Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7fkt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-03T00:30:45.491Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Heather E. Douglas
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Although prediction has been largely absent from discussions of explanation for the past 40 years, theories of explanation can gain much from a reintroduction. I review the history that divorced prediction from explanation, examine the proliferation of models of explanation that followed, and argue that accounts of explanation have been impoverished by the neglect of prediction. Instead of a revival of the symmetry thesis, I suggest that explanation should be understood as a cognitive tool that assists us in generating new predictions. This view of explanation and prediction clarifies what makes an explanation scientific and why inference to the best explanation makes sense in science.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 76 , Issue 4 , October 2009 , pp. 444 - 463
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

‡

I would like to thank Ted Richards, Gary Hardcastle, George Reisch, the History and Philosophy of Science and Technology Research Group at the University of Tennessee, and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful and helpful comments.

References

Angel, R. B. (1967), “Explanation and Prediction: A Plea for Reason”, Explanation and Prediction: A Plea for Reason 34:276–282.Google Scholar
Collins, Robin (1994), “Against the Epistemic Value of Prediction over Accommodation”, Against the Epistemic Value of Prediction over Accommodation 82:210–224.Google Scholar
De Regt, Hank W., and Dieks, Dennis (2005), “A Contextual Approach to Scientific Understanding”, A Contextual Approach to Scientific Understanding 144:137–170.Google Scholar
Friedman, Michael (1974), “Explanation and Scientific Understanding”, Explanation and Scientific Understanding 71:5–19.Google Scholar
Grünbaum, Adolf (1963), “Temporally Asymmetric Principles, Parity between Explanation and Prediction, and Mechanism versus Teleology”, in Baumin, Bernard (ed.), Philosophy of Science: The Delaware Seminar. New York: Wiley, 57–96.Google Scholar
Hanson, Norwood Russell (1959), “On the Symmetry between Explanation and Prediction”, On the Symmetry between Explanation and Prediction 68:349–358.Google Scholar
Hardcastle, Gary (2002), “The Modern History of Scientific Explanation”, in Heidelberger, Michael and Stadler, Friedrich (eds.), History of Philosophy and Science: 2002 Vienna Circle Yearbook, Vol. 9. Amsterdam: Kluwer, 137–145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. (1942), “The Function of General Laws in History”, The Function of General Laws in History 39:35–48.Google Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. (1965), Aspects of Scientific Explanation. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Hempel, Carl G., and Oppenheim, Paul (1948), “Studies in the Logic of Explanation”, Studies in the Logic of Explanation 15:135–175.Google Scholar
Hofstadter, Albert (1951), “Explanation and Necessity”, Explanation and Necessity 11:339–347.Google Scholar
Kitcher, Philip (1976), “Explanation, Conjunction, and Unification”, Explanation, Conjunction, and Unification 73:207–212.Google Scholar
Kitcher, Philip (1989), “Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World”, in Wesley Salmon and Philip Kitcher (eds.), Scientific Explanation, Vol. 13, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 410–505.Google Scholar
Koertge, Noretta (1992), “Explanation and Its Problems”, Explanation and Its Problems 43:85–98.Google Scholar
Laudan, Larry (2004), “The Epistemic, the Cognitive, and the Social”, in Machamer, Peter K. and Wolters, Gereon (eds.), Science, Values, and Objectivity. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 14–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipton, Peter (2004), Inference to the Best Explanation, 2nd ed. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Longino, Helen (2002), The Fate of Knowledge. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machamer, Peter, Darden, Lindley, and Craver, Carl F. (2000), “Thinking about Mechanisms”, Thinking about Mechanisms 67:1–25.Google Scholar
Mayo, Deborah (1991), “Novel Evidence and Severe Tests”, Novel Evidence and Severe Tests 58:523–552.Google Scholar
Nagel, Ernest (1961), The Structure of Science: Problems in the Logic of Scientific Explanation. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naylor, Bruce G., and Handford, Paul (1985), “In Defense of Darwin's Theory”, In Defense of Darwin's Theory 35:478–484.Google Scholar
Newton-Smith, W. H. (2000), “Explanation”, in Newton-Smith, W. H. (ed.), A Companion to the Philosophy of Science. Oxford: Blackwell, 127–133.Google Scholar
Rescher, Nicholas (1958), “On Explanation and Prediction”, On Explanation and Prediction 8:281–290.Google Scholar
Rescher, Nicholas (1963), “Discrete State Systems, Markov Chains, and Problems in the Theory of Scientific Explanation and Prediction”, Discrete State Systems, Markov Chains, and Problems in the Theory of Scientific Explanation and Prediction 30:325–345.Google Scholar
Rescher, Nicholas (1997), “H2O: Hempel-Helmer-Oppenheim, an Episode in the History of Scientific Philosophy in the 20th Century”, H2O: Hempel-Helmer-Oppenheim, an Episode in the History of Scientific Philosophy in the 20th Century 64:334–360.Google Scholar
Salmon, Wesley (1978), “Why Ask, ‘Why?’? An Inquiry Concerning Scientific Explanation”, Why Ask, ‘Why?’? An Inquiry Concerning Scientific Explanation 51:683–705.Google Scholar
Salmon, Wesley (1989), Four Decades of Scientific Explanation. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. (Originally published in Salmon, Wesley, and Philip Kitcher, eds. [1989], Scientific Explanation, Vol. 13, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.)Google Scholar
Salmon, Wesley (1999), “The Spirit of Logical Empiricism: Carl G. Hempel's Role in Twentieth-Century Philosophy of Science”, The Spirit of Logical Empiricism: Carl G. Hempel's Role in Twentieth-Century Philosophy of Science 66:333–350.Google Scholar
Scheffler, Israel (1957), “Explanation, Prediction, and Abstraction”, Explanation, Prediction, and Abstraction 7:293–309.Google Scholar
Scriven, Michael (1959), “Explanation and Prediction in Evolutionary Theory”, Explanation and Prediction in Evolutionary Theory 130:477–482.Google ScholarPubMed
Scriven, Michael (1962), “Explanations, Predictions, and Laws,” in Herbert Feigl and Grover Maxwell (eds.), Scientific Explanation, Space and Time, Vol. 3, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 170–230.Google Scholar
Toulmin, Stephen (1961), Foresight and Understanding: An Enquiry into the Aims of Science. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Trout, J. D. (2002), “Scientific Explanation and the Sense of Understanding”, Scientific Explanation and the Sense of Understanding 69:212–233.Google Scholar
White, Roger (2003), “The Epistemic Advantage of Prediction over Accommodation”, The Epistemic Advantage of Prediction over Accommodation 112:653–683.Google Scholar
Williams, Mary B. (1973), “Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory”, Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory 40:518–573.Google Scholar
Woodward, Jim (2002), “Explanation”, in Machamer, Peter K. and Silberstein, Michael (eds.), The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of Science. Oxford: Blackwell, 37–54.Google Scholar