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The Political Implications of Demographic and Industrial Developments in Soviet Central Asia*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2018

Michael Rywkin*
Affiliation:
Russian Area Studies, City College of New York

Extract

Western studies of Russian or Soviet Central Asia originated in England, spearheaded by Anglo-Russian rivalry in the area in the second part of the nineteenth century. British research was dominant until after World War II, covering the field from classical academic study (Royal Central Asian Society) to current affairs (Col. Wheeler's Central Asian Research Center).

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 1979 by the Association for the Study of the Nationalities (USSR and East Europe) Inc. 

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References

Notes

1. Soviet sources provide a list of “notorious authors” in the field. Tuzmukhamedov, R., How the National Question Was Solved in Soviet Central Asia (Moscow: Progress Publ., 1973), p. 19, lists: Aspaturian, Vernon V., Zenkowsky, Serge, Allworth, Edward, Park, Alexander G., Pipes, Richard, Rywkin, Michael, and Bacon, Elisabeth in the United States; Olaf Caroe, Walter Kolarz, J. A. Newth, Hugh Seton-Watson, Geoffrey Wheeler, Alex Nove and Ann Sheehy in Great Britain; Alexandre Bennigsen, Hélène Carrere d'Encausse, Chantal Lemercier-Quelquejay in France; Boris Meissner, and Stefen Wurth in the Federal Republic of Germany.Google Scholar

2. Russia in Central Asia (New York and London: Collier-Macmillan, 1963) and articles in Problems of Communism, Canadian Slavonic Papers, and other journals.Google Scholar

3. Besemeres, J. F., “Population Politics in the USSR,” Soviet Union (U. of Pittsburgh), II, 1, 2 (1975), p. 62, points out that this could involve “a detailed system of labor control, computerized record-keeping and an elaborate network of sanctions, “similar to the Leningrad-Kaluga experiment.”CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4. My principle source in that field: Bandera, N. and Melnyk, Z. L. (eds.), The Soviet Economy in Regional Perspective (New York: Praeger, 1973)Google Scholar

5. Bruk, S. I., “Etnodemograficheskie protsessy v SSSR (po materialam perepisi 1970 goda),” Sovetskaia etnografiia, N. 4 (1971), pp. 1415.Google Scholar

6. Taagepera, Rein, “National Difference within Soviet Demographic Trends,” Soviet Studies, vol. 20, no. 4 (Glasgow, April 1969), p. 486.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

7. Feshbach, Murray and Rapawy, Stephen, “Soviet Population and Manpower Trends and Politics,” “Soviet Economy in a New Perspective (Washington D.C.: A Compendium of Papers submitted to the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress, 1976), p. 126.Google Scholar

8. Some Soviet authors disagree and predict future decline in Moslem birthrate. They attribute present-day high birthrates to the large number of nonworking women and to the preference for large families. The same was formerly true even for the Russians. See Grazhdannikov, E. D., Prognosticheskie modeli sot-sial'no- demograficheskikh protsessov (Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1974), pp. 100101.Google Scholar

9. Feshbach, and Rapawy, , “Soviet Population,” pp. 128-30.Google Scholar

10. Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, p. 157.Google Scholar

11. Shpiliuk, V. A., Mezrespublikanskaia migratsiia i sblizhenie natsii v SSSR (Lviv: Vishcha Shkola, 1975), pp. 81ff. In 1965 labor-surplus areas have been identified as above plus Belorussia and Lithuania, and the cities of Moscow, Leningrad, and Odessa (according to Manevich in Voprosy Ekonomiki, N.6, 1965).Google Scholar

12. Arutunian, Iu. V., “Sotsial ‘no-ekonomicheskie usloviia razvitiia etnicheskikh protsessov v SSSR,” Sovremennye etnicheskie protsessy v SSSR (Moscow: Akademiia Nauk, 1974), p. 127.Google Scholar

13. Feshbach and Rapawy, “Soviet Population,” p, 148.Google Scholar

14. Ibid., pp. 128-29.Google Scholar

15. Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi naseleniia 1970 goda (Moscow: Statistika vol. VII, p. 184 (data for titular nationalities of Union Republics only).Google Scholar

16. Chernova, E., “Zavtrashnii den’ trudovykh resursov,” “Sovetskaia Kirgiziia, 29.6.77; Khonaliev, N., “Migratsiia naseleniia,” Kommunist Tadzhikistana, 17.3.77.Google Scholar

17. Feshbach and Rapawy, “Soviet Population,” p. 124.Google Scholar

18. Shpiliuk, Migratsiia, p. 63.Google Scholar

19. Khorev, B. S. and Moiseenko, V. M. (eds.), Migratsionnaia podvizhnost’ naseleniia SSSR (Moscow: Statistika, 1974), p. 64, mentions that rural areas of Kirgiziia inhabited by Russians have often attracted Siberian peasants, who later resettled in the cities of Central Asia.Google Scholar

