Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-j824f Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T09:30:29.697Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

When Conflicts Do Not Overspill: The Case of Jordan

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 December 2019

Petter Nesser Open the ORCID record for Petter Nesser [Opens in a new window]  and
Henrik Gråtrud
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors—who conspire with the enemies of Islam—and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub “calibrated repression” is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keeping other domestic jihadist elements in check through co-optation. The regime restrains the use of force against less acute threats and displays some leniency towards radicals when the situation allows. Our findings speak to the broader literature on spillover and offer insights into the understudied topic of mechanisms limiting spillover in high-risk environments.

Type
Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 19 , Issue 2 , June 2021 , pp. 492 - 506
Copyright
© American Political Science Association 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

*

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EFLNUM

They would like to thank colleagues at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and the University of Oslo, their Jordanian interviewees, and the anonymous reviewers for excellent input and advice. The study was funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

References

Abu Rumman, Mohammad and Abu Hanieh, Hassan. 2013. The “Islamic Solution” in Jordan: Islamists, the State, and the Ventures of Democracy and Security. Jordan: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.Google Scholar
Abu Rumman, Mohammad and Shteiwi, Musa. 2018. Susiyulujiyya al-tatarruf wal-irhab fi al-Urdunn [The Sociology of Extremism and Terrorism in Jordan]. Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies.Google Scholar
Al-Ghad [Tomorrow]. 2018. “Itlaq kitab ‘Susiyulujiyya al-tatarruf wal-irhab fi al-Urdunn’ [Launch of the book The Sociology of Extremism and Terrorism in Jordan].” March 15.Google Scholar
Al-Jazeera. 2014. “Jordanian Jihadis Returning from Syria War Rattle U.S.-Aligned Kingdom,” April 17.Google Scholar
Albawaba [Tomorrow]. 2016. “Eyewitnesses Say Jordan Security Forces Walked into Ambush in Karak.” December 21.Google Scholar
Ammon. 2012. “Why Jordan Jihadists Prefer Yemen.” May 20.Google Scholar
BBC. 2004. “Jordanian Police Kill ‘Militants’.” April 21.Google Scholar
BBC. 2016. “Jordan Declares Syrian and Iraq Borders Closed Military Zones.” June 22.Google Scholar
Beardsley, Kyle. 2011. “Peacekeeping and the Contagion of Armed Conflict.” Journal of Politics 73(4): 1051–64.10.1017/S0022381611000764CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, Nathan. 2012. “The Spread of Violent Civil Conflict: Rare, State-Driven, and Preventable.” PhD dissertation, MIT.10.2139/ssrn.2061149CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, Nathan. 2013. “When Have Violent Civil Conflicts Spread? Introducing a Dataset of Substate Conflict Contagion.” Journal of Peace Research 50(6): 751–59.10.1177/0022343313493634CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Braithwaite, Alex. 2010. “Resisting Infection: How State Capacity Conditions Conflict Contagion.” Journal of Peace Research 47(3): 311–19.10.1177/0022343310362164CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel. 2015. “The Homecomings: What Happens When Arab Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria Return?” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(8): 581–602.10.1080/1057610X.2015.1031556CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel. 2016. “‘Death Solves All Problems’: The Authoritarian Model of Counterinsurgency.” Journal of Strategic Studies 39(1): 62–93.10.1080/01402390.2015.1068166CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Checkel, Jeffrey T. 2013. “Transnational Dynamics of Civil War.” In Transnational Dynamics of Civil War, ed. Checkel, J., 3–30. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139179089.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Choucair, Julia. 2006. “Illusive Reform: Jordan’s Stubborn Stability.” Research Report. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Crenshaw, Martha. 1981. “The Causes of Terrorism.” Comparative Politics 13(4): 379–99.10.2307/421717CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daily News . 2016. “Jordan Arrests Suspect of Al Baqa’a Attack.” June 7.Google Scholar
Danneman, Nathan and Hencken Ritter, Emily. 2014. “Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(2): 254–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daxecker, Ursula. 2017. “Dirty Hands: Government Torture and Terrorism.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61(6): 1261–89.10.1177/0022002715603766CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R. 2016. “The Strategic Use of State Repression and Political Violence.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics.10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.32CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jaegher, Kris and Hoyer, Britta. 2019. “Preemptive Repression: Deterrence, Backfiring, Iron Fists, and Velvet Gloves.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 63(2): 502–27.10.1177/0022002717750450CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2015. “Do Terrorists Win? Rebels’ Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes.” International Organization 69(3): 519–56.10.1017/S0020818315000089CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gade, Tine. 2017. “Limiting Violent Spillover in Civil Wars: The Paradoxes of Lebanese Sunni Jihadism, 2011–17.” Contemporary Arab Affairs 10(2): 187–206.10.1080/17550912.2017.1311601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guardian . 2006. “How Jordanians Hunted Down Their Hated Son.” June 11.Google Scholar
