Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T18:57:04.516Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Terrorism and Civil War: A Spatial and Temporal Approach to a Conceptual Problem

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 May 2012

Michael G. Findley  and
Joseph K. Young
Michael G. Findley
Affiliation:
Brigham Young University. E-mail: [email protected]
Joseph K. Young
Affiliation:
School of Public Affairs atAmerican University. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

What is the relationship between civil war and terrorism? Most current research on these topics either explicitly or implicitly separates the two, in spite of compelling reasons to consider them together. In this paper, we examine the extent to which terrorism and civil war overlap and then unpack various temporal and spatial patterns. To accomplish this, we use newly geo-referenced terror event data to offer a global overview of where and when terrorist events happen and whether they occur inside or outside of civil war zones. Furthermore, we conduct an exploratory analysis of six separate cases that have elements of comparability but also occur in unique contexts, which illustrate some of the patterns in terrorism and civil war. The data show a high degree of overlap between terrorism and ongoing civil war and, further, indicate that a substantial amount of terrorism occurs prior to civil wars in Latin America, but yet follows civil war in other regions of the world. While the study of terrorism and of civil war mostly occurs in separate scholarly communities, we argue for more work that incorporates insights from each research program and we offer a possibility for future research by considering how geo-referenced terror and civil war data may be utilized together. More generally, we expect these results to apply to a wide variety of attitudes and behaviors in contentious politics.

Type
Research Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , June 2012 , pp. 285 - 305
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abrahms, Max. 2006. “Why Terrorism Does Not Work.” International Security 31(2): 42–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alvarez, Alberto Martin. 2010. “From Revolutionary War to Democratic Revolution: The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) in El Salvador.” Berghof Transition Series 9: 1–37.Google Scholar
Arnold, Guy. 1995. Wars in the Third World since 1945. London: Cassell.Google Scholar
Asal, Victor, and Rethemeyer, Karl. 2008. “The Nature of the Beast: Organizational Structures and the Lethality of Terrorist Attacks.” Journal of Politics 70: 437–449.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjørgo, Tore. 2005. “Introduction.” In Root Causes of Terrorism: Myths, Reality and Ways Forward, ed. pp, Tore Bjørgo. London: Routledge. 1–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, Mia. 2005. Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Brogan, Patrick. 1998. World Conflicts. 3rd ed.London: Bloomsbury.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, and Hoeffler, Anke. 2001. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” World Bank Working Paper.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul, Hoeffler, Anke, and Söderbom, Måns. 2004. “On the Duration of Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 253–273.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cunningham, David. 2006. “Veto Players and Civil War Duration.” American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 875–892.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Degregori, Carlos Ivan. 1998. “Harvesting Storms: Peasant Rondas and the Defeat of Sendero Luminoso in Ayacucho.” In Shining and Other Paths, ed. Durham, Steve J. Stern., NC: Duke University Press 128–157.Google Scholar
del Pino, Ponciano. 1998. “Family, Culture, and ‘Revolution’: Everyday Life with Sendero Luminoso.” In Shining and Other Paths, ed. Durham, Steve J. Stern., pp, NC: Duke University Press. 158–192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, and Sobek, David. 2004. “The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome.” Journal of Peace Research 41(3): 303–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dohrn, Bernardine, Ayers, Billy, Jones, Jeff, and Sojourn, Celia. 1974. “Prairie Fire: The Politics of Revolutionary Anti-Imperialism: Political Statement of the Weather Underground.” 1–153.Google Scholar
Downes, Alexander. 2004. “The Problem with Negotiated Settlements to Ethnic Civil Wars.” Security Studies 13(4): 230–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, George, and Stedman, Stephen. 2002. “Evaluation Issues in Peace Implementation.” In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements, ed. Stedman, Stephen, Rothchild, Donald and Boulder, Elizabeth Cousens., pp, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.. 43–69.Google Scholar
