Public Conformism with Health Regulation is Crumbling as COVID-19 Becomes a Chronic Threat – A Cohort Study

Abstract

Introduction:

Three years into the COVID-19 pandemic, experience and studies have shown that public behavior significantly contributes to the disease spread increase or reduction. As the pandemic becomes a chronic threat, maintaining public trust to comply with health regulations proves challenging as people develop pandemic fatigue. This study aims to analyze the long-term trends in public attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and compliance with health regulations.

Method:

A longitudinal cohort study was performed from February 2020 until January 2022, collecting data from nationally representative samples (N=2,568) of the adult population in Israel. Data Collection was timed with the first five morbidity waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined public trust in Israeli health regulations, public panic, worry, and compliance with health regulations, particularly self-quarantine.

Results:

The data shows that public trust in health regulations in January 2022 is at an all-time low (25%) compared to the maximum value measured in March 2020 (~75%). The perceived worry from COVID-19 is steadily declining, whereas the perception of public panic is increasing as the pandemic progresses into a chronic threat. While public compliance with self-quarantine was reported to be close to 100% in the early stages of the pandemic, it has dropped to 38% in early 2022, mainly when compensation for lost wages is not offered. Regression analysis suggests that trust is a significant predictor of compliance with health regulations.

Conclusion:

The findings, spanning more than two years of the pandemic, highlight the importance of maintaining public trust as a significant driver of public compliance with health regulations. The "fifth wave" of the pandemic resulted in an all-time low in public trust. The Israeli public, usually highly compliant, shows signs of crumbling conformity. Decision-makers ought to consider means to foster public trust.