete and continuous settings are considered.

Temporal shaping of time series is the activity of deriving a time series model with a prescribed marginal distribution and some sample path characteristics. Starting with an empirical sample path, one often computes from it an empirical histogram (a step-function density) and empirical autocorrelation function. The corresponding cumulative distribution function is piecewise linear, and so is the inverse distribution function. The so-called inversion method uses the latter to generate the corresponding distribution from a uniform random variable on [0,1), histograms being a special case. This paper shows how to manipulate the inverse histogram and an underlying marginally uniform process, so as to “shape” the model sample paths in an attempt to match the qualitative nature of the empirical sample paths, while maintaining a guaranteed match of the empirical marginal distribution. It proposes a new approach to temporal shaping of time series and identifies a number of operations on a piecewise-linear inverse histogram function, which leave the marginal distribution invariant. For cyclical processes with a prescribed marginal distribution and a prescribed cycle profile, one can also use these transformations to generate sample paths which “conform” to the profile. This approach also improves the ability to approximate the empirical autocorrelation function.

We develop a new measure of reliability for the mean behavior of a process by calculating the probability the cumulative sample mean will stay within a given distance from the true mean over a period of time. This probability is derived using boundary-crossing properties of Brownian bridges. We derive finite sample results for independent and identically distributed normal data, limiting results for data meeting a functional central limit theorem, and draw parallels to standard normal confidence intervals. We deliver numerical results for i.i.d., dependent, and queueing processes.

We consider a resource allocation model to analyze investment strategies for financial services firms in order to minimize their operational risk losses. A firm has to decide how much to invest in human resources and in infrastructure (information technology). The operational risk losses are a function of the activity level of the firm, of the amounts invested in personnel and in infrastructure, and of interaction effects between the amounts invested in personnel and infrastructure. We first consider a deterministic setting and show certain monotonicity properties of the optimal investments assuming general loss functions that are convex. We find that because of the interaction effects “economies of scale" may not hold in our setting, in contrast to a typical manufacturing environment. We then consider a general polynomial loss function in a stochastic setting with the number of transactions at the firm being a random variable. We characterize the asymptotic behaviors of the optimal investments in both heavy and light trading environments. We show that when the market is very liquid, that is, it is subject to heavy transaction volumes, it is optimal for a financial firm that is highly risk sensitive to use a balanced investment strategy. Both a heavier right tail of the distribution of transaction volume and a firm's risk sensitivity necessitate larger investments; in a heavy trading environment these two factors reinforce one another. However, in a light trading environment with the transaction volume having a heavy left tail the investment will be independent of the firm's sensitivity to risk.

This paper considers stochastic comparison of parallel systems in terms of likelihood ratio order under scale models. We introduce a new order, the so-called q-larger order, and show that under certain conditions, the q-larger order between the scale vectors can imply the likelihood ratio order of parallel systems. Applications are given to the generalized gamma scale family.

We consider polling models in the sense of Takagi [19]. In our case, the feature of the server is that it may be forced to wait idly for new messages at an empty queue instead of switching to the next station. We propose four different wait-and-see strategies that govern these waiting periods. We assume Poisson arrivals for new messages and allow general service and switchover time distributions. The results are formulas for the mean average queueing delay and characterizations of the cases where the wait-and-see strategies yield a lower delay compared with the exhaustive strategy.

Under some mild conditions, the strong consistency and complete consistency of the LS estimators in the errors-in-variable regression model with weakly negative dependent errors are obtained, which generalize the corresponding ones for negatively associated random variables. In addition, the simulation study shows that the biases of our method are small, and our method performs well.

We derive single integral representations for the exact distribution of the sum of independent generalized Pareto random variables. The integrands involve the incomplete and complementary incomplete gamma functions. Applications to insurance and catastrophe bonds are described.

In this paper, we mainly study the moderate deviation principle of sample quantiles and order statistics for stationary m-dependent random variables. The results obtained in this paper extend the corresponding ones for an independent and identically distributed sequence to a stationary m-dependent sequence.

In the reliability context, the geometric distribution is a natural choice to model the lifetimes of some equipment and components when they are measured by the number of completed cycles of operation or strokes, or in case of periodic monitoring of continuous data. This paper aims at investigating how the heterogeneity among the parameters affects some characteristics such as the distribution and hazard rate functions of spacings arising from independent heterogeneous geometric random variables. First, refined representations of the distribution functions are provided for both the second spacing and sample range from heterogeneous geometric sample. Second, stochastic comparisons are carried out on the second spacings and sample ranges for two sets of independent and heterogeneous geometric random variables in the sense of the usual stochastic and hazard rate orderings. The results established here not only fill the gap on the study of stochastic properties of spacings from heterogeneous geometric samples, but also are expected to be applied in the fields of statistics and reliability.

In this paper, the complete consistency for the weighted estimator of non-parametric regression model based on widely orthant-dependent errors is established, where the restriction imposed on the dominating coefficient g(n) is very general. Moreover, under some stronger moment condition, we further obtain the convergence rate of the complete consistency, where the assumption on the dominating coefficient g(n) is also very general.

Bayesian networks are convenient graphical expressions for high-dimensional probability distributions which represent complex relationships between a large number of random variables. They have been employed extensively in areas such as bioinformatics, artificial intelligence, diagnosis, and risk management. The recovery of the structure of a network from data is of prime importance for the purposes of modeling, analysis, and prediction. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a Bayesian network from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the search becomes an optimization problem that can be approached with either deterministic or stochastic methods. In this paper, we introduce a new search strategy where one walks through the space of graphs by modeling the appearance and disappearance of edges as a birth and death process. We compare our novel approach with the popular Metropolis–Hastings search strategy and give empirical evidence that the birth and death process has superior mixing properties.

In this paper, we give the definition of tree-indexed Markov chains in random environment with countable state space, and then study the realization of Markov chain indexed by a tree in random environment. Finally, we prove the strong law of large numbers and Shannon–McMillan theorem for Markov chains indexed by a Cayley tree in a Markovian environment with countable state space.