Drakos, Konstantinos, and Gofas, Andreas. 2006a. “The Devil You Know but Are Afraid to Face: Underreporting Bias and its Distorting Effects on the Study of Terrorism.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(5): 714–735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drakos, Konstantinos, and Gofas, Andreas. 2006b. “In Search of the Average Transnational Terrorist Attack Venue.” Defence and Peace Economics 17(2): 73–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enders, Walter, and Sandler, Todd. 1993. “The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis.” American Political Science Review 87(4): 829–844.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enders, Walter, and Sandler, Todd. 2006. The Political Economy of Terrorism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(3): 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97: 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Findley, Michael. 2011. “Spoiling the Peace After Civil War.” Unpublished Manuscript: Brigham Young University (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Findley, Michael, and Young, Joseph K.. 2011. “Terrorism, Democracy, and Credible Commitments.” International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 357–378.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Findley, Michael G., and Young, Joseph K.. 2012. “More Combatant Groups, More Terror? Empirical Tests of an Outbidding Logic.” Terrorism and Political Violence.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortna, Page. 2011. “Do Terrorists Win? Rebels' Use of Terrorism and Civil War Outcomes.” Unpublished Manuscript: Department of Political Science, Columbia University.Google Scholar
Gamson, William. 1975. Strategy of Social Protest. Homewood, IL: The Dorsey Press.Google Scholar
Gerring, John. 2004. “What is a Case Study and What is it Good for?” American Political Science Review 98(2): 341–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerring, John. 2007. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Goodwin, Jeff. 2005. “A Theory of Categorical Terrorism.” Social Forces 84(4): 2027–2046.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoffman, Bruce. 2006. Inside Terrorism. 2nd ed.New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Holiday, David, and Stanley, William. 1993. “Building the Peace: Preliminary Lessons from El Salvador.” Journal of International Affairs 46(2): 415–438.Google Scholar
Honwana, João. 2002. “Mozambique: What Nexus among Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Development.” In The Causes of War and the Consequences of Peacekeeping in Africa, ed. pp, Ricard René Laremont. Heinemann. 195–221.Google Scholar
Horgan, John. 2005. The Psychology of Terrorism. New York: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald. 2003. The Deadly Ethnic Riot. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Macartan, and Weinstein, Jeremy. 2006. “Handling and Manhandling in Civil War.” American Political Science Review 100(3): 429–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jenkins, Brian M. 1975. “International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict.” In International Terrorism and World Security, ed. Carlton, David and pp, Carlo Schaerf. New York: Wiley. 19–41.Google Scholar
Juergensmeyer, Mark. 2001. Terror in the Mind of God. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Ordered from library.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 1999. “Wanton and Senseless: The Logic of Massacres in Algeria.” Rationality and Society 11(3): 243–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 2003. “The Ontology of ‘Political Violence’: Action and Identity in Civil Wars.” Perspectives on Politics 1: 475–494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 2004. “The Paradox of Terrorism in Civil War.” The Journal of Ethics 8: 97–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis N., and Balcells, Laia. 2010. “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict.” American Political Science Review 104(3): 415–429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydd, Andrew, and Walter, Barbara. 2006. “The Strategies of Terrorism.” International Security 31(1): 49–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kydd, Andrew, and Walter, Barbara. 2002. “Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence.” International Organization 56: 263–296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LaFree, Gary, and Dugan, Laura. 2007. “Introducing the Global Terrorism Database.” Terrorism and Political Violence 19: 181–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lai, Brian. 2007. “Draining the Swamp: An Empirical Examination of the Production of International Terrorism, 1968–1998.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 24(4): 297–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David. 2002. “Rational Extremism: Understanding Terrorism in the Twenty First Century.” International Organization 56: 15–29.Google Scholar
Lake, David. 2003. “International Relations Theory and Internal Conflict: Insights from the Interstices.” International Studies Review 5: 81–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Quan. 2005. “Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidences.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49: 278–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McAdam, Doug, and Su, Yang. 2002. “The War at Home: Antiwar Protests and Congressional Voting, 1965 to 1973.” American Sociological Review 67(5): 696–721.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McClintock, Cynthia. 1998. Revolutionary Movements in Latin America: El Salvador's FMLN & Peru's Shining Path. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Mickolus, Edward F., Sandler, Todd, Murdock, Jean, and Flemming, Peter A.. 2008. “International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), 1968–2007.” http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/11574 Dunn Loring, VA: Vinyard Software [Distributor] V1 [Version].Google Scholar
