Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T06:34:48.841Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Arc of Modernization: Economic Structure, Materialism, and the Onset of Civil Conflict

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 June 2016

J. Tyson Chatagnier  and
Emanuele Castelli
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The onset of intrastate conflict has two requisite conditions: that prospective insurgents have an incentive to rebel, and that the state lacks the capacity to deter such a rebellion. We outline a simple rationalist argument grounded in gains from economic growth—to both individual income and state revenue—to argue that modernization has the potential to affect the likelihood of civil conflict through both of these conditions. The shift away from a rent-seeking economy affects opportunity costs for rebellion by increasing the cost of recruitment, broadening the time horizon for gain, and decreasing looting possibilities. On the state side, modernization increases state military, economic, and institutional capacity, allowing governments to deter rebellion. We construct an index of modernization from World Bank data and apply a strategic model to explore the effect of modernization on both states and rebels simultaneously. We find that the modernization process describes an arc that may increase the likelihood of unrest in the early stages, but has long-term stabilizing effects.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 7 , Issue 2 , April 2019 , pp. 233 - 252
Copyright
© The European Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

J. Tyson Chatagnier, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of Houston, 3551 Cullen Boulevard, Room 447, Houston, TX 77204-3011, USA ([email protected]). Emanuele Castelli, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via S. Croce 77, 38122 Trento, Italy ([email protected]). Authors’ names are listed in reverse alphabetical order, and do not indicate unequal contributions. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 2014 Meeting of the European Political Science Association and the 2014 Meeting of the American Political Science Association. The authors thank Filippo Andreatta, Rob Carroll, Kerim Can Kavakli, and Francesco Moro, as well as the editor and reviewers, for their helpful comments.

References

Abrahamian, Ervand. 1982. Iran Between Two Revolutions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Amoroso, Bruno. 1998. On Globalization: Capitalism in the 21st Century. London: Palgrave.Google Scholar
Barbieri, Katherine, and Reuveny, Rafael. 2005. ‘Economic Globalization and Civil War’. Journal of Politics 67(4):1228–1247.Google Scholar
Barro, Robert J., and Lee, Jong Wha. 2013. ‘A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010’. Journal of Development Economics 104:184–198.Google Scholar
Bartusevičius, Henrikas. 2014. ‘The Inequality-Conflict Nexus Re-Examined Income, Education and Popular Rebellions’. Journal of Peace Research 51(1):35–50.Google Scholar
Bell, Daniel. 1973. The Coming of Post-Industrial Society. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Blattman, Christopher, and Miguel, Edward. 2010. ‘Civil War’. Journal of Economic Literature 48(1):3–57.Google Scholar
Blokland, Hans. 2008. Modernization and its Political Consequences: Weber, Mannheim, and Schum-Peter. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2008. ‘Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World’. Politics 60(3):390–437.Google Scholar
Brawley, Mark R. 1993. ‘Regime Types, Markets, and War: The Importance of Pervasive Rents in Foreign Policy’. Comparative Political Studies 26(2):178–197.Google Scholar
Buhaug, Halvard. 2006. ‘Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War’. Journal of Peace Research 43(6):691–708.Google Scholar
Bussmann, Margit, and Schneider, Gerald. 2007. ‘When Globalization Discontent Turns Violent: Foreign Economic Liberalization and Internal War’. International Studies Quarterly 51(1):79–97.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2009. ‘Introduction to Special Issue on “Disaggregating Civil War”’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4):487–495.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Hug, Simon. 2013. ‘Elections and Ethnic Civil War’. Comparative Political Studies 46(3):387–417.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 1998. ‘On Economic Causes of Civil War’. Oxford Economic Papers 50(4):563–573.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2004. ‘Greed and Grievance in Civil War’. Oxford Economic Papers 56(4):563–595.Google Scholar
Davies, James C. 1962. ‘Toward a Theory of Revolution’. American Sociological Review 27(1):5–19.Google Scholar
de Soysa, Indra. 2002. ‘Paradise is a Bazaar? Greed, Creed, and Governance in Civil War, 1989–99’. Journal of Peace Research 39(4):395–416.Google Scholar
de Soysa, Indra, and Fjelde, Hanne. 2010. ‘Is the Hidden Hand an Iron Fist? Capitalism and Civil Peace, 1970–2005’. Journal of Peace Research 47(3):287–298.Google Scholar
Denny, Elaine K., and Walter, Barbara F.. 2014. ‘Ethnicity and Civil War’. Journal of Peace Research 51(2):199–212.Google Scholar
Deutsch, Karl W. 1961. ‘Social Mobilization and Political Development’. American Political Science Review 55(3):493–514.Google Scholar
Devetak, Richard, and Hughes, Christopher W.. 2007. The Globalization of Political Violence: Globalization’s Shadow. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Di Palma, Giuseppe. 1990. To Craft Democracies: An Essay on Democratic Transitions. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Dreher, Axel, Gaston, Noel, and Martens, Pim. 2008. Measuring Globalisation: Gauging its Consequences. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Eisenstadt, Shmuel Noah. 1964. ‘Breakdowns of Modernization’. Economic Development and Cultural Change 12(4):345–367.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2005. ‘Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4):483–507.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2008. ‘Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War’. In Elhanan Helpman (ed.), Institutions and Economic Performance, 292–328. Cambridge, MA: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2003. ‘Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War’. American Political Science Review 97(1):75–90.Google Scholar
Ferguson, Yale H., and Mansbach, Richard W.. 2004. Remapping Global Politics: History’s Revenge and Future Shock, vol. 97 Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fjelde, Hanne, and de Soysa, Indra. 2009. ‘Coercion, Co-Optation, or Cooperation? State Capacity and the Risk of Civil War, 1961–2004’. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(1):5–25.Google Scholar
Flaten, Ranveig Drolsum, and de Soysa, Indra. 2012. ‘Globalization and Political Violence, 1970–2008’. International Interactions 38(5):622–646.Google Scholar
Gat, Azar. 2013. ‘Is War Declining—And Why?’ Journal of Peace Research 50(2):149–157.Google Scholar
Gellner, Ernest. 1983. Nations and Nationalism. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Hegre, Havard, and Strand, Havard. 2009. ‘Democracy and Civil War’. In Manus I. Midlarsky (ed.), Handbook of War Studies III, 155–192. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Havard. 2002. ‘Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Dataset’. Journal of Peace Research 39(5):615–637.Google Scholar
Gropman, Alan L. 1996. Mobilizing US Industry in World War II. Washington, DC: National Defense University.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Gissinger, Ranveig, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2003. ‘Globalization and Internal Conflict’. In Globalization and Armed Conflict, 251–275. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Ellingsen, Tanja, Gates, Scott, and Gleditsch, Nils Petter. 2001. ‘Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992’. American Political Science Review 95(1):33–48.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1977. The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Norris, Pippa. 2003. Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change Around the World. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jakobsen, Tor Georg, de Soysa, Indra, and Jakobsen, Jo. 2013. ‘Why Do Poor Countries Suffer Costly Conflict? Unpacking Per Capita Income and the Onset of Civil War’. Conflict Management and Peace Science 30(2):140–160.Google Scholar