Hegghammer, Thomas. 2010. Jihad in Saudi Arabia: Violence and Pan-Islamism since 1979. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.21236/ADA515098CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hegghammer, Thomas. 2013. “Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Variation in Western Jihadists’ Choice between Domestic and Foreign Fighting.” American Political Science Review 107(1): 1–15.10.1017/S0003055412000615CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Donald. 2015. “Al-Qaeda and the Rise of ISIS.” Survival 57(2): 93–104.10.1080/00396338.2015.1026070CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2014. “Jordan: Terrorism Amendments Threaten Rights—Greatly Expand Categories of Terrorist Acts.” May 17. https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/17/jordan-terrorism-amendments-threaten-rights.Google Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2017. “Jordan: Executions Won’t End Terror Attacks, Murder.” March 5. https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/03/05/jordan-executions-wont-end-terror-attacks-murder.Google Scholar
Irfaa Sawtak [Raise Your Voice]. 2016. “Fi al-Urdunn, shabab yamaluna li-muharabat athar al-Irhab [In Jordan, Youth Work to Fight the Effects of Terrorism].” December 27.Google Scholar
Jihadology . 2015. “Al-I’tiṣām Media Presents a New Video Message from the Islamic State: ‘Message to Jordan.’” February 25. https://jihadology.net/2015/02/25/al-iti%E1%B9%A3am-media-presents-a-new-video-message-from-the-islamic-state-message-to-jordan/.Google Scholar
7iber [Ink]. 2016. “The Road to Karak Castle: The Path of the Attack and Backgrounds of Some of Those Involved.” December 20.Google Scholar
Jordan Times . 2017a. “15 Convicted Criminals, Terrorists Executed on Saturday.” March 4.Google Scholar
Jordan Times . 2017b. “Three Sentenced to Life for Plotting Terror Attacks.” April 12.Google Scholar
Jordan Times . 2017c. “Jordan 9th Safest Country Worldwide, 2nd among Arab States.” August 12.Google Scholar
Jordan Times . 2017d. “Jordan Combats Terror through Military-Ideological Approach—Momani.” November 5.Google Scholar
Jordan Times . 2018. “Jordan Cannot Take Any More Syrian Refugees—Officials.” June 25.Google Scholar
Kathman, Jacob D. 2011. “Civil War Diffusion and Regional Motivations for Intervention.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55(6): 847–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, Ruud. 1997. “Dynamics of Repression and Mobilization: The German Extreme Right in the 1990s.” Mobilization: An International Quarterly 2(2): 149–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lia, Brynjar. 2016. “Jihadism in the Arab World after 2011: Explaining Its Expansion.” Middle East Policy 23(4): 74–91.10.1111/mepo.12234CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2009. “Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(3): 331–62.10.1177/0022002708330881CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Magid, Aaron. 2016. “ISIS Meets Its Match? How Jordan Has Prevented Large-Scale Attacks.” Foreign Affairs, February 17.Google Scholar
Mail & Guardian (South Africa). 2007. “Jordanians Accused of Plot to Kill Bush.” March 7.Google Scholar
Majali, Hussein Hazza’, and Abu Rumman, Mohammad. 2016. “The Battle against Extremism and Terrorism.” Research Report. Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies.Google Scholar
Moghadam, Assaf and Fishman, Brian. 2011. Fault Lines in Global Jihad: Organizational, Strategic, and Ideological Fissures. New York: Routledge.10.4324/9780203814925CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ness, Marielle. 2017. “The Islamic State’s Two-Pronged Assault on Turkey.” Research Report. West Point: The Combating Terrorism Center. https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/01/CTC-Turkey-Final.pdf.Google Scholar
Olidort, Jacob. 2017. “Terrorists and Territory: What Jordan Can Teach Us about Managing Jihadists.” Lawfare, July 9.Google Scholar
Petra News Agency. 2017. “Amn al-dawla tarfa al-uquba 10 sanawat li-kull man yurawwij li-‘daish’ [The State Security Raises the Punishment to 10 Years for Anyone Who promotes ‘Daish’].” January 24.Google Scholar
Pew Research Center. 2009. “Declining Support for Bin Laden and Suicide Bombing.” Global Attitudes and Trends. September 10. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2009/09/10/rejection-of-extremism/ Google Scholar
Ray al-Yawm [Today’s Opinion]. 2017. “Bayanat li-qabail wa-ashair urdunniya didd sharit fidyu tahridiyy li-daish [Statements of Jordanian Tribes and Clans against Inflammatory IS-Video].” April 8.Google Scholar
Ritter, Emily Hencken and Conrad, Courtenay R.. 2016. “Preventing and Responding to Dissent: The Observational Challenges of Explaining Strategic Repression.” American Political Science Review 100(1): 85–99.10.1017/S0003055415000623CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robbins, Michael and Rubin, Lawrence. 2013. “The Rise of Official Islam in Jordan.” Politics, Religion & Ideology 14(1): 59–74.10.1080/21567689.2012.752359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robbins, Michael and Rubin, Lawrence. 2017. “The Ascendance of Official Islams.” Democracy and Security 13(4): 363–91.10.1080/17419166.2017.1360184CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosendorff, B. Peter and Todd, Sandler. 2004. “Too Much of a Good Thing? The Proactive Response Dilemma.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 657–71.10.1177/0022002704268278CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rothe, Chris. 2015. “Jordan and the New Front in the Fight against ISIS.” Research Report. Herzliya, Israel: International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.Google Scholar