Most, B.A., and Starr, H.. 1984. “International Relations Theory, Foreign Policy Substitutability, and “Nice” Laws.” World Politics: A Quarterly Journal of International Relations 36(3): 383–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norton, Augustus Richard. 2007. Hezbollah: A Short History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert. 2003. “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism.” American Political Science Review 97: 343–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poe, Steven C., and Tate, C. Neil. 1994. “Repression of Human Rights and Personal Integrity in the 1980's: A Global Analysis.” American Political Science Review 88: 853–872.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Race, Jeffrey. 1973. War Comes to Long An: Revolutionary Conflict in a Vietnamese Province. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Rasler, Karen. 1996. “Concessions, Repression, and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution.” American Sociological Review 61(1): 132–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rød, Jan Ketil. 2003. “ViewConflicts: Software for Visualising Spatiotemporal Data on Armed Conflicts.” Paper prepared for presentation at the Joint Sessions of Workshops European Consortium for Political Research, Edinburgh, UK. 28. March 2. April.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2004a. “Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War.” Perspectives on Politics 2(2): 259–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2004b. “What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 814–858.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2005. “Using Case Studies to Refine and Expand the Theory of Civil War.” In Understanding Civil War: Volume 1 Africa, ed. Paul Collier and Nicholas Sambanis. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.Google Scholar
Sambanis, Nicholas. 2008. “Terrorism and Civil War.” In Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness, ed. Keefer, Philip and Loayza, Norman. New York: Cambridge.Google Scholar
Sánchez-Cuenca, Ignacio, and De la Calle, Luis. 2009. “Domestic Terrorism: The Hidden Side of Political Violence.” Annual Review of Political Science 12: 31–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandler, Todd. 1995. “On the Relationship Between Democracy and Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 7(4): 1–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmid, Alex, and Jongman, Albert. 2005. Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors, Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, and Literature. Piscataway, NJ: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Seawright, Jason, and Gerring, John. 2008. “Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research.” Political Research Quarterly 61(2): 294–308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, W.D. 1996. The Protection Racket State: Elite Politics, Military Extortion, and Civil War in El Salvador. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.Google Scholar
Stephan, Maria J., and Chenoweth, Erica. 2008. “Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict.” International Security 33(1): 7–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney T. 2007. “Inside insurgencies: Politics and violence in an age of civil war.” Perspectives on Politics 5(3): 587–600.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 2003. The Politics of Collective Violence. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 2004. “Terror, Terrorism, Terrorists.” Sociological Theory 22(1): 5–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Turk, Austin. 2004. “Sociology of Terrorism.” Annual Review of Sociology 30: 271–286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uppsala. 2011. Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala Conflict Database. http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase. Uppsala University. Accessed Feb 7, 2011.Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin. 2000. “Final Solutions: The Causes of Mass Killing and Genocide.” Security Studies 9(3): 1–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Victoroff, Jeff. 2005. “The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological Approaches.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49: 3–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara. 1997. “The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement.” International Organization 51(3): 335–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ward, Michael D., and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2008. Spatial Regression Models. Number 155 in “Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences”Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinberg, Leonard, Pedahzur, Ami, and Hirsch-Hoefler, Sivan. 2004. “The Challenges of Conceptualizing Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence 16(4): 777–794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2003. Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zahar, Marie Joelle. 2002. “Peace by Unconventional Means: Lebanon's Ta'if Agreement.” In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements, ed. Stedman, Stephen, Rothchild, Donald, and pp, Elizabeth Cousens. Lynne Rienner Press.. 567–597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar