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Hypothesis Testing, “Dutch Book” Arguments, and Risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Daniel Malinsky
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Abstract

“Dutch Book” arguments and references to gambling theorems are typical in the debate between Bayesians and scientists committed to “classical” statistical methods. These arguments have rarely convinced non-Bayesian scientists to abandon certain conventional practices (like fixed-level null hypothesis significance testing), partially because many scientists feel that gambling theorems have little relevance to their research activities. In other words, scientists “don’t bet.” This article examines one attempt, by Schervish, Seidenfeld, and Kadane, to progress beyond such apparent stalemates by connecting “Dutch Book”–type mathematical results with principles actually endorsed by practicing experimentalists.

Type
Confirmation Theory
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 82 , Issue 5 , December 2015 , pp. 917 - 929
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

†

I would like to thank Liam Kofi Bright, David Danks, Greg Gandenberger, Clark Glymour, and Teddy Seidenfeld for enlightening discussions on the topic of this article and comments on earlier drafts.

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