Roya [Vision]. 2015. “Liqa hasriyy li-qanat Roya ma Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi [Roya’s Exclusive Interview with Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi].” February 6.Google Scholar
Roya 2018. “Mahkamat amn al-dawla tufassil fi akthar min 14 alf qadiyya al-am al-madi [The State Security Court Rule on More than 14,000 Cases Last Year].” January 8.Google Scholar
Ryan, Curtis R. 2018. Jordan and the Arab Uprisings: Regime Survival and Politics beyond the State. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salehyan, Idean. 2009. Rebels without Borders: Transnational Insurgencies in World Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean and Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian. 2006. “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War.” International Organization 60(2): 335–66.10.1017/S0020818306060103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schenker, David. 2013. “Jordan Bracing for More Spillover from Syria.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy. February 1.Google Scholar
Schenker, David. 2016. “Jordan’s Economy Was Always Shaky—the Refugee Crisis Has Only Made Things Worse.” Washington Institute, December. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/jordans-economy-was-always-shaky-the-refugee-crisis-has-only-made-things-wo Google Scholar
Schmid, Alex P. 2013. “The Definition of Terrorism.” In The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research, ed. Schmid, A., 39–98. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Sharp, Jeremy M. 2019. “Jordan: Background and U.S. Relations.” April 9. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Shlaim, Avi. 2008. Lion of Jordan: The Life of King Hussein in War and Peace. New York: Knopf.Google Scholar
Solingen, Etel. 2012. “Of Dominoes and Firewalls: The Domestic, Regional, and Global Politics of International Diffusion.” International Studies Quarterly 56(4): 631–44.10.1111/isqu.12034CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sowell, Kirk H. 2015. “Jordanian Salafism and the Jihad in Syria.” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology 18:1–71.Google Scholar
Sowell, Kirk H. 2017. “Downplaying Jihad in Jordan’s Educational Curriculum, 2013-2017.” Perspectives on Terrorism 11(6): 154–66.Google Scholar
Speckhard, Anne. 2017. “The Jihad in Jordan: Drivers of Radicalization into Violent Extremism in Jordan.” Research Report. Washington, DC: International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism.Google Scholar
Tal, Nachman. 2005. Radical Islam in Egypt and Jordan. Brighton, UK: Sussex Academic Press.Google Scholar
Terill, Andrew W. 2008. “Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability.” Research Report. Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College.Google Scholar
Tumelty, Paul. 2006. “The Rise and Fall of Foreign Fighters in Chechnya.” Terrorism Monitor 4(2): 8–10.Google Scholar
U.S. State Department. 2016. “Country Reports on Terrorism 2015.” Report. Bureau of Counterterroriam and Countering Violent Extremism. Washington, DC. https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/258249.pdf Google Scholar
U.S. State Department. 2017. “Summary: U.S. Assistance to Jordan.” February 28. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Wagemakers, Joas. 2012. A Quietist Jihadi: The Ideology and Influence of Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagemakers, Joas. 2014. “A Terrorist Organization that Never Was: The Jordanian ‘Bay’at al-Imam’ Group.” Middle East Journal 68(1): 59–75.10.3751/68.1.13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagemakers, Joas. 2018. “Jihadi-Salafism in Jordan and the Syrian Conflict: Divisions Overcome Unity.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 41(3): 191–212.10.1080/1057610X.2017.1283197CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Elisabeth J. 2013. “Transnational Dynamics of Civil War: Where Do We Go from Here?” In Transnational Dynamics of Civil War, ed. Checkel, J., 231–258. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139179089.013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Values Survey Association. 2015. “Social Values and Attitudes in the MENA Region.” WVS-6 Report, 90. Stockholm: World Values Survey Association.Google Scholar
Yayla, Ahmet S. 2017. “The Reina Nightclub Attack and the Islamic State Threat to Turkey.” CTC Sentinel 10(3): 9–16.Google Scholar
Yitzhak, Ronen. 2016. “The War against Terrorism and For Stability of the Hashemite Regime: Jordanian Intelligence Challenges in the 21st Century.” International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 29(2): 213–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yom, Sean and Sammour, Katrina. 2016. “The Social Terrain of Islamist Radicalization: Insights from Jordan.” Lawfare, August 21.Google Scholar
Yom, Sean and Sammour, Katrina. 2017. “Counterterrorism and Youth Radicalization in Jordan: Social and Political Dimensions.” CTC Sentinel 10(4): 25–30.Google Scholar
Young, William, Stebbins, David, Frederick, Bryan A. and al-Shahery, Omar, 2014. “Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors That Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence.” Research Report. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Nesser and Gråtrud Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EFLNUM
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material 1

Download Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 132.3 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material 2

Download Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 637.5 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material

Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material 3

Download Nesser and Gråtrud supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 223.7 KB