Klopp, Jacqueline M., and Zuern, Elke. 2007. ‘The Politics of Violence in Democratization: Lessons from Kenya and South Africa’. Comparative Politics 39(2):127–146.Google Scholar
Koubi, Vally, and Böhmelt, Tobias. 2014. ‘Grievances, Economic Wealth, and Civil Conflict’. Journal of Peace Research 51(1):19–33.Google Scholar
Krain, Matthew, and Myers, Marissa Edson. 1997. ‘Democracy and Civil War: A Note on the Democratic Peace Proposition’. International Interactions 23(1):109–118.Google Scholar
Kuznets, Simon. 1955. ‘Economic Growth and Income Inequality’. The American Economic Review 45(1):1–28.Google Scholar
Lerner, Daniel. 1958. The Passing of Traditional Society: Modernizing the Middle East. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1959. ‘Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy’. The American Political Science Review 53(1):69–105.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1994. ‘The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited: 1993 Presidential Address’. American Sociological Review 59(1):1–22.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2002. ‘Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2007’. Available at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm, accessed 25 May 2016.Google Scholar
Maslow, Abraham Harold. 1943. ‘A Theory of Human Motivation’. Psychological Review 50(4):370–396.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David. 2003. ‘Globalization, Democratization, and the Prospects for Civil War in the New Millennium’. International Studies Review 5(4):19–35.Google Scholar
Moore, Barrington Jr. 1966. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston, MA: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Morrison, Kevin M. 2009. ‘Oil, Nontax Revenue, and the Redistributional Foundations of Regime Stability’. International Organization 63(1):107–138.Google Scholar
Mumford, Lewis. 1961. The City in History: Its Origins, its Transformation, and its Prospects. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World.Google Scholar
Nieman, Mark David. 2011. ‘Shocks and Turbulence: Globalization and the Occurrence of Civil War’. International Interactions 37(3):263–292.Google Scholar
Nieman, Mark David. 2015. ‘Statistical Analysis of Strategic Interaction with Unobserved Player Actions: Introducing a Strategic Probit with Partial Observability’. Political Analysis 23(3):429–448.Google Scholar
North, Douglass C., Wallis, John J., and Weingast, Barry R.. 2009. Violence and Social Order. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Østby, Gudrun. 2008. ‘Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict’. Journal of Peace Research 45(2):143–162.Google Scholar
Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2005. ‘Does Democracy Preempt Civil Wars?’ European Journal of Political Economy 21(2):445–465.Google Scholar
Rose, Richard. 1969. ‘Dynamic Tendencies in the Authority of Regimes’. World Politics 21(4):602–628.Google Scholar
Rosenau, James N. 2003. Distant Proximities: Dynamics Beyond Globalization. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael L. 2004. ‘What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War?’ Journal of Peace Research 41(3):337–356.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael L. 2012. The Oil Curse: How Petroleum Wealth Shapes the Development of Nations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Rostow, Walt Whitman. 1960. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2001. ‘Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1)’. Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(3):259–282.Google Scholar
Sanborn, Howard, and Thyne, Clayton L.. 2014. ‘Learning Democracy: Education and the Fall of Authoritarian Regimes’. British Journal of Political Science 44(4):773–797.Google Scholar
Schneider, Gerald. 2014. ‘Globalization and Social Transition’. In Edward Newman and Karl R. DeRouen Jr. (eds), Handbook of Civil War, 186–196. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph A. 1955 [1919]. ‘The Sociology of Imperialisms’. Imperialism & Social Classes, 2–98. Cleveland, OH: World Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S. 1999. ‘Strategic Interaction and the Statistical Analysis of International Conflict’. American Political Science Review 93(2):279–297.Google Scholar
Signorino, Curtis S., and Tarar, Ahmer. 2006. ‘A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence’. American Journal of Political Science 50(3):586–605.Google Scholar
Stewart, Frances. 2002. ‘Horizontal Inequalities: A Neglected Dimension of Development’. Queen Elizabeth House, Working Paper Series No. 81, University of Oxford, Oxford.Google Scholar
Taydas, Zeynep, Peksen, Dursun, and James, Patrick. 2010. ‘Why Do Civil Wars Occur? Understanding the Importance of Institutional Quality’. Civil Wars 12(3):195–217.Google Scholar
The Maddison-Project 2013. http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/home.htm, 2013 version.Google Scholar
Thies, Cameron G. 2010. ‘Of Rulers, Rebels, and Revenue: State Capacity, Civil War Onset, and Primary Commodities’. Journal of Peace Research 47(3):321–332.Google Scholar
Thies, Cameron G., and Sobek, David. 2010. ‘War, Economic Development, and Political Development in the Contemporary International System’. International Studies Quarterly 54(1):267–287.Google Scholar
Thyne, Clayton L. 2006. ‘ABC’s, 123’s, and the Golden Rule: The Pacifying Effect of Education on Civil War, 1980–1999’. International Studies Quarterly 50(4):733–754.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2013. ‘World Development Indicators’. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.TOTL.ZS.Google Scholar
Xiang, Jun. 2010. ‘Relevance as a Latent Variable in Dyadic Analysis of Conflict’. The Journal of Politics 72(2):484–498.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Chatagnier and Castelli Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IVPBRF
Link