20. Kozlov, V. I., “Izmeneniia v rasseianii i urbanizatsii narodov SSSR kak usloviia i faktory etnicheskikh protsessov,” Sovremennye etniches kie protsessy v SSSR, p. 153.Google Scholar

21. Called by Critchlow “la revanche des berceaux”, by others “victory in the bedroom”.Google Scholar

22. Perevedentsev, V., “Migratsiia naseleniia i ispol'zovanie trudovykh resursov,” Voprosy ekonomiki, N. 9 (1970). See also his earlier “Spor o perepisi,” Literaturnaia Gazeta (Jan. 1, 1967).Google Scholar

23. Szporluk, Roman, “The Nations of the USSR in 1970,’ Survey, No. 81 (Autumn 1971), p. 70.Google Scholar

24. For a good Soviet bibliography on migration problems, see Staroverov, V. I., Sotsialisticheskie problemy derevni. Metodologiia, metodika, opyt analiza migratsii sel'skogo naseleniia (Moscow: Nauka, 1975), pp. 263-83. It also includes a list of 3 books and 14 articles by Perevedentsev.Google Scholar

25. Lewis, Robert A., Rowland, Richard H. and Clem, Ralph S., Nationality and Population Change in Russia and the USSR. An evaluation of Census Date, 1897–1970 (New York and London: Praeger, 1976), esp. pp 350-87.Google Scholar

26. Ibid., p. 355. See also Feshbach and Rapawy, “Soviet Population,” pp. 128-129.Google Scholar

27. Soviet sources insist that the necessary rate of growth has been achieved. Trapeznikov, G. R., “Uzbekistan epokhi razvitogo sotsializma,” Voprosy istorii, No. 2 (1977), p. 11, speaks of a 10% increase in irrigated land surfaces in Uzbekistan “during the last five years”.Google Scholar

28. Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality, p. 357.Google Scholar

29. Ibid., p. 358.Google Scholar

30. Ibid., p. 367-68.Google Scholar

31. Ibid., p. 371.Google Scholar

32. Lewis, Robert A., Rowland, Richard H. and Clem, Ralph S., “Modernization, Population Change and Nationality in Soviet Central Asia and Kazakhstan,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 18, nos. 2, 3 (1975), p. 295.Google Scholar

33. Ibid., referring to Shibatuni, Tamotsu and Kwan, Kian M., Ethnic Stratification: A Comparitive Approach (New York: Macmillan, 1965).Google Scholar

34. Ibid., pp. 297-98.Google Scholar

35. Sheehy, Quoting Ann, “Some Aspects of Regional Development in Soviet Central Asia,” Slavid Review, No. 31 (Sept. 1972), pp. 589-60.Google Scholar

36. Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality and Population Change …, p. 375.Google Scholar

37. Ibid., p. 361.Google Scholar

38. Ibid., p. 481.Google Scholar

39. Feshbach, Murray, “Prospects for Massive Out-Migration from Central Asia During the Next Decade” (Paper for U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Feb. 1977).Google Scholar

40. Ibid., pp. 45.Google Scholar

41. Ibid., p. 7. Among them Kostiakov, V. G. in Seriia ekonomicheskaia No. 4 (1971), pp. 89-90; and Trudovye resursy piatiletki (Moscow: Politizdat, 1976), p. 56, as quoted by Feshbach, “Prospects.”Google Scholar

42. Planovoe khoziaistvo, No. 11 (Nov. 1976), pp. 1922, as quoted by Feshbach. Nevertheless natural gas and cotton, the most important resources of the area, are exported to the RSFSR in their raw form rather than serving to develop new chemical and textile factories (Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, p. 28).Google Scholar

43. Feshbach, “Prospects,” p. 17.Google Scholar

44. Ibid., p. 18. See also Wesley Fisher, “Ethnic Consciousness and Intermarriage: Correlates of Endogamy among Major Soviet Nationalities,” Soviet Studies, vol. 29, no. 3 (July 1977), p. 398, for general endogamy index. Bennigsen attributes it to obedience to Shariat, even among nonbelievers (see below).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

45. Feshbach, “Prospects,” pp. 1920. See also Alexander Bennigsen, “Islam in the Soviet Union. The Religious Factor and the Nationality Problem in the Soviet Union,” in Bociurkiw, Bohdan and Strong, John W. (eds.), Religion and Atheism in the USSR and Eastern Europe (U. of Toronto Press, 1975), p. 97.Google Scholar

46. According to Ekonomicheskie nauki, N. 1 (Jan. 1972), p. 52, the cost of a basket of goods for a family of four was in Central Asia 90.2% of that of central Russia (as quoted by Feshbach, “Prospects”).Google Scholar

47. Feshbach, “Prospects,” p. 21.Google Scholar

48. Ibid., p. 23.Google Scholar

49. Topilin, A. V., Territorial'noe pereraspredelenie trudovykh resursov v SSSR (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1975).Google Scholar

50. Ibid., pp. 13ff and 122ff.Google Scholar

51. See Sadoshenko, S., “Na stroiku ne pribyli,” Kommunist Tadjikistana, 3.7.77.Google Scholar

52. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 127.Google Scholar

53. Ibid., p. 47.Google Scholar

54. Ibid., p. 92.Google Scholar

55. Ibid., pp. 4445, 56. For every 100 people who left Central Asia in 1959-70, there came to Central Asia from the rest of the USSR — 113 persons, RSFSR — 124 persons, Far East — 112 persons, East Siberia — 153 persons, and West Siberia — 159 persons.Google Scholar

56. Ibid., p. 92.Google Scholar

57. The importance of such factors is denied by Perevedentsev, who insists that it is the search for better living standards and not labor shortages that attracts migration. See Perevedentsev, V. I., “Sovremennaia migratsiia naseleniia v SSSR,” Narodonaselenie i ekonomika (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1967), p. 104.Google Scholar

58. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 63.Google Scholar

59. Ibid., p. 45. Reported were 100 new arrivals for every 88 moving out of the area.Google Scholar

60. Ibid., p. 8384. Central Asia and Transcaucasia together.Google Scholar

61. Ibid., pp. 6263.Google Scholar

62. Ibid., pp. 122129.Google Scholar

63. Ibid., p. 153.Google Scholar

64. Ibid., p. 120.Google Scholar

65. As reported by Galetskaia, R., “Demograficheskaia politika i ee napravleniia,” Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 8 (1975), pp. 149-52.Google Scholar

66. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 149, remarks that Central Asians show “little desire” for outside work.Google Scholar

67. Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 75.Google Scholar

68. Kazias, Juozas A., “Social Distance Among Ethnic Groups,” in Allworth, Edward (ed.), Nationality Group Survival in Multi-Ethnic States. Shifting Support Patterns in the Soviet Baltic Regions (New York and London: Praeger, 1977), p. 246.Google Scholar

69. Bzhilianskii, Iu. A., Problemy narodonaseleniia pri sotsializme. Politiko-ekonomicheskii analiz (Moscow: Mysl', 1974), p. 177, insists that due to “irrational utilization of labor” immigrants to labor-rich Central Asia have no difficulty finding jobs.Google Scholar

70. Kazias, “Social Distance,” p. 246, considers that some Central Asian Germans already began to move to more ethnically akin Baltic areas.Google Scholar

71. See Shorish, Mobin, “Soviet Development Strategies in Central Asia,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 17, nos. 2, 3 (1975), pp. 410ff.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

72. Critchlow, James, “Uzbeks and Russians,” Ibid., p. 368.Google Scholar

73. In 1967, among those who left Central Asia for Kiev (Ukraine), 20-30% were Ukrainians, only 7-10% Moslems, and the remainder obviously other Europeans (Russians, Jews, Maybe Germans). See Onikienko, V. V., Kompleksnoe issledovanie migratsionnykh protsessov. Analiz migratsii naseleniia Ukr. SSR. (Moscow: Statistika, 1973), pp. 39, 152.Google Scholar

Rybakovskii, L. L., Regional'nyi analiz migratsii (Moscow: Statistika 1973), p. 61, states that 7.3% of all immigrants to the Far East in the 1960s came from Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Transcaucasia. The 1970 census, however, shows very few Moslems living in that area.Google Scholar

Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi …, 7:67, show small positive balances for the RSFSR in its population exchanges with Central Asia and Kazalhstan (based on counts of new arrivals, residing less than 2 years in the new area): balance with Kazakhstan — + 36,000, balance with Uzbekistan — + 44,000, balance with Turkmenistan — +7,000, balance with Tadjikistan — +11,000. However, the total number of Uzbeks living in the RSFSR in 1970 corresponds to RSFSR's positive balance of population exchange with Uzbekistan (as above). One cannot assume that they have just arrived. In addition, the largest concentration of Uzbeks in the RSFSR is in Moscow (6,000), not at Siberian stroika's. Google Scholar

74. Rasulov, D., ‘V bor'be za razvitie proizvoditel'nykh sil respubliki, Kommunist, No. 15 (1974), pp. 6263, sees orgnabor style migration as only one of the four ways to solve Central Asian labor surplus problems, the other three being: (1) traditional industrialization; (2) labor-intensive industries; (3) increase in areas under irrigation.Google Scholar

Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 70, foresees 63 millions of Central Asian Moslems facing 11-12 millions “Russians” (Europeans?) by the year 2000.Google Scholar

75. Ibid., p. 75.Google Scholar

76. Ibid., p. 62.Google Scholar

77. Ibid., pp. 71 and 75.Google Scholar

78. Conversation with Bennigsen, June 1977. Lewis’ arguments about the unsuitability of northern Kazakhstan for Uzbek settlement become irrelevant in such a case.Google Scholar

79. Pavlevsky, Jovan, Le niveau de vie en URSS de la revolution d'octobre a 1980 (Paris: Economica, 1975), p. 155; Bandera and Melnik, Soviet Economy, p. 178. Total income per kolkhoz family (USSR = 100: RSFSR — 104, Central Asia — 147.6- 188.3 (in 1963) (without Kazakhstan); Total income from private plots (1966) USSR = 100: RSFSR — 88, Central Asia — 91- 133 (without Kazakhstan)Google Scholar

80. Narodnoe khoziaistvo Uzbekskoi SSR v 1974 godu (Tashkent: izd. Uzbekistan, 1975), pp. 152, 161.Google Scholar

81. Bzhilianskii, Problemy, p. 169, mentions slightly over 1/3 of milk, meat and vegetables in the USSR as a whole (1969) produced by private plots.Google Scholar

82. According to Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality and Population Change…, p. 366, 11.0 per capita in the USSR as a whole vs. 8.8 in Central Asia (based on 1970 Soviet data).Google Scholar

83. Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR v 1974 godu (Moscow: Statistika, 1975), p. 587, and data on urban population by republics.Google Scholar

84. Average monthly wage according to Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, p. 174: USSR — 1965 - 100, 1970 - 100; RSFSR — 1965 − 102.6, 1970 − 103.4; Uzbekistan — 1965 − 92.4, 1970 − 93.4; Kazakhstan — 1965 − 105.5, 1970 − 99.2; Kirgiziia — 1965 − 92.3, 1970 − 90.5; Tadjikistan — 1965 − 95.4, 1970 − 96.7; Turkmenistan — 1965 − 103.6, 1970 − 104.9.Google Scholar

85. Nove, Alec and Newth, J. A., The Soviet Middle East: A Model for Development (London: Allen & Unwin, 1967), pp. 114, 120.Google Scholar

86. Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, pp. 99ff and 272, articles by Woroniak and Wagener.Google Scholar

87. Rywkin, Michael, “Religion, Modern Nationalism and Political Power in Soviet Central Asia,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 17, nos. 2 & 3 (1975), pp. 278-79.Google Scholar

For a study of ethnic recruitment for top party positions, see Miller, John H., “Cadres Policy in Nationality Areas. Recruitment of CPSU first and second secretaries in non-Russian republics of the USSR, “Soviet Studies” (Glasgow), vol. 29, no. 1 (Jan. 1977), pp. 336.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

88. Current involvment of Uzbek labor in the rejuvenation of non-black soil zone of European Russia seems to be mostly limited to Europeans residing in Uzbekistan (according to Sheehy, Ann, Radio Liberty, Munich).Google Scholar

89. Already in 1959-70, over 2/3 of village to city immigrants in Central Asia came from within the area (see Khorev and Moiseenko, Migratsionnaiapodvizhnost', p. 56).Google Scholar

90. Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 79.Google Scholar

91. Wixman, Ronald, “Recent Assimilation Trends in Soviet Central Asia,” in Allworth, Edward (ed.), The Nationality Question in Soviet Central Asia (New York: Praeger, 1975), p. 84.Google Scholar

92. See Gasprinskil, Ismail Bey, “Mebadi-yi temeddun-i Islamiyan-i Rus,” (transl. and annotated by Lazzerini, Edward J. in “Gädidism at the Turn of the Century,” Cahiers du Monde Russe et Soviétique vol. 16, no. 2 (April-June, 1975), p. 256.Google Scholar

93. Bennigsen, “Religious Factor,” p. 99.Google Scholar

94. Bromlei, Iu. V., “Etnicheskie aspekty sovremennykh natsional'nykh protsessov,” Istoriia SSSR (May/June 1977), p. 31, reports that in Turkmenistan 90% of children of Russian-Turkmen marriages are declared Turkmen.Google Scholar

95. Allworth, Edward, “Regeneration in Central Asia,” in Allworth (ed.), The Nationality Question …, pp. 9, 18.Google Scholar

See also Hallik, Klara, “Rol’ kul'turnykh sviazei v ukreplenii druzhby sovetskikh liudei,” Kommunist Estonii (No. 9, 1969), p. 36, for a discussion about possible Central Asian and not all-Soviet sliianie. Google Scholar

Also Bromlei, “Etnicheskie aspekty,” pp. 29 and 32, for “inter-ethnic integration” and local sliianie.Google